james1976 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Some counties in W IA have been dropped from the warning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 well it's looking like this might be a bust for my area........have to love the highs and lows of model watching LMAO!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Sun just came out. Awesome Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Sun just came out. AwesomeGood sign for thunderstorm development later!! Oh, wait... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Models still spitting out 4 or 5" for me but I'm not buying it based on radar trends. The HRRR doesn't even have your precip blossoming until mid afternoon. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Things are looking up here. MKX talked about expanding the WSW in their short 10am update. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 15z HRRR did inch nw with the southern band. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 I would definitely take what the HRRR is showing right now. Assuming ratios are still what DVN originally indicated, would probably be 6” or more. That said, I think my prediction for Dubuque right now would be 4-6”. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 WWA expanded north to the southern TC metro. Rochester gonna rake later this afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 12z FV3 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 I am going with 6”. Along Hwy 20 sounds like a decent shot. Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 I am going with 6”. Along Hwy 20 sounds like a decent shot.Definitely possible. Most models seem to probably indicate 5-7” for us, but I always like to take off a little bit with the assumption that models are probably slightly overdoing it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 WWA expanded north to the southern TC metro. Rochester gonna rake later this afternoon.And just like that...Rochester added the the warning. Gosaints score. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 And the flurries have begun.... Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 this thing has been an interesting one to track. liking the HRRR trends for CR though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VMB443 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 MKX update says I get 4-8 - they bumped up the high end of the range - liking how that’s happening, rather than the other way around. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 And the flurries have begun....Unfortunately I don’t believe it’ll last long. We’ll maybe get some flurries from getting hit with this initial band, but it’ll scoot past us and we’ll have a lull in snow for a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Point and click up to 4-8 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 MKX update says I get 4-8 - they bumped up the high end of the range - liking how that’s happening, rather than the other way around. I'm a little West of you, we were at 5-8 last night with the warning, but they bumped the lower total down an inch. Regardless this looks like it's really shaping up for S WI. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Yeah looks like 2 pm I hear. I am on 3 weeks vacation, I can wait lol Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Yeah looks like 2 pm I hear. I am on 3 weeks vacation, I can wait lolHRRR doesn’t have it starting back up until about 5/6ish. Sounds like a good time to go have a daytime snooze 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Full blown sun here. C IA dry air is the real deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 LOT Update: No significant changes for the area In summary, no significant changes to the message for this eventthis morning. One element we did alter was the mid-late afternoonsnow potential, confining the highest likelihood of commuteimpacts to I-90 and north.Will have more in the afternoon discussion overall, but willbriefly describe some observational trends tied to onset time andevolution into the evening. The well-defined northern stream mid-level wave across southeast South Dakota has been mainly movingdue east, a little further north than guidance indicated lastnight. This will start to trend more east-southeast as a gradualphasing with the southern stream low begins to occur. The activebaroclinic zone draped from the Minnesota/Iowa border region intosouthwest Wisconsin this morning is gradually filling in withsnow, some heavy. As this has filled in it has slowed its northernprogress. Extrapolating its current development would bring itinto the northern CWA this afternoon, and more so the far northernCWA (I-90 and north) as it becomes robust around sunset. High-resolution guidance generally supports this. There may be a periodmid-afternoon where further south of that does still see snow,but the stronger frontogenesis (f-gen) and vertical circulationfor appreciable snow looks to be more focused in the far north.As broader synoptic forcing overspreads the region this evening,snow should spread from west to east across the area. F-gensignatures become somewhat transient, but there remainsindications of that as the systems gradually phase in the broadnorthern precipitation shield over the area. General snowfallforecast amounts still look good. Some parts of the I-88 corridorhave been lowered just slightly because of the aforementionedmid-late afternoon expectations.While could justify backing up the start time of some of thewarning counties along I-88 that begin at 3 pm, the northernparts of these counties, including Cook, could certainly stillget into the f-gen driven more moderate snow. So have left as is. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 LOT Update: No significant changes for the area In summary, no significant changes to the message for this eventthis morning. One element we did alter was the mid-late afternoonsnow potential, confining the highest likelihood of commuteimpacts to I-90 and north. Will have more in the afternoon discussion overall, but willbriefly describe some observational trends tied to onset time andevolution into the evening. The well-defined northern stream mid-level wave across southeast South Dakota has been mainly movingdue east, a little further north than guidance indicated lastnight. This will start to trend more east-southeast as a gradualphasing with the southern stream low begins to occur. The activebaroclinic zone draped from the Minnesota/Iowa border region intosouthwest Wisconsin this morning is gradually filling in withsnow, some heavy. As this has filled in it has slowed its northernprogress. Extrapolating its current development would bring itinto the northern CWA this afternoon, and more so the far northernCWA (I-90 and north) as it becomes robust around sunset. High-resolution guidance generally supports this. There may be a periodmid-afternoon where further south of that does still see snow,but the stronger frontogenesis (f-gen) and vertical circulationfor appreciable snow looks to be more focused in the far north. As broader synoptic forcing overspreads the region this evening,snow should spread from west to east across the area. F-gensignatures become somewhat transient, but there remainsindications of that as the systems gradually phase in the broadnorthern precipitation shield over the area. General snowfallforecast amounts still look good. Some parts of the I-88 corridorhave been lowered just slightly because of the aforementionedmid-late afternoon expectations. While could justify backing up the start time of some of thewarning counties along I-88 that begin at 3 pm, the northernparts of these counties, including Cook, could certainly stillget into the f-gen driven more moderate snow. So have left as is.I still like where we are sitting here in N. IL with both system and LES potential. LES potential has focused more inland then previous runs and seems to stay on our side of the lake. Should be a fun couple days here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Point and click up to 4-8Rochester will never be denied. MN’s snow magnet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 12z UK I don't like the way it shows the southern band kinda hitting a wall around I-80. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Wisco map updated at 11:17am 1 Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 16z HRRR continues to look good. A slight improvement from last time. A majority of the DVN area with .4” QPF. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 16z HRRR continues to look good. A slight improvement from last time. A majority of the DVN area with .4” QPF.What's it look like over here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Is this stuff coming down nice and powdery or is it wet and heavy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Pixie dust so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 What's it look like over here?Do you live in SE Butler county? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Do you live in SE Butler county?SW Butler Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Sun went back under. Clouds have thickened. Maybe that's a good sign. I kinda forgot the Warning doesnt officially kick in until noon for my area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 SW ButlerHas you right around .3” QPF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 16z HRRR Earlier this morning a few straight runs lowered the qpf in the southern band, but the last few have bumped it back up again. 0.40+" is what I'd like to see from this. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 East Dub are you receiving any of this flurrie activity? Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 East Dub are you receiving any of this flurrie activity?I’m actually in Dubuque for work (on cedar cross), and it’s more than flurry activity. I have snow covering my windshield, actually. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 clouds have lowered and thickened...let see some flakes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Ok, it is a nice bonus then. I am up by hwy 52 and the NW Arterial. Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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