Jan 18th-20th Potential Winter Storm. Can this be The One??

[Tom]

Anyone in MKE getting good LES? Radar is showing a nice band parked over the city.

[BMT]

5.5 here in Marion

[VMB443]

Anyone in MKE getting good LES? Radar is showing a nice band parked over the city.

 

I'm west of downtown probably fifteen miles or so, so we are just getting a nice gentle snowfall with some bigger flakes - not sure how much accumulation it will add up this far west of the lake, but definitely a nice snow globe effect to add to our first real snowfall since last April!

[Tom]

I'm west of downtown probably fifteen miles or so, so we are just getting a nice gentle snowfall with some bigger flakes - not sure how much accumulation it will add up this far west of the lake, but definitely a nice snow globe effect to add to our first real snowfall since last April!

 

One of the more admiring characteristics of LES...can't wait to see how this sets up later this afternoon...

[Iowawx]

Measured 5.8 here. Underperformed a little bit, but still good overall.

 

Some really impressive totals in far northeast Iowa. 14 inches is the highest I’ve seen so far.

[gimmesnow]

I spent the night at Alpine Valley until close, was some amazing powder, absolutely beautiful. And now there's hope for more on Tuesday, though it's not going to be the delicious powder if it's going to be that warm. The trails are open in SE Wisconsin for snowmobiling, going to live the life of going between boarding and snowmobiling.

[shakjen]

Measured 5.5" here. About what was predicted. Have drifts in my driveway already 12"-16" high. blowing pretty good out here and the sun is starting peak out.

[Niko]

WOW..overslept as I was hosting a party last night. Anyways catching up tp this snowstorm, so far, snow tally's are an impressive 3.2" and still coming down for a couple more hours. Once the snow ends, I will go and measure. Winds are blowing the snow around, so, blowing snow is happening out there as well. Finally, some snow. WHHOOAAAAA!

[East Dubzz]

Well I was pretty stupid earlier and I just measured one spot not realizing how much wind it gets there. My storm total was actually closer to 6”, which matches up with reports to both my west & east.

[indianajohn]

Yea Those Greek parties can get out of hand quickly LOL!!!

WOW..overslept as I was hosting a party last night. Anyways catching up tp this snowstorm, so far, snow tally's are an impressive 3.2" and still coming down for a couple more hours. Once the snow ends, I will go and measure. Winds are blowing the snow around, so, blowing snow is happening out there as well. Finally, some snow. WHHOOAAAAA!

[dubuque473]

Well I was pretty stupid earlier and I just measured one spot not realizing how much wind it gets there. My storm total was actually closer to 6”, which matches up with reports to both my west & east.

Now I am anxious to get to my gauge in the backyard...

[Niko]

@Jaster....

 

How is the storm going for ya??? Very impressive here. My totals have upped to 4-8" now. Radar looks very impressive.

[Niko]

Yea Those Greek parties can get out of hand quickly LOL!!!

You bet!

[jaster220]

WOW..overslept as I was hosting a party last night. Anyways catching up tp this snowstorm, so far, snow tally's are an impressive 3.2" and still coming down for a couple more hours. Once the snow ends, I will go and measure. Winds are blowing the snow around, so, blowing snow is happening out there as well. Finally, some snow. WHHOOAAAAA!

 

Sitting in my fam rm and looking out the window to that snow globe effect not seen since early last Feb here in Marshall. Some of the better rates hitting here the past hour or so. Quick measure was between 3.5 and 4" so I'm thinking I will end up with about 5-ish.

[Niko]

Sitting in my fam rm and looking out the window to that snow globe effect not seen since early last Feb here in Marshall. Some of the better rates hitting here the past hour or so. Quick measure was between 3.5 and 4" so I'm thinking I will end up with about 5-ish.

Same here, if not more. Cant wait to go and measure later this evening when the snow finally ends. I am thinking 5-8 is a good bet.

[jaster220]

@Jaster....

 

How is the storm going for ya??? Very impressive here. My totals have upped to 4-8" now. Radar looks very impressive.

 

That must be TWC again. NWS still with 3-6 M59 and south. Nonetheless, TWC may be picking up on this and the NWS a bit slow to up totals??

 

[Niko]

That must be TWC again. NWS still with 3-6 M59 and south. Nonetheless, TWC may be picking up on this and the NWS a bit slow to up totals??

 

Screenshot_2019-01-19 Weather Story.png

There is some good banding approaching. Snow all of this afternoon b4 ending early evening.

 

Yup...I would not be surprise if headlines upgrade to a WSW,

[james1976]

Looks like 2-3 from looking out the window. A lot of wind!

[bud2380]

2 separate spotter reports from North Liberty of 4.5” and that looks right to me. A little underperforming but oh well.

[jaster220]

uggh. Looks like these nicer returns stayed JUST S/SW of me. Sure was hoping to get in on that

 

[jaster220]

This needs to happen

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0028
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 AM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

Areas affected...Northeast Indiana...northwest Ohio and southwest
Michigan

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 191609Z - 191915Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to occasionally heavy snow will continue into the
afternoon. Snowfall rates of 1 to 1.5 inches per hour are expected.

DISCUSSION...A large precipitation shield has developed north of a
deepening surface cyclone moving into the southern Ohio Valley.
North of the rain/snow line, currently located just south of Marion,
Indiana to near Delaware, Ohio, moderate snowfall has developed. A
band of enhanced snowfall rates has developed from Rochester,
Indiana to near Ann Arbor, MI. The location of this band matches 12Z
NAM cross sections which had an area of negative saturated
equivalent potential vorticity (EPV) above the low-level
frontogenesis forcing. This area of conditional symmetric
instability(CSI) is expected to wane by 18Z and then redevelop
between 18Z and 21Z across northwest Ohio. Snowfall rates beneath
these heavier bands will likely exceed 1 inch per hour with snowfall
rates above 1.5 inches per hour possible. Outside of these stronger
bands, snowfall rates will be around 0.5 to 1 inch per hour.

..Bentley.. 01/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...

LAT...LON 42628279 42338435 42088543 41698590 41448622 41138643
40708654 40668578 40538467 40568315 40668261 41068231
41898190 42518178 42628279

[jaster220]

Niko buddy, they didn't upgrade, perhaps due to long event time-frame, or just strong-arming by GRR, who knows??

 

but..

 

Also, from DTX:

000FXUS63 KDTX 191518AFDDTXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI1018 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019.UPDATE...Bumped snow accumulations up this morning but no changes to thegoing headlines. The slow forward progress of the deep troughpivoting through northwestern Ontario today is allowing the activeportion of the frontal zone to lift further north into the CWA, ashas been the trend in the guidance since yesterday evening`s rapidrefresh runs. Furthermore, a slightly deeper and more compactsouthern stream wave currently invof the Arklatex will now beallowed to track slightly more north and west than previouslyforecast. No substantial change to the magnitude of forcing ormoisture quality, but duration of snow appearing more likely tocarry on well into this evening. Snow ratios around 11:1 still lookgood for reasons outlined in previous discussions, though boundarylayer warming to the tune of 2m temps in the upper 20s in Monroe andWayne Counties today will partially offset increasing QPF due toincreased riming. In the short term, primary consideration for theafternoon package will be the potential for an extension in time ofa portion of all the advisory. Confidence in lake effect snowimpacting the Thumb on Sunday is increasing and will be a secondfocus of attention this aftn.

[Niko]

 

Niko buddy, they didn't upgrade, perhaps due to long event time-frame, or just strong-arming by GRR, who knows??

 

but..

 

Also, from DTX:

000FXUS63 KDTX 191518AFDDTXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI1018 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019.UPDATE...Bumped snow accumulations up this morning but no changes to thegoing headlines. The slow forward progress of the deep troughpivoting through northwestern Ontario today is allowing the activeportion of the frontal zone to lift further north into the CWA, ashas been the trend in the guidance since yesterday evening`s rapidrefresh runs. Furthermore, a slightly deeper and more compactsouthern stream wave currently invof the Arklatex will now beallowed to track slightly more north and west than previouslyforecast. No substantial change to the magnitude of forcing ormoisture quality, but duration of snow appearing more likely tocarry on well into this evening. Snow ratios around 11:1 still lookgood for reasons outlined in previous discussions, though boundarylayer warming to the tune of 2m temps in the upper 20s in Monroe andWayne Counties today will partially offset increasing QPF due toincreased riming. In the short term, primary consideration for theafternoon package will be the potential for an extension in time ofa portion of all the advisory. Confidence in lake effect snowimpacting the Thumb on Sunday is increasing and will be a secondfocus of attention this aftn.

Thanks for the message buddy.....

 

Tbh, yesterday when I was looking at the radar, it looked like it was coming more north and there ya go. Currently, getting moderate to heavy snow (blowing snow also) and it is expected to be snowing all day and into parts of early evening b4 finally tapering off. Overachieving for sure.

[Tony]

Snow should start up again this afternoon for NE. IL and depending on intensity we should see some addl accumulations and the later tonight is when it will get interesting under that single band that develops

[Tony]

Tom, I think you mentioned that the LES could have ratios of 30:1 and I can see this happening with the setup today into tomorrow

[Tom]

Tom, I think you mentioned that the LES could have ratios of 30:1 and I can see this happening with the setup today into tomorrow

They usually are 20-30:1 ratio, it also depends on how strong the winds are so the flakes don't shear apart.  The fluff factor should be ice to see on top of the freshly fallen system snow.

[Jaycee]

Friend of mine got a crazy picture of the heavy snow band and waves crashing in near solider field!

 

[Niko]

 

Beautiful shot of SEMI snowstorm.

[jaster220]

Chuck'd a bone - some 20+ dbz banding attm

[Niko]

Chuck'd a bone - some 20+ dbz banding attm

I can see your location in Marshall getting at least 6", maybe more.

[jaster220]

Thanks for the message buddy.....

 

Tbh, yesterday when I was looking at the radar, it looked like it was coming more north and there ya go. Currently, getting moderate to heavy snow (blowing snow also) and it is expected to be snowing all day and into parts of early evening b4 finally tapering off. Overachieving for sure.

 

Not so much the SLP come north (it obviously didn't) but it's a bit better organized and forcing is better in the NW quadrant. Gives us a decent storm vs the weak sauce many SR models were flashing just 36 hrs ago.

 

[jaster220]

@ OKwx

 

You got headlines bud??

[Niko]

Not so much the SLP come north (it obviously didn't) but it's a bit better organized and forcing is better in the NW quadrant. Gives us a decent storm vs the weak sauce many SR models were flashing just 36 hrs ago.

 

Yes, much better, organized storm than what was predicted. I'll take that and run!

[brianc400]

It continued snowing for half the morning, and I ended up with 6.25. Not bad!

 

It will be interesting what LES amounts to here. East-west roads in the open areas are starting to drift quite a bit already.

[Hawkeye]

My snow boards only have 3-3.5" on them.  Based on the rates the last few hours last night I was guessing around 4 inches.  This morning I see there are plenty of 5-6" reports from the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area, plus several 4.5" reports, so I guess I'll just record 4.5" for my yard.  I hate windy storms.

 

The wind destroyed the ratios.  My gauge catch, melted down, is actually 0.53".  That's way higher than I expected.  I then took a core sample from one of my boards with 3.1" on it.  It melted down to 0.48", a ridiculous 6.5 to 1 ratio.  The wind blows the snow around and compacts it.  If there was no wind, I probably would have measured 6+ inches.

[Jaycee]

To be completely honest, and maybe it’s cuz I live on concrete and there’s not a lot of grassy areas around here, it looks like we have maybe 3” I can’t for the life of me find how that’d be true but I guess we’ll see. We may have gotten shafted in this part of town!

[jaster220]

Yes, much better, organized storm than what was predicted. I'll take that and run!

 

Not sure when this was published, but here ya go!

 

[Niko]

Not sure when this was published, but here ya go!

 

No wonder my snowfall totals went up. Thank for that post buddy.

[tbone8]

Got lucky and only got about 2-3" Looks like the LES maker will get me Sunday.

 

[westMJim]

The snow has ended and the sun is out. Total snow fall here at my house from this event is 3.0"