February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Phil]

WTF WTF WTF. INSANE

If this verifies, all the PDO/deteriorating climate/ENSO stuff will be rendered inert..at least for a brief moment.

 

Let’s do this s**t.

[TT-SEA]

If this verifies, all the PDO/deteriorating climate/ENSO stuff will be rendered inert..at least for a brief moment.

 

Let’s do this s**t.

 

 

I was just thinking that too.  

 

No better way to end the lamenting of the good old days then blowing away even our most insane cold and snowy months in history.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If this verifies, all the PDO/deteriorating climate/ENSO stuff will be rendered inert..at least for a brief moment.

Let’s do this s**t.

Looks to me once the set up starts friday it very well could stay locked with the ridge where we need it. What u think?

[Guest Sounder]

Not impressed by model runs today. Was hoping to see more.

[Requiem]

Not impressed by model runs today. Was hoping to see more.

 

Really disappointed today as well by the lack of three foot totals in the lowlands. Oh well.

[Cloud]

Excuse me while I pick my jaw up from the ground. Monster.

[Jesse]

Not impressed by model runs today. Was hoping to see more.

Did you move to Silver Falls recently?

[Farmboy]

Not impressed by model runs today. Was hoping to see more.

?

[Deweydog]

Reminds me of a few of the runs back around Xmas 2016.

[Phil]

Also, note the precipitation anomaly for the next 10 days. FWIW, it matches the regional proxy record for “cold winter” phases perfectly (weak jet, dry across the North, wet across the Southwest). This was the pattern throughout the LIA.

 

[Cloud]

?

Clearly sarcasm.

[Guest Sounder]

Did you move to Silver Falls recently?

Nah, I'm at the very tip of Cape Flattery near Neah Bay.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

From Michael Ventrice:

 

Just a monster -PNA pattern setting up over the next 2 weeks.... Sets up prolonged cold weather over the Pac-Northwest into Western Canada with anomalous warmth for the South-Southeast.

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1092734886555856897

[Requiem]

From Michael Ventrice:

 

Just a monster -PNA pattern setting up over the next 2 weeks.... Sets up prolonged cold weather over the Pac-Northwest into Western Canada with anomalous warmth for the South-Southeast.

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1092734886555856897

 

Yay! I'm excited (even though the GFS isn't that good for Portland)>

[TigerWoodsLibido]

We have waited all winter for this.    Going to be spectacular.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

EPS at hour 240:

 

 

[Guest Sounder]

Currently 32 at PDX, 33 at SLE. Not going to be real warm today...

Yup, still 31 here and all the trees are holding on to their snow. Very little melting in the SW Hills of Portland.

[Jesse]

Reminds me of a few of the runs back around Xmas 2016.

#matt’snotonboard

[BLI snowman]

If this verifies, all the PDO/deteriorating climate/ENSO stuff will be rendered inert..at least for a brief moment.

 

Let’s do this s**t.

 

8-9.

 

It's a magical window where anything is possible and PNW climo goes out the window. This has been well understood by regional climatologists for decades.

[Deweydog]

#matt’snotonboard

Were you not here on 1-10-17?

[BLI snowman]

Maybe February 2019 will turn into for the West what February 2015 was for the East?

 

I'm kinda getting that vibe watching the EPS.

[ewnichols25]

Maybe February 2019 will turn into for the West what February 2015 was for the East?

 

I'm kinda getting that vibe watching the EPS.

Watching Feb 2015 unfold in the East was painful.

[TT-SEA]

Live cam from Minnesota... this is the bridge over the Mississippi River in my wife's hometown.   

 

4 degrees and snowing hard. 

 

 

 

We are going to do quite a Minnesota impression coming up!

[Guest Sounder]

From Michael Ventrice:

 

Just a monster -PNA pattern setting up over the next 2 weeks.... Sets up prolonged cold weather over the Pac-Northwest into Western Canada with anomalous warmth for the South-Southeast.

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1092734886555856897

I got a kick from the lady replying to him with a screenshot of the very stable summertime stratospheric flow in the Southern Hemisphere, claiming that the turbulent Northern Hemisphere is being caused entirely by humans (not, because, it's like, winter and we have actual land mass impacting weather patterns here, or anything). I'm basically a cartoon version of an AGW fear mongering liberal and I laughed out loud at that.

[SeattleWXGuy]

Impressive agreement in basically all models regarding retrograde, position of arctic high. Things can change, but I'll get more and more interested each run that paints these solutions for the Pac NW.

[Guest Sounder]

Live cam from Minnesota... this is the bridge over the Mississippi River in my wife's hometown.   

 

4 degrees and snowing hard. 

 

 

 

We are going to do quite a Minnesota impression coming up!

That's too cold to snow, must be fake.

[Front Ranger]

8-9.

 

It's a magical window where anything is possible and PNW climo goes out the window. This has been well understood by regional climatologists for decades.

Yet you, of all people, roundly ignored it plus the low solar factor. Some people never learn...

[Deweydog]

Flatiron successfully extrapolated this period back around Thanksgiving.

[Front Ranger]

Maybe February 2019 will turn into for the West what February 2015 was for the East?

 

I'm kinda getting that vibe watching the EPS.

If historic cold/snow can still happen in , it can happen in the PNW!

[TT-SEA]

In-fuccking-sane.

 

Every frame of the EPS has looked basically the same for the last 2 weeks going out 15 days.

 

There is no variability.   There is ALWAYS variability.    I honestly cannot remember anything like this since I have been looking at weather models.

[TT-SEA]

This is 15 days out...

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Jim is going to over heat and throw a rod.

[Deweydog]

This is 15 days out...

 

#trendingeast

[Kayla]

This is just getting dumb... This may send me over the edge if we don't get above the single digits for another 15+ days.

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/nxvx2u.png

[Kayla]

That's too cold to snow, must be fake.

 

I can confirm the -3F temp and snowfall here is indeed fake snow.

[Requiem]

So, when exactly should I start getting excited?

[Kayla]

In-fuccking-sane.

 

Every frame of the EPS has looked basically the same for the last 2 weeks going out 15 days.

 

There is no variability.   There is ALWAYS variability.    I honestly cannot remember anything like this since I have been looking at weather models.

 

1936/1969...

[FroYoBro]

Thicc cloud cover hanging around today is really helping to limit the temperature. Only 33 still. Would be perfect if it could clear out when the sun sets. 

[Cloud]

So, when exactly should I start getting excited?

Now. Model porn is the best kind of excitement.

[Front Ranger]

Flatiron successfully extrapolated this period back around Thanksgiving.

 

Veteran's Day, actually, but close enough.

 

In all seriousness, even though this winter hasn't transpired exactly as I envisioned, I never gave up on the big-time blocking coming back. And I'm really happy it's emerged in the right spot for y'all.