February 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

I'm still concerned about the rains/snow line during this pattern.  After each system the cold air doesn't get pulled south very far, so when the next storm ejects into the plains it pulls the warm air aloft right back up to the I-80 corridor.

[Tom]

When you have a minute, would you mind explaining why you think things will shift further south after next week?  I know it has to do with the teleconnections, but could you use terminology a true amateur would understand?  I'd really appreciate it!  

TBH, it all comes down to various long range tools, of which, there are quite a few...or more simply, pattern recognition.  When I try to predict the wx pattern, I don't necessarily use one thing over the other but a lot of it has to do with the LRC which I'm sure your aware of coming from the KC region.  As for your area, the pattern becomes more favorable starting late next week (maybe even Valentine's Day?).  The amount of cold air that will begin to invade the central CONUS will eventually suppress the storm track leaving your area in the vicinity of where winter storms may track.  I think it will get better for your area...I really do.

[Niko]

The extended forecast  is as stormy as it can get. Anyone that gets all snow from all storms until end of February, will have snow lasting right into April.

[Andie]

Any snow that Texas saw remained south. Waco saw sleet. The whole experience was an embarrassment though I'm sure they enjoyed the snowflakes in Hill Country.

 

We had drizzle today and rain on deck tomorrow.

Low of 35* tonight and 45* tomorrow.

 

Sounds like a good day to stay in and find a good movie or game to watch.

This winter has been a bust for Texas.

[Beltrami Island]

Here is photo summary of the recent blizzard by the grand forks NWS. If you never experienced a red river valley blizzard, it's not quite like anything else. The snowing hitting your face could have fallen to the ground months earlier and many miles away...

 

https://business.facebook.com/pg/NWSGrandForks/photos/?business_id=10153475054764041&tab=album&album_id=2044269195650171&__tn__=-UC-R

[Niko]

Currently clear and frigid w temps in the teens.

[Stacsh]

State of Emergency declared for Grand Rapids. Never seen that before. Crazy weather.

[Niko]

Seattle, WA is enjoying Winter's Full Fury..........

 

WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible as two storm systems move across the area. The first system will move across the area Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, bringing the potential for 1 to 3 inches of new snow. Another system will move in quickly behind this system Monday and continue through Tuesday, bringing the potential for more significant snowfall. New snow accumulations Monday through Tuesday of 5 to 8 inches possible.

 

 

[Grizzcoat]

GFS breaking out snow in Ne and IA ,MN ,SD Valentines Day AM. Colder run- my goodness- what a pattern!!!

[hlcater]

GFS breaking out snow in Ne and IA ,MN ,SD Valentines Day AM. Colder run,

 

This piece of energy has the makings of a massive storm for someone. Some models have lee cyclogenesis down into the 980s, starting the system off on a strong foot. 

[Grizzcoat]

GFS creams S.IA

[Money]

This piece of energy has the makings of a massive storm for someone. Some models have lee cyclogenesis down into the 980s, starting the system off on a strong foot.

GEM agrees with this as well

[jcwxguy]

Valentine's day (14th and 15th) storm showing up still

[Money]

GEM at 144 has a 984 L in NW IL ish

 

Starts out at 982 in southern KS at 120

 

https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif

[hlcater]

Yea... Not done snowing over E IA and NW IL. Very strong surface low in the 980s trecks through NW IL.

 

[gosaints]

I would recommend sleep... Gonna be a long week in weather weenie world

[Money]

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2019021000&fh=144&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

 

This would be pretty insane

[Hawkeye]

That would be great.  However, I don't think the euro has anything like that.  I don't think the 12z euro had much if any cold sector precip.

[Money]

Just wait until you see the gem snowmap...

 

It’s got places 30+ inches at 10:1 ratio

 

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019021000&fh=144

[Wintersno]

That looks like a hurricane!

[Money]

How about this for a snow map?

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2019021000&fh=156&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

[jcwxguy]

Think the fv3 is not showing that system

[jcwxguy]

Actually is, just no qpf with it until Wisconsin

[Minny_Weather]

GFS makes the dry slot a ***** on the Valentine's day system, but still hooks us up with a pretty sweet backside. Also has a monster of a storm in OK and KS for the 19th. That would render Viagra useless for any Winter weather buffs who live down there.

[Grizzcoat]

ukie S for Valentines day

[CentralNebWeather]

The 0z Canadian might be the most snow I have ever seen on a forecasted map for a model run that covers so much of the nation . Nice eye candy for sure.

[Money]

The 0z Canadian might be the most snow I have ever seen on a forecasted map for a model run that covers so much of the nation . Nice eye candy for sure.

It shows another system at the end that hits the same areas

 

Pretty crazy. 50+ in a lot of areas

[jcwxguy]

The 0z Canadian might be the most snow I have ever seen on a forecasted map for a model run that covers so much of the nation . Nice eye candy for sure.

day after tomorrow

[Minny_Weather]

day after tomorrow

You know it's a weenie run when you're disgruntled by only getting 20".

[Stormhunter87]

So the Canadian run appears the model sniffed some cocaine and just started screaming snow for everyone. Wow

[Money]

Euro has a 984 L in central IN for Thu/Fri system

[jcwxguy]

Euro slightly north vs 12z for Friday

[jaster220]

You know it's a weenie run when you're disgruntled by only getting 20".

 

or 6

[gabel23]

Euro has next weekends low also; goes from 982 in northwest kansas to 984 just north of Indy a day later. This should be a sweet run for I-80 east of Denver. 

[jcwxguy]

Euro has next weekends low also; goes from 982 in northwest kansas to 984 just north of Indy a day later. This should be a sweet run for I-80 east of Denver.

I have the map a few posts above

[gabel23]

So over due.....and this pattern is not even to the active period yet. The turkey day blizzard in Kansas isn't due until the end of Feb if you go by the LRC! 

[jcwxguy]

Another system showing the Monday after

[gabel23]

I have the map a few posts above

That's the disadvantage of tropical tidbits; I thought that run would be further north than that. 

[Tom]

Over the next 10 days, the 00z Euro is heading towards the idea that the storm track begins to shift farther S in time.  About 2-3 days ago, it began to see the Valentine's Day storm I had in mind when no model was showing a storm...now every model has it.  At this range, given the model discrepancies where the eventual track of the Valentine's Day storm ends up, I'm just glad to see all the models showing the potential for a wound up storm somewhere across the Heartland.  Speaking of the Heartland, the 00z Euro is suggesting the "Heartland Glacier" to expand farther S and W???

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

Currently at 12F w mostly cloudy skies.