Hawkeye Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 FV3 good as well, 12z brings 0.50" up to I-80 in Iowa. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Amazing that I'm excited about 1-2" of snow lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 James76- that's what a dud winter does. But hey; got start somewhere!! Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 James76- that's what a dud winter does. But hey; got start somewhere!!Haha right? Hopefully the north trend continues. Euro will be interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 FV3 with a great run! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Ukmet from phone looks very good C.IA 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 FV3 with a great run!That is a big shift on fv3. Don't know if that is a curse though lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 FV3 with a great run!This run showing Atlanta and NW South Carolina getting a pretty good snow. If this were to happen it would shut it down for a couple days. Only reason I mention SC is my son goes to Clemson and while he was home on Christmas break there was no snow to be found and now that he goes back to school he might see snow...crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 This run showing Atlanta and NW South Carolina getting a pretty good snow. If this were to happen it would shut it down for a couple days. Only reason I mention SC is my son goes to Clemson and while he was home on Christmas break there was no snow to be found and now that he goes back to school he might see snow...crazy.That's crazy! I heard The Weather Channel talking about this possibility this morning. Strange pattern but things will return to normal soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Ok if the Nam wins out we are gonna have a lot of surprised people around my area. Nobody is even talking about this storm! @Tom, crazy how the LRC is working to a T my man. Expect another major storm sometime next week as my area got blasted by a storm the week after the Blizzard in Kansas back in November! This system is NOT the Nov 25-26 bliz. Sorry, but do the math peeps. Take Nov 25 and add 55 days = Jan 18th. Otherwise, happy tracking to everyone! Nice to see excitement for a change across (most of) our sub. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 12z UK, nearly identical to 00z. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Confluence is killing this storm for MI peeps. For those that do get it, enjoy it! Edit: My niece who is in Vanderbilt, University in Tennessee told me this morning that a couple of inches are likely there. Trucks are preparing w salt. Yep. We finally get a cold HP to the north and it positions poorly. We get to join MN & WI peeps on the side-lines unless there's a drastic shift when the wave gets onshore and into the ROAB network. But. not. holding. breath. on. that. Meanwhile, gonna ride my 1" line like there's no tomorrow Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Hawkeye, I think that ydays Ukie. On phone and I am having difficulty getting today's to load Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 If I can get 4" out of this, I'd be one happy camper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 This system is NOT the Nov 25-26 bliz. Sorry, but do the math peeps. Take Nov 25 and add 55 days = Jan 18th. Otherwise, happy tracking to everyone! Nice to see excitement for a change across (most of) our sub.Gary stated a few weeks ago that the cycle length is 45 days, so that would actually match up perfectly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 This run showing Atlanta and NW South Carolina getting a pretty good snow. If this were to happen it would shut it down for a couple days. Only reason I mention SC is my son goes to Clemson and while he was home on Christmas break there was no snow to be found and now that he goes back to school he might see snow...crazy.Haha no doubt. My brother lives by Raleigh, NC and everything is shut down when they get an inch of snow. He gets a kick out of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Through 60hr. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Gary stated a few weeks ago that the cycle length is 45 days, so that would actually match up perfectly. Tom also posted that that estimate seemed quite a bit off. STL didn't get hit by the bliz, but they did score big with the earlier closed low. Don't recall exact dates tho. Same day NYC got smacked unexpectedly with a thump snow. I do remember that. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Euro cut back on totals here in C.Ia Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Euro cut back on totals here in C.Ia yeah that no joke 3-6 to 1-2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Euro being erratic. Usually it's pretty consistent in this time frame. Significant change from 00z run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Man, this happens a lot and it's annoying. One model will be the most bullish for days while others are weaker/drier. Then, as we approach the event, the dry models will suddenly become stronger and wetter, but the formerly bullish model goes back the other way and is now the weakest. This new euro is a bummer, has CR down to 0.20 again. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Man, this happens a lot and it's annoying. One model will be the most bullish for days while others are weaker/drier. Then, as we approach the event, the dry models will suddenly become stronger and wetter, but the formerly bullish model goes back the other way and is now the weakest. This new euro is a bummer, has CR down to 0.20 again. I think the dry air to the north wins out. I wouldn't expect much if you are on the northern fringe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 This system is NOT the Nov 25-26 bliz. Sorry, but do the math peeps. Take Nov 25 and add 55 days = Jan 18th. Otherwise, happy tracking to everyone! Nice to see excitement for a change across (most of) our sub.This storm is related. Thing to remember is when storms cycle back they are the same but different as they always say. Here was Gary's blog from this morning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Yeah Euro is definitely back South. Brings the cutoff back into my county. Right now it looks to be on an island but I'm hoping this isn't a trend starter. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Oh well another incher!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 18z NAM looking stronger and wetter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 18z NAM looking stronger and wetter.it is- but somewhat suppresed further S in IA Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 RPM is really light overall. 0.5" here on the Northern edge, while the most anyone gets South of me is 2" in Falls City. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Bah. The 12z NAM gives us the farthest north and wettest run so far, but then follows it up with an 18z run that barely even gets the snow to Cedar Rapids again. This flip-flop crap really gets annoying. With the euro going south on the northern edge, I suppose we should expect the other models to back off, too. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Bah. The 12z NAM gives us the farthest north and wettest run so far, but then follows it up with an 18z run that barely even gets the snow to Cedar Rapids again. This flip-flop crap really gets annoying.I think some of this is do to the the lack of upper air injested in the 18Z and 06Z runs. IF you compare this 18Z run to the 6Z run- they are quite similar. I have always believed there is a difference no matter the being 6 hours closer to the event. This is from 20 years of forecasting experience. If the 00Z does- than I would be concernced, 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 18z NAM is a huge step back here. Yuck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 18Z NAM is amazing for here, dropping 7". I'm not setting my hopes on it, and obviously it screws over most other people on this board which wouldn't be good. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Gary stated a few weeks ago that the cycle length is 45 days, so that would actually match up perfectly. Tom also posted that that estimate seemed quite a bit off. STL didn't get hit by the bliz, but they did score big with the earlier closed low. Don't recall exact dates tho. Same day NYC got smacked unexpectedly with a thump snow. I do remember that. From my post on 11-15-18 Note: saw an 8.7" report from STL region. Beat NYC...in a November snow competition, lol Thus, Jan 11th would be 57 days later. Very close to Tom's estimate of the LRC @ approx. of 55 days 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 3km NAM with ~5" here. I REALLY don't like how close I am to the cutoff though. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 I’ll run with the nam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 This storm is related. Thing to remember is when storms cycle back they are the same but different as they always say. Here was Gary's blog from this morning. Thx for sharing. Guess we'll see. 10 days is not a huge difference, and if you allow a +/-5% tolerance on any given "repeat" the gap narrows further. Nonetheless, I'm thinking the next system around the 18-20th period would/will align better with the bliz in both strength and track. Fun to follow this either way. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 SE Iowa already going with WWA 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Lol the NAM makes a concave cut around CR/IC. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 18z nam is juiced wow. That is fv3 numbers in central Missouri. Oax still going low and keeping freezing drizzle in the mix. Nam has been pretty good this year. I think they are playing super safe here though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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