Iowawx Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 I'm not feeling good about this weak cutter. Like hlcater, I'd hate to see rain ruin the insulating snow ahead of the arctic cold.How could you not feel good about it? The GFS and Euro have CR getting all snow. 12Z GFS had CR right in the heaviest of the snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 Actually, there is over .50” of rain across N IL...Right now yes, but hoping for either a weaker solution and/or more southerly track. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 Nebraskans should like the 18z Icon run. Nice storm shaping up if this verifies. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 Nebraskans should like the 18z Icon run. Nice storm shaping up if this verifies.Warm slotted here based on the icon, nam completely disagreeing. Should be fun . Edit: decent track for us based on the nam but doesn't place the bands well. Sigh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 Slight 25 mile tick south on the GFS. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VMB443 Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 MKX suggesting 3-5 for us, kind of surprised they are already putting numbers to it, their afternoon forecast discussion seems fairly confident at this point that we are going to have a decent snow event, more than I would say is usual for them still three days out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 If this dumps a plowable amount on some of the same areas that just got hit here in Central to Southern IA-- A LOT of people are going to cry uncle and say / think this has been a long winter. With little to no memory how it was up till Jan 12-13th. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 18z GFS with a bit more juice area wide. I’m thinking 0.5” total snow here. Being stuck between 2 areas of forcing is rarely a good spot to be. Prove me wrong, Ma Nature. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 I'd be happy with 2-4" here after yesterday's failure. Just really want something on top of this old crust and mud now. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 DMX blending the 12Z GFS and NAM-- no clue how that just = FZDZ and PL in C.IA - but hey - they could be right. Zero mention of the Euro. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 12Z Euro Kuchera - 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 Thanks for not forgetting about me. I've been missed in literally every direction this entire winter. I haven't had a snowpack above 2 inches at any 1 time and it's been extremely disheartening. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 UKMET at HR 72-- 850 and 2M from what I can tell would favor mostly SN. if anyone has precip maps past 72 that would be great-- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 UKMET at HR 72-- 850 and 2M from what I can tell would favor mostly SN. if anyone has precip maps past 72 that would be great--P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 I'd be happy with 2-4" here after yesterday's failure. Just really want something on top of this old crust and mud now.I just want to cover the thinned out areas/areas of bare ground that have developed for some reason. What we have now would be better than bare grass for the upcoming cold spell, but still not ideal. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 12km wants to spare those of us east the full-monte liquid rinse-off of our fresh snow blanket. Hope it's a trend 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Keeps the liquid stuff south of the state line. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 00z nam close up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 GEFS seem set on a Chicago to Georgian Bay track for the SLP, so it'll come down to low-level cold to save SMI from the total warm rainer scene. Meanwhile, GGEM gives me some front-end snow followed by plain rain fwiw Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 00z nam close up Hard to tell what's noise from the current system here. Be tomorrow's maps til it's more clear I guess Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 screw zone. Pound town north and south. But I’d take it I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Hard to tell what's noise from the current system here. Be tomorrow's maps til it's more clear I guesshere is a fix, add both together 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 0z Icon with another great run from Southwest to Central to Northeast Nebraska. Time frame is late Monday through most of Tuesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Nam keeping the good band north. 4 inches ain't bad though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 18z euro 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 0z Icon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 ^ the ICON seems to be a little tipsy tonight. That map isn’t even close to any other models. At least not up this way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 here is a fix, add both together Thx. I guess I was thinking more subtraction, lol but I see how those 24 hr increments could work. Question is how much of the h72 map south of the snow line is rain or at least other than snow? I don't know if there's a way to "parse" precip types for a given model run? Obviously the NAM is the cold and snowier solution outlier for SMI at this point. Just hafta hope it's leading the way. I was fully expecting to lose a good bit of my fresh snow vs adding to it. Would be a huge win if NAM's leading on this. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Icon is cutting the storm too hard. Per storm disclaimer that the icon sucks. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 GFS stronger and north through hr 54. Reverting back to its stronger runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Good run for IA Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Areas north of interstate 80 in Iowa look good for this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Looks like rain in CR that run. Positively awful. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Icon is cutting the storm too hard. Per storm disclaimer that the icon sucks. LOL, then has a coastal low at h177 - THE GULF COAST Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Looks like rain in CR that run. Positively awful.Looks like the GFS has freezing rain to start then snow on the backside. Really only a 15 mile shift south puts CR in the heaviest band of snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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