February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Requiem]

The temp is definitely dropping, and that band appears to be inching west. Just a little.

[Tyler Mode]

Sun less than a degree above the horizon.  This is good for cold.

[snow_wizard]

What a day!  Nice snow cover, cold wind, icicles, icy roads, and now the setting sun reflecting off of the snow covered trees.  This is what winter is all about.  How people can say our normal winter climate is superior to this is beyond me!

[Front Ranger]

This month could be what Jim (and the rest of us) have been waiting our entire lives for...

 

Until the Euro shows a quick transition to 47 degree rain on Friday and it’s BSF then on out...

 

Nah! This month is going to be one for the ages!!

 

The Euro weeklies would indicate the February version of Jan 1950.

 

Would not end up as cold, but possibly nearly as snowy for some people!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

36 now.  Temp slowly falling but nothing all that great.

[MossMan]

The view as I head up my driveway, horses and snow was my view on the drive home, and icicles! I keep meaning to fix that portion of the gutter.

[snow_wizard]

An interesting side note to what has happened over the last 30 hours or so is the similarity this bears to the snowstorm in late January 1972.  Same basic areas hit, same basic areas screwed, same basic pattern (late Jan 1972 has been an analog for a while now), and the details of the Arctic blast afterward.  The main differences were 1972 had widespread 8 to 16 accumulations instead of 2 to 12 like this time, and that one was a just a tad colder.  I would call this a poor mans version of that event.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Cliff Mass thinks you are full of crap.

Is he still alive?

[Front Ranger]

Cliff Mass thinks you are full of crap.

 

He continued to defend the GFS vs. the Euro in a second blog post today.

 

"Finally, there have been a lot of comments about the European Center having a much better forecast than the U.S. GFS model for this event.  The truth is that the European Center also underplayed the situation.  For example here is the accumulated snow forecast for the event made last night (initialized at 4 PM Sunday).  A bit over 2 inches in Seattle....way too low and similar to the US model runs."

[Requiem]

An interesting side note to what has happened over the last 30 hours or so is the similarity this bears to the snowstorm in late January 1972.  Same basic areas hit, same basic areas screwed, same basic pattern (late Jan 1972 has been an analog for a while now), and the details of the Arctic blast afterward.  The main differences were 1972 had widespread 8 to 16 accumulations instead of 2 to 12 like this time, and that one was a just a tad colder.  I would call this a poor mans version of that event.

 

Did that month give Portland anything?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Good isn't a proper enough term. Monumental? Outrageous? Unbelievable? Historic? Sorry, lots of maps to post. Next 2-3 weeks.

 

I like how the pattern seems to be stable the next 2 to 3 weeks. Hopefully we can get some cold and snow in this period.

[Phil]

I read a good write up a few days ago that basically pointed to that. They were basing it off of the Bering Sea Rule.

I’ve heard of that one but haven’t really looked into it.

 

But yeah, unless something weird happens over Eurasia it’s gonna be one of those classic post-SSW springs that takes forever to get going across North America.

 

Would be funny if some of the latest snowfalls on record that were set just last year were to be beaten this year.

[Requiem]

Also, I don't think this band is going to veer west. Just sitting there and (from what it looks like) slowly fading.

[Phil]

He continued to defend his reputation vs. the Euro in a second blog post

Obvious is obvious.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

He continued to defend the GFS vs. the Euro in a second blog post today.

 

"Finally, there have been a lot of comments about the European Center having a much better forecast than the U.S. GFS model for this event.  The truth is that the European Center also underplayed the situation.  For example here is the accumulated snow forecast for the event made last night (initialized at 4 PM Sunday).  A bit over 2 inches in Seattle....way too low and similar to the US model runs."[/size]

He needs to just drop it. I can't stand that old hippie.

[Front Ranger]

Band appears to be enhancing at just the right time for Clark County.

[Jesse]

Looks like some precip might try to move into the metro area from the SE.

[Requiem]

Looks like some precip might try to move into the metro area from the SE.

 

I really hope so.

[Jesse]

Band appears to be enhancing at just the right time for Clark County.

Mostly unpopulated areas around Livingston and Silver Star Mountain doing great.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Good isn't a proper enough term. Monumental? Outrageous? Unbelievable? Historic? Sorry, lots of maps to post. Next 2-3 weeks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Seasonable weather, as interpreted by the Portland NWS.

[The Swamp]

when do we start tracking the Thursday/Friday system?

[Deweydog]

Mostly unpopulated areas around Livingston and Silver Star Mountain doing great.

I believe SOMEONE said this would be Livingston Special.....

[Winterdog]

Just a delight from our front window.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Seasonable weather, as interpreted by the Portland NWS.

 

They're probly focusing too much on EUG and areas down here that haven't been impacted and likely won't.

[Requiem]

Seasonable weather, as interpreted by the Portland NWS.

 

It's just the EURO, as we saw yesterday we should discount all its advice. I know this cause Cliff told me so.

[Phil]

I hear you, Tim.

 

[Cloud]

He continued to defend the GFS vs. the Euro in a second blog post today.

 

"Finally, there have been a lot of comments about the European Center having a much better forecast than the U.S. GFS model for this event. The truth is that the European Center also underplayed the situation. For example here is the accumulated snow forecast for the event made last night (initialized at 4 PM Sunday). A bit over 2 inches in Seattle....way too low and similar to the US model runs."

He needs to bite the bullet on this one. Yes, the models underplayed this event, but the Euro was consistent thru and thru once it shifted the low back east. The other models were practically in catch up mode leading up to the event.

[Jesse]

I believe SOMEONE said this would be Livingston Special.....

I think (hope) it sinks a little south and west later.

 

Still can’t complain too much. Being on the edge of it has been nice. Some huge snowflakes at times, and enough to turn the roof and most of the grass white.

[epiceast]

Strong band near Pdx, will it get rotated over?

 

Odds are in favor of Pdx, the rest of the deformation's bands motion is westward, unless this is the last gasp of air for that band. We should see it quickly die in that case if the western edge keeping is keeping it intact to provide lift/convergence that is missing from the low moving away.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Remember the old days when the NWS would issue a sws talking about a long period of cold and snow for a couple weeks? That was back then with crap models and they still were right most of the time. With this pattern shown you would think they would say something. They must really have people breathing down there necks telling them to not say a word.

[snow_wizard]

OMG! The ECMWF ensemble is even better than the 0z...particularly for keeping the cold going forever.  Another major cold wave shown in the 10 to 15 day period.

[Requiem]

OMG! The ECMWF ensemble is even better than the 0z...particularly for keeping the cold going forever.  Another major cold wave shown in the 10 to 15 day period.

 

Don't know what to say. Someone's gonna score big within the next few weeks. Who? Not sure.

[snow_wizard]

Did that month give Portland anything?

 

Not much.  That was one of the most lopsided winters in favor of Seattle on record.  That doesn't mean much going forward though.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Anybody have a snowfall map from the beginning of the event til now?

[Esquimalt]

Not much.  That was one of the most lopsided winters in favor of Seattle on record.  That doesn't mean much going forward though.

Didn't give us much up here either.  A few dustings of an inch or two but other than that mostly dry and chilly.  I'm hoping it won't be like that for this one. 

[snow_wizard]

Seriously...if the ECMWF ensemble is right we're going to have to change our analogs to the big boys like 1884, 1887, and 1936.  These are the main ones that had very sustained cold.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Not much.  That was one of the most lopsided winters in favor of Seattle on record.  That doesn't mean much going forward though.

What do you think the odds are we get a major heavy snow event for the entire area? Talking 6-18 inches like what has been popping up on some of the runs.

[snow_wizard]

Didn't give us much up here either.  A few dustings of an inch or two but other than that mostly dry and chilly.  I'm hoping it won't be like that for this one. 

 

The Arctic airmass was just too brutal and overpowering on this event for you guys.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Seriously...if the ECMWF ensemble is right we're going to have to change our analogs to the big boys like 1884, 1887, and 1936.  These are the main ones that had very sustained cold.

 

lol in order for that to be true I would assume we are off to a poor start here as compared to all 3 of those years

[Blizzard777]

The view as I head up my driveway, horses and snow was my view on the drive home, and icicles! I keep meaning to fix that portion of the gutter.

Looks fixed for the next few weeks