February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Winterdog]

Snow is about to stop here. I have about 1.5”. It looks like that may be it until the next round. I’m happy to have snowcover heading into the cool/cold period ahead.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Bellingham down to 25. This f.cker has some teeth.

[The Swamp]

The ground here in the swamp is going to be rain soaked preventing good accumulation thus limiting my ability to build snow monsters.

[Deweydog]

Down to 25 at Bellingham. Brrr.

[snow_wizard]

Good point with regards to the NAM perhaps overdoing the dry offshore flow.

 

I'm not sure of the NAM's track record with that though and if it often overestimates that aspect? I know it usually does well with precip amounts though, at least for the past events that I've watched it closely.

 

I think the big takeaway from the 18z NAM is it pushes moisture much further north.  As for the offshore gradient issue the Euro in particular shows that being a non factor.  Gradients are much more northerly models other than the NAM.  Hopefully people that know how to access the 18z Euro will keep us posted.

[ttt]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif 

 

 

 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

 

 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

[snow_wizard]

Bellingham down to 25. This f.cker has some teeth.

 

This outflow is going to be brutally cold.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Been sitting at my midnight high of 39 for a couple hours now. 

 

Current 925mb: +1.5C

Current 850mb: - 4.5C

 

About 6-8 hours that will start to change dramatically.

[MikeInEverett]

Looks like a new CZ setting up over south Snohomish county.

[Requiem]

Are models (ensembles) still looking consistently cold and (at very least) interesting?

[snow_wizard]

OLM has dropped to 34.  Cold air hooking around the south end of the Olympics now.

[snow_wizard]

Are models (ensembles) still looking consistently cold and (at very least) interesting?

 

Yup.

[snow_wizard]

5 in Lytton.  Wowzers!

[Requiem]

Yup.

 

I'm excited! Does this have as much potential as a month like January 2017, or maybe February 2018?

[Winterdog]

 

I like the 8-14 day map showing the purple swath all by itself through the Puget Sound.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[dairyd]

the 700mb trough is quite pronounced.  quite magnificent in this view imo.

[seattleweatherguy]

Looks like a new CZ setting up over south Snohomish county.

So close to me but so far away

[GHweatherChris]

Here we go!!

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Got some sun now so the temp has jumped to 42. Darn!

 

Still solidly below normal though so a win nonetheless.

[Esquimalt]

Here is the NAEFS from this morning. Look at this cold signal into the second half of February.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Go Patriots.

I can't stand any LA teams so I'm rooting for the Pats as well.

[TT-SEA]

Got fresh gas for the snowblower and then had to roll it up the hill across the lawn from the shed.    Fired it up and its running good.   It will stay in the garage now for the month.  

[MossMan]

Fun day! Beautiful day! Been snowing non stop but still only about 2” or so on the ground. Temp has been at 33.1 for the last few hours.

[Perturbed Member]

Are there any other models showing decent (1-2 inches) of accumulation for PDX?

 

18z 3km NAM looks good for us

 

 

12km NAM

 

[MikeInEverett]

Graupel starting to turn to all snow.

[bainbridgekid]

The Northern part of the CZ around Everett is fizzling but another band is suddenly blowing up around Mountlake Terrace/Edmonds/Lynnwood.

[seattleweatherguy]

Some type of mix of snow and rain falling

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Incredibly insensitive of you. Avalanches KILL people.

You apparently never heard of the NHL team the Colorado Avalanche! Speaking of Colorado, where is Front Ranger!?

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

He DID say he wanted to see people buried in snow...

Any plans to come back up here this month?

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the first frame of the 18Z ICON shows way more precip than what is really happening around here right now.   

 

I am not doubting the snow... the ECMWF is solid.   Just pointing out that I think the ICON has a wet bias.   I have been noticing it for a few weeks now.

 

[kokaneekidz]

Reverse psychology young grasshopper . We all capitulated to the point where mother nature said hey let's give em more than they can handle this time . To make up for all the busts of yesteryear. Bring it baby. In other news it is a light snow flurrie here in Mukilteo with northwesterly breeze and sticking on grass and roofs not sticking on asphalt yet. Waiting for that so I can go do 360s tonight in an abandoned parking lot....

I thought this event was going to be a total bust though?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Just saw Rod Hill's forecast for Monday to Saturday on his personal weather website.

 

MONDAY:  Snow showers likely with daytime temperatures near to above 32 degrees.  Lowest elevations, depending on ground temps, could see a dusting to 2" of snow.  Elevations at 500' and higher could see up to 4" of snow accumulation in scattered locations. Winds will be northeast to east 5-20 mph. Measurable snowfall will taper off into flurries by 10:00 pm.

 

TUESDAY:  Cold morning in the 20s, look for a mix of cloudiness with possible flurries and light winds. 

 

WEDNESDAY:  Coldest early temperatures near 20 degrees.  A dry mostly sunny day with light winds. 

 

THURSDAY:  Cloudy skies, developing morning rain.  We may get caught with early freezing spots and a wintry mix before all changes to rain.  Rain totals could exceed .25 inches. 

 

FRIDAY:  Morning rain, then a developing afternoon snow mix as surface winds back from southwest to east. .  Snow accumulation will be possible Friday night. 

 

SATURDAY:  Snow likely - an early look shows possible accumulations at all elevations.  Moisture amounts at this time are uncertain, but could reach 4" or more!  Please keep an eye on the forecast. 

[Prairiedog]

A.  cold and not enough moisture, B.  not enough moisture too warm, or C.  moisture and not cold enough.  Pick one.  I'm picking B  That's for tonight into tomorrow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hour 120 of the ICON shows an arctic front dropping into N. Washington.

 

[Perturbed Member]

The NAM thinks there will be a widespread 1-3 inches on the ground in PDX by 7 AM tomorrow with the snow starting less than 12 hours from now.

 

[TT-SEA]

Cliff Mass is going with his WRF and said the ECMWF was an extreme outlier. 

 

He is going to be eating crow tomorrow.   

 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/02/cold-and-snow-enter-western-washington.html

 

The big problem is lack of precipitation...this is NOT a wet system for us, partially because the upper trough and low center is too far offshore.    Temperatures will cool below freezing tonight in Puget Sound and even cooler Monday night/Tuesday morning.   Snow amounts will vary greatly, but generally will be light.  Seattle will get perhaps .5 to 1 inch of snowfall, but accumulation will be hampered by our generally warm roadway surfaces.    But don't be shocked if central Puget Sound gets very little or a bit more....there is substantial uncertainty in this kind of forecast.

[TT-SEA]

12z EPS at day 15... this is an almost impossibly strong signal for 15 days out.     It is screaming at us that its going to stay cold for a looooooooong time.  

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cliff Mass is going with his WRF and said the ECMWF was an extreme outlier. 

 

He is going to be eating crow tomorrow.   

 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/02/cold-and-snow-enter-western-washington.html

 

The big problem is lack of precipitation...this is NOT a wet system for us, partially because the upper trough and low center is too far offshore.    Temperatures will cool below freezing tonight in Puget Sound and even cooler Monday night/Tuesday morning.   Snow amounts will vary greatly, but generally will be light.  Seattle will get perhaps .5 to 1 inch of snowfall, but accumulation will be hampered by our generally warm roadway surfaces.    But don't be shocked if central Puget Sound gets very little or a bit more....there is substantial uncertainty in this kind of forecast.

 

We'll see. I don't see the widespread 3-5" accumulations up there it seems you and others are expecting. The favored areas like Mossman, you, etc... Could do very well though.

[seattleweatherguy]

The nws must be following cliff mass no advisory yet