January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Requiem]

GEM trending west. 

 

If it goes east we're screwed, if it goes west we're screwed.

[HighlandExperience]

If the GEM and EURO agree will be fine.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like some light deformation band snow Tuesday AM.

[Esquimalt]

GEM shows a nice event for our Oregon folks on Wednesday. 

[TT-SEA]

GEM trending west. 

 

 

GEM is WAY west of its 12Z run.  

[BLI snowman]

Deformation zone over northern OR/southern WA on Monday night. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM is interesting at least. Maybe we do get something, maybe its just later in the week..Who knows...

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Well... GFS is a complete non-event.

 

The ball is in the ECMWF court now.   Because the 12Z ECMWF showed a nice event for most of us.  

 

Looks better than the 18z on Sunday, at this point I'd rather have a trend for the better on Sunday.

[Esquimalt]

Looks better than the 18z on Sunday, at this point I'd rather have a trend for the better on Sunday.

I think it has a chance of switching back.  We all know the flip flopping models do

[TT-SEA]

Looks better than the 18z on Sunday, at this point I'd rather have a trend for the better on Sunday.

 

 

Not for most of western WA and OR.  

 

Still too warm for snow on Sunday except for the NW interior.  

[TT-SEA]

What will the ECMWF show??   Million dollar question!

 

I cannot imagine it changing that dramatically from the 12Z run.   

[Perturbed Member]

Here was the 12z GEM

 

 

00z

[Esquimalt]

What will the ECMWF show??   Million dollar question!

 

I cannot imagine it changing that dramatically from the 12Z run.   

The 00Z GFS still brings decent cold to most.  It gets there in the end compared to other runs but it just takes a little longer. 

[Esquimalt]

00Z GEM highs still don't go above freezing for Victoria and Vancouver for monday and tuesday 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Not for most of western WA and OR.

 

Still too warm for snow on Sunday except for the NW interior.

 

And anywhere above 500 ft and that is alot of places besides north west interior.

[MossMan]

So I’m hearing everything from “non event” to “still looks decent” ...okay then.

[seattleweatherguy]

Monday afternoon... the low is chugging along down the coast just like the 18Z run.

 

The 00Z run is actually a little west of the 18Z run and less organized at this time... so this run is not as good.

 

That model shows snow right where I need it. Covers bothell/kenmore and north king south snohomish

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM is interesting. Gets close toward the end of the week too.

[Deweydog]

Reload!!!!

[Timmy]

Gem has a nice w Washington snowstorm Thursday

[Esquimalt]

Lol we get hammered with about 72 hours straight of snowfall on the GEM--no transition!!! 

[Perturbed Member]

Gem has a nice w Washington snowstorm Thursday

 

Turns to rain pretty quickly

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I like the GEM. Interesting. Never warms up, and would be a lot of snow up here.

[Esquimalt]

Lol 15 inches shown here on the GEM.  Wouldn't that be awesome. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Stays cool

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I think it has a chance of switching back.  We all know the flip flopping models do

 

Sure, but what's shown on Sunday is very close to a big snow maker for much of the island. Obviously would be much nicer if the low off the island held together and hugged the coast, but we could still some interesting dynamics along the Arctic boundary. Plus I'd be pretty surprised if a low like that didn't kick up some unexpected moisture over the low level outflow on Monday. The 0z GEM is amazing for this area later next week.

[Esquimalt]

Sure, but what's shown on Sunday is very close to a big snow maker for much of the island. Obviously would be much nicer if the low off the island held together and hugged the coast, but we could still some interesting dynamics along the Arctic boundary. Plus I'd be pretty surprised if a low like that didn't kick up some unexpected moisture over the low level outflow on Monday. The 0z GEM is amazing for this area later next week.

I agree. Gem is awesome, 15 inches here in the next 10 days. The NAM looked good with a deep low, however would have appreciated it being a little further north. A lot of people are overreacting here

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Deformation zone over northern OR/southern WA on Monday night.

Yeah, the EURO showed this deformation band the past of couple runs. So it's good to see the GFS start to pick up on this as well. These deformation bands can dump lots of snow if they setup right. This might be our best chance of good snow before the reload comes.

 

[GHweatherChris]

I told you all the smell of disappointment was gonna start a couple days ago, looks like it is there, just sayin.....

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hi bainbridgekid.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

850s bottom out around -7C in NW Oregon early next week. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Below freezing 925mb temperatures in the North Sound by 10am Saturday:

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I told you all the smell of disappointment was gonna start a couple days ago, looks like it is there, just sayin.....

 

Prophet.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

You keep claiming he incites stuff, yet you're the one who brought it up this time. Is there a reason you can't give it a break?

This is something that has been going on since you were 6 years old might want to stay out of it. Just sayin.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

850s Saturday are as cold as the early week trough.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Fraser outflow is rolling by Saturday night on the 0z WRF. Seems like the timing has moved up quite a bit:

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Onto the 00z EURO. Looking forward to seeing if it will keep showing that deformation band and where it sets up.

[TT-SEA]

Onto the 00z EURO. Looking forward to seeing if it will keep showing that deformation band and where it sets up.

Big ECMWF run coming up.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

You know the hit the fan when Jim makes no appearance.

[Bryant]

You know the s**t hit the fan when Jim makes no appearance.

Today has been unfortunate for sure. Luckily we still have 48 hours to see some shifting in the models