February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Phil]

Remember two weeks ago when we were sticking forks in winter?

 

Now we’re looking at an EPIC February with potentially 2+ lowland snow events and persistent cold up to the last week of the month.

Model-ology has its limits. I think when Jim and Justin both threw in the towel, the rest of the forum panicked and jumped off the cliff with them.

[Deweydog]

This.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1 arctic trough 2 notches east from 00z last night

 

[GHweatherChris]

Model-ology has its limits. I think when Jim and Justin both threw in the towel, the rest of the forum panicked and jumped off the cliff with them.

#editedpost

[luvssnow_spokane]

Model-ology has its limits. I think when Jim and Justin both threw in the towel, the rest of the forum panicked and jumped off the cliff with them.

We are in this together. No man or woman left behind. Families that jump together stay together.

[GHweatherChris]

2019 redux is on the table, woot!!

[Phil]

So much for the -PDO prerequisite, I guess.

[wxmet]

UKMET showing about 3mm liquid ( a little over an inch) of potential frozen precip from 00z to 12z Monday for Seattle.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/PN_D5_TS_TT_P1_UV_UU_VV_METE_1000_Seattle.png

[snow_wizard]

The FV3 shows a major snow event for the Puget Sound region later next week.

[Requiem]

The FV3 shows a major snow event for the Puget Sound region later next week.

 

Nice event for NW OR as well. These models are teasing us real badly :/

[Phil]

We are in this together. No man or woman left behind. Families that jump together stay together.

I’m pulling for you man. Basically every corner of the planet has scored something historic over the last three years, so you guys are sorely overdue.

 

Hopefully it puts 1950 to shame and shuts up the climateers in the process.

[Omegaraptor]

Most of the west coast is affected, including inland CA. Even Quartzsite will be high 50s low 60s all of next week!

 

I guess that historic Midwest cold snap has an equal and opposite reaction.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 WOW quite a bit further east than previous run

 

[snow_wizard]

Time to look at some of the all time great Februaries and see what has historically been possible for that month here.  Off hand I can't think of any in the 20th century that have the combination of multple Arctic intrusions and significant snowfall both.

[snow_wizard]

Day 2 WOW quite a bit further east than previous run

 

 

Incredible!  I knew there was chance of this but I wasn't counting on it.

[Phil]

why the hell are we discussing 300hr+ gfs returns

Because this is a monthly weather thread on a weather forum in the middle of a snow starved winter?

[Requiem]

Day 2 WOW quite a bit further east than previous run

 

 

CRAP, I accidentally pressed downvote, I meant to upvote this. I apologize

[wxmet]

ECMWF 00z shifted eastward. Now showing precip into reaching into Seattle early Monday morning. 

[Phil]

CRAP, I accidentally pressed downvote, I meant to upvote this. I apologize

You didn’t have to out yourself. Could’ve easily blamed it on Tim and everyone would have believed it.

[Requiem]

You didn’t have to out yourself. Could’ve easily blamed it on Tim and everyone would have believed it.

 

I felt bad, want to be forthcoming especially since it was good news for everyone haha

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF 00z shifted eastward. Now showing precip into reaching into Seattle early Monday morning. 

 

 

Definite shift to the east...

 

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Wow. FV3 also showing a nice event for next Thursday/Friday.

 

[Requiem]

Definite shift to the east...

 

 

Nice. I wonder what Monday night bodes for the region.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3
 

 

[TT-SEA]

Does not quite spread into King County though before it starts slipping south.   Lets see where the deformation band ends up.

 

[Requiem]

Day 3

 

 

 

How does this one compare to the previous run? Bad or good for lowland snow chances?

[TT-SEA]

Although that is a big improvement for Portland on Monday morning.

[TT-SEA]

Snow all day on Monday in Portland!  

 

[Blizzard777]

CRAP, I accidentally pressed downvote, I meant to upvote this. I apologize

They are kind of close together and some of us folks got big fingertips. We have a 50% shot at getting the right arrow

[BLI snowman]

Time to look at some of the all time great Februaries and see what has historically been possible for that month here.  Off hand I can't think of any in the 20th century that have the combination of multple Arctic intrusions and significant snowfall both.

 

Yeah, 1936 had some decent snow in spots but it was largely dry. Portland pulled off a mini-blizzard with that on February 17 with a high of 24 and 30-40mph winds.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through Monday evening... HUGE improvements to the south.    King County is still in the screw zone though.

 

[HighlandExperience]

Hope the WRF is right. Not liking how the EURO shafts King County Monday.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

[TT-SEA]

High temps on Monday afternoon...

 

[Esquimalt]

ww_snow48.180.0000.gif

It almost looks like it's too warm to support accumulating snow in much of victoria. Didn't imagine that would be an issue

[TT-SEA]

SW WA and Portland folks should be seriously excited about the 00Z ECMWF.  

[BLI snowman]

Snow all day on Monday in Portland!  

 

 

 

Wow, looks like 4-6" totals down here if my math is right?

 

Edit: NVM, I see you answered that with your next post. The maps are pumping out like baby rabbits tonight.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

 

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through Tuesday morning... 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Total snow through Monday evening... HUGE improvements to the south.    King County is still in the screw zone though.

 

 

About 5" up here...