February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[FroYoBro]

Salem down to 32 with light snow. Even if we only have as much Precip as Monday there will be more low elevation snow with the lower temps.

 

Yep, this is much less marginal as far as temperatures go. 

 

32 degrees and a dp of 16 here before any moisture makes it. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The latest HRRR is showing a good push of snow come up the Willamette Valley to PDX Metro 10pm to midnight.

 

[Blizzard777]

It was probably already mentioned and I just missed it but the 00z 3km NAM had a nice increase in overall totals from previous runs.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Light snow and 32 at Newport, OR.

[TT-SEA]

WRF shows the east wind dying off completely tomorrow afternoon but does not show much (if any) snow for King County tomorrow night.

[MossMan]

 

It was probably already mentioned and I just missed it but the 00z 3km NAM had a nice increase in overall totals from previous runs.

 

I was too busy looking at my area of blue and the finger of blue over my old place...then I zoomed out. One sad face down south.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Light snow and 32 at Newport, OR.

Not often you see that!

[TacomaWaWx]

Hope it turns out better for me haha I live in between 2 snow holes

[TT-SEA]

Total snow per WRF through Thursday morning...

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I have a feeling this is gonna be a peninsula special. Does this have the look of the febuary 23rd 2018 event?

 

I think you're thinking of the Feb 21st event. This is different, that event was triggered by a low sliding down the trough axis from the north into a cold airmass. I think it pulled some moist coastal air in from the west and there was a bit of enhancement resulting from the outflow. There wasn't anything like the cut-off low hanging off the coast tomorrow. I can't ever remember seeing snowfall from such a feature in the past; they typically phase with the trough axis, but this one is too far separated.

[Esquimalt]

I think you're thinking of the Feb 21st event. This is different, that event was triggered by a low sliding down the trough axis from the north into a cold airmass. I think it pulled some moist coastal air in from the west and there was a bit of enhancement resulting from the outflow. There wasn't anything like the cut-off low hanging off the coast tomorrow. I can't ever remember seeing snowfall from such a feature in the past; they typically phase with the trough axis, but this one is too far separated.

So do you think the cut off low could hurt us or help us?

[FroYoBro]

Tiny little flakes falling here, but it is also super gusty. Hard to tell if they are even reaching the ground. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Radar is still down here. Not only that, NWS still does not have an explanation why it's down. 

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/jb3bl1.jpg

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/sz9xqv.jpg

[El_Nina]

Tiny little flakes falling here, but it is also super gusty. Hard to tell if they are even reaching the ground.

 

Same here. If it's not temps holding it back it's something else!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

So do you think the cut off low could hurt us or help us?

 

All depends on where exactly it ends up. The models will struggle modeling the deformation band until the low that's currently over Oregon starts to wind down. It'd be a far easier call if this were a low running up from the S/SW, we'd end up with a major overrunning snow and fully take advantage of this cold dry airmass. This thing looks hit or miss.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Radar is still down here. Not only that, NWS still does not have an explanation why it's down.

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/jb3bl1.jpg

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/sz9xqv.jpg

Need to hire new engineers.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Same here. If it's not temps holding it back it's something else!

Once some heavier moisture makes it's way further North, the atmosphere should get saturated enough where we start seeing some snow. Right now I'm thinking this won't happen until midnight here at PDX Metro.

[High Desert Mat?]

Whole lotta snow here. Up to 35” now. Insanity.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Whole lotta snow here. Up to 35” now. Insanity.

35 inches new? Since when?

[TT-SEA]

Once some heavier moisture makes it's way further North, the atmosphere should get saturated enough where we start seeing some snow. Right now I'm thinking this won't happen until midnight here at PDX Metro.

 

I doubt the air mass is going to get saturated at all in the Portland area.   

 

The dewpoint needs to go up about 15 degrees.    Does not seem like there is enough moisture coming in to make that happen.

[High Desert Mat?]

35 inches new? Since when?

Since yesterday morning. Started about 9am.

[TT-SEA]

Since early yesterday morning. Started about 9am.

 

Wow!   That is pretty much the same thing that happened here 2 weeks ago.  

[Jesse]

Need to hire new engineers.

I hear the Pendleton guys are great.

[TacomaWaWx]

Nws Seattle put out a bulletin on their Twitter for accumulations of under 1” basically everywhere in Western WA and said south interior with elevation could see 1-2”

They still say rain during afternoon hours however

[VancouverIslandSouth]

So do you think the cut off low could hurt us or help us?

 

I can say one thing, these setups are usually terrible for precipitation here in the late spring/summer. But I'm not sure the same dynamics will apply this time with low level outflow and the Juan de Fuca being warmer than surrounding landmasses/Strait of Georgia.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Since yesterday morning. Started about 9am.

Is the most you've ever had in this amount of time? Crazy.

[Jesse]

Windy and 30 degrees here at home with some very light flurries. I’m honestly surprised to see anything making it to the ground at this stage, especially so close to the outflow.

[Esquimalt]

All depends on where exactly it ends up. The models will struggle modeling the deformation band until the low that's currently over Oregon starts to wind down. It'd be a far easier call if this were a low running up from the S/SW, we'd end up with a major overrunning snow and fully take advantage of this cold dry airmass. This thing looks hit or miss.

The main band has been trending south in the models for the past 24 hrs. I wouldn’t be surprised if it continues to trend south and hit us instead of Vancouver

[Perturbed Member]

Flurries here, starting to wet bulb but of course temp is already down to 30.6F and DP of 14. Gonna use a pretty good amount of the precious moisture just to help saturate the airmass. Hopefully we have a bit more juice than expected. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Windy and 30 degrees here at home with some very light flurries. I’m honestly surprised to see anything making it to the ground at this stage, especially so close to the outflow.

That's a good sign my friend.

[Perturbed Member]

Windy and 30 degrees here at home with some very light flurries. I’m honestly surprised to see anything making it to the ground at this stage, especially so close to the outflow.

 

Think we'll get more than a dusting out of this?

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 12Z ECMWF showed the dewpoint at PDX at 4 p.m. to be 12 degrees and then 16 by 4 a.m. and 19 at 10 a.m. tomorrow.

[GHweatherChris]

I doubt the air mass is going to get saturated at all in the Portland area.

 

The dewpoint needs to go up about 15 degrees. Does not seem like there is enough moisture coming in to make that happen.

There he is, #buzzkilltim

[Jesse]

Think we'll get more than a dusting out of this?

It’s a tough call. I’m guessing I’m probably in one of the worst spots being relatively close to the Gorge. But for you and others west and south of here, like FroYoBro, I could pretty easily picture 1-2” if things work out right.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

You can't just look at surface dewpoints and think that the air is dry at all levels. Jesus.

[Perturbed Member]

It’s a tough call. I’m guessing I’m probably in one of the worst spots being relatively close to the Gorge. But for you and others west and south of here, like FroYoBro, I could pretty easily picture 1-2” if things work out right.

 

 

Doesn't hurt that something is actually falling out of the sky for you though. 

 

Here is what the NAM thought would happen. Looks better than that for sure. 

[Jesse]

FWIW... the 12Z ECMWF showed the dewpoint at PDX at 4 p.m. to be 12 degrees and then 16 by 4 a.m. and 19 at 10 a.m. tomorrow.

All this wasted energy you always spend trying to talk everyone out of being excited over an event. Like your ridiculous predictions regarding the #trendingnorth low that ending up landfalling down near the California border a few days ago. Just let it ride and let people have their fun.

[TT-SEA]

There he is, #buzzkilltim

 

I don't get this.   

 

I just like to know the facts good or bad... even with things I really want to happen.   I don't understand cheerleading the weather.   

[ewnichols25]

Top of Crystal Mountain is at zero degrees with easterly gusts of 68 mph and a wind chill of -30*F. Incredible.

[Jesse]

You can't just look at surface dewpoints and think that the air is dry at all levels. Jesus.

You easily can. Just like you can look at a totally different 500mb pattern and expect the low the trend the same way regardless, then spend days stubbornly digging your heels in when people try tell you you’re wrong.