March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[Phil]

You like jinxing yourself.

The EPS finally shows at D15 ridging and it’s been so consistent!!

[TT-SEA]

The EPS finally shows at D15 ridging and it’s been so consistent!!

You seem only interested in commenting on me lately. Did you read my posts about the EPS lately? Or are you so excited to troll me that you can't contain yourself!

[Phil]

I could see a 1949 or 1951 type spring also. We are incredibly due for one like that.

 

My number one wish at this time is to have no El Nino next winter. Even though things worked out well with this one that would make it a second year Nino which is not good. Past history is on our side for neutral or cold ENSO next winter for a couple of reasons.

 

1. We just had a major multi year Nino not too long ago.

2. A multi year Nino at solar minimum would be unheard of.

 

Perhaps the most surprising thing about February is we had all of that cold weather while an ongoing raging WWB was happening in the Equatorial Pacific. Mother nature did something big to over ride that!

 

SSW beats niño.

 

And I do think a niño is likely next winter..but it’s a convoluted evolution for a number of reasons. I’ll rant about that later.

[Phil]

Our snow damage... it was like this when we got back from Hawaii. Appears that snow slid off the roof and took it out.

 

Clever way to sneak in a green grass pic.

[ShawniganLake]

Clever way to sneak in a green grass pic.

He actually destroyed a perfectly good gutter to get that patch of green grass in a photo.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just noticed the all-time March low at The Dalles is 14. Seems ripe to fall in the coming days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Also noticed temps in Central and North Central Oregon have been steadily dropping the past hour or two.

[Jesse]

Maybe we can bring back some of the "2014 - 2018: wet or droughty" arguments????? That's what's been missing in my life the past several weeks.

I’m sure Tim will be starting plenty, as usual.

[Jesse]

I can’t wrap my mind around seeing the lower basin socked in with stratus and temps in the 20s in the middle of the afternoon on 3/2.

 

22 in Pendleton with mist currently. Overcast and 28 at The Dalles.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’m sure Tim will be starting plenty, as usual.

 

He's setting up a new meme.How much wetter Oregon is than Washington. Just needs the next few weeks to be relatively dry up there with a couple more troughs focused down here. 

[Jesse]

Matt, we are way past MLK now. What gives??

[ShawniganLake]

Honestly wouldn’t surprise me if we had a Tim friendly spring.

[Jesse]

Honestly wouldn’t surprise me if we had a Tim friendly spring.

Yup. I’m feeling a very hot summer on the way too.

[BLI snowman]

GFS continues to look bone dry mid week, in sharp opposition to the Euro.

 

It will win out because there's no way the Portland metro can have nice things 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I can’t wrap my mind around seeing the lower basin socked in with stratus and temps in the 20s in the middle of the afternoon on 3/2.

 

22 in Pendleton with mist currently. Overcast and 28 at The Dalles.

 

Just looked up some of the records of the next few days so I can play along at home. Here are the record min maxes and daily mins at a few of the sites I'll be tracking

 

TDS: All-time March low is 14

 

3/2: 27/16

3/3: 30/18

3/4: 28/17

3/5: 31/16

3/6: 35/18

 

PDT: All-time March low is 1.

 

3/2: 20/11

3/3: 18/12

3/4: 26/13

3/5: 31/10

3/6: 34/19

 

Rdm: All-time March low is -1.

 

3/2: 23/9

3/3: 24/8

3/4: 29/10

3/5: 30/-1

3/6: 33/14

 

Just looking at these it is apparent many of the record lows will be crushed in the next few days.

[Jesse]

Where are the forecasts from?

[Deweydog]

Matt, we are way past MLK now. What gives??

Is it snowing out???

 

I’m in Costco, no windows!

[Jesse]

Is it snowing out???

I’m in Costco, no windows!

Even better. Inversioning!!

[Kayla]

I can’t wrap my mind around seeing the lower basin socked in with stratus and temps in the 20s in the middle of the afternoon on 3/2.

 

22 in Pendleton with mist currently. Overcast and 28 at The Dalles.

 

-2F here with light snow and 38" of snow on the ground with the coldest air still yet to come... Pretty sure we saw a Polar Bear walking by this morning.

[Deweydog]

Even better. Inversioning!!

It was 52 at our house when we left.

 

60’s without the inversioning????

[TT-SEA]

-2F here with light snow and 38" of snow on the ground with the coldest air still yet to come... Pretty sure we saw a Polar Bear walking by his morning.

LOL

[FroYoBro]

The temperature completely stalled around 1 when the east wind showed up. Pretty impressive and really interesting pattern for March. Tomorrow is going to be pretty wild compared to our average March weather. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still quite a bit of snow left in Eugene.

 

http://tripcheck.com/RoadCams/cams/ORE569WBatDeltaHwy_pid1613.jpg?rand=1551568098508

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I've already started saving money for a month long vacation in alaska or my cabin to escape the heat if we have another miserably hot summer. I like warm sunny weather in summer not scorching hot hurry and find the nearest air conditioning type stuff. It Acually is a little cooler in the summer during heat waves at my property than it is here. About 15 to 20 degrees cooler than omak on average.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

-2F here with light snow and 38" of snow on the ground with the coldest air still yet to come... Pretty sure we saw a Polar Bear walking by his morning.

Going to be some serious winter kill on deer and other wild animals I'd bet this year. Crazy stuff.

[Jesse]

It was 52 at our house when we left.

 

60’s without the inversioning????

Hit 47 for a high here an hour or so ago, down to 46 now with increasing east winds.

 

But yeah besides that really nothing of note going on regionally.

[Requiem]

The temperature completely stalled around 1 when the east wind showed up. Pretty impressive and really interesting pattern for March. Tomorrow is going to be pretty wild compared to our average March weather.

Wait, is tomorrow’s weather radically different from today’s?

[Jesse]

Wait, is tomorrow’s weather radically different from today’s?

The airmass is going to get much colder. Matt’s house low 60s though. Looking marginal there. Nice day part trés.

[Deweydog]

Hit 47 for a high here an hour or so ago, down to 46 now with increasing east winds.

 

But yeah besides that really nothing of note going on regionally.

The stuff on the east side is really unusual, but I thought you were just in d*ck mode.

 

We can discuss is seriously if you wanna, if you can wrap your head around it...

[Jesse]

The stuff on the east side is really unusual, but I thought you were just in d*ck mode.

Not really, aside from the normal back and forth joshing you constantly partake in as well. I was actually curious to hear your opinion on it.

[Kayla]

Going to be some serious winter kill on deer and other wild animals I'd bet this year. Crazy stuff.

 

Yeah... Not looking forward to hearing those numbers.    We saw several large herds of Elk and about 14 Bald Eagles grouped together today. Definitely unusual. Not sure if it's a good or a bad thing.

[High Desert Mat?]

You’re right Andrew. My temp at 10am was 24. It is now 18 at 3:15pm. Steady drop with overcast skies and slight north drift.

[Jesse]

You’re right Andrew. My temp at 10am was 24. It is now 18 at 3:15pm. Steady drop with overcast skies and slight north drift.

Mid-winter status type stuff.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You’re right Andrew. My temp at 10am was 24. It is now 18 at 3:15pm. Steady drop with overcast skies and slight north drift.

 

Do you think you will clear out tonight or stay stuck in the stratus?

[High Desert Mat?]

Do you think you will clear out tonight or stay stuck in the stratus?

We’ll stay under this deck until about noon tomorrow when we see it break up a little. Highs the next few days will be upper teens it looks like. Brrrr. Lows probably a little below zero Monday and Tuesday mornings.

[Blizzard777]

Here's what the 12Z EURO shows for Wednesday. Looks like moisture comes up from the South bringing ice to the Southern Willamette Valley. Still too dry up around PDX with the East winds eating all the moisture. But then moderate snow by the afternoon.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019030212_96_5657_155.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2019030212_99_5657_155.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2019030212_102_5657_155.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2019030212_108_5657_155.png

Ash Wednesday special !

[Blizzard777]

Our snow damage... it was like this when we got back from Hawaii. Appears that snow slid off the roof and took it out.

On top of that you have some dirty snow there! I’ve never seen that at your place in pics! I would get out the the leaf blower and evaporate the dirty edges of the snow

[Blizzard777]

East wind has surfaced at PDX with gusts 25-30 mph. Temp has also shot up to 46, but with the east wind in control now I picture them only adding a few degrees to that. Probably somewhere in the 48-ish range today.

Down here again for the weekend

Blowing in Tigard and SE PDX as well

Also weather machine back home showing some nice gusty North winds now

[wx_statman]

Silverado. 4wd for the continued harsh winters coming up.

 

Hah! That took me a second.

[Deweydog]

On top of that you have some dirty snow there! I’ve never seen that at your place in pics! I would get out the the leaf blower and evaporate the dirty edges of the snow

I always figured his HOA made him strain his snow for contaminants.