March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[wx_statman]

Bozeman MSU reading just came in at -30 this morning. Coldest March reading on record beating out 1932 with records going back to 1892. This mornings reading is the coldest temp at MSU since December 1990. Incredibly historic airmass aided by a historic snowpack.

 

Also looks like BZN pulled off a -53 departure today. Do you know what the lower 48 negative departure record is?

 

Don't know, but I've seen daily deps more than 60 degrees below average on the books before, at random places in random cold waves. Can't remember which ones. 

[Bryant]

Knock it off. 16 year olds are to be seen and not heard, or if heard you’re supposed to make up the most versed, multi-faceted and climatologically-fascinating early retired adult persona you can dream up.

 

-Bryant

Whatever you say Dewey. You are constantly bringing up old nonsense with my name attached, and I'm not sure why.

[Weiner Warrior]

Responses should be in bold.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I live in kirkland so I suggest olive garden! Their daquiris are delicious

You sure love Olive Garden! I prefer meat. Buffalo Wild Wings or Outback Steakhouse.

[Kayla]

I would imagine deer, elk, raptors are all going to take a hit this winter.  I think it was three years ago Baker City region lost 30% of their deer pops.  Deep snow and many below zero days/(nights).  Populations rebounded nicely but it was tough on survival for mammals and birds.  Will be interesting to see how your area is impacted.  I saw my first Osprey on the Clackamas River Feb 3rd.  Earliest I have ever seen one locally.  He was hanging around a local trout pond  so it might make it until things warm up.  I can't imagine finding fish on the surface of an water locally this season will be easy to find until things warm up.  Do baldies winter in your area at all?  We have good wintering populations but obviously much easier for them to find food here. 

 

Yeah really hoping for the best but I can't imagine the numbers are going to be good. I know a lot of the ranchers are working around the clock to keep the calves alive. The combination of a deep late season snowpack and record breaking cold has been fun to track but I can't help but think about all the creatures (including humans!) that have to be out in these elements around the clock.

 

Yes we have lots of Eagles that winter here! In fact just the other day I saw the largest grouping of them in a couple of trees. Probably about 12-15 of them. We have several that live in our neighborhood as well. They seem to be doing alright by the numbers that I see around town right now. Still seeing lots of Elk as well so hoping that's a good sign. Haven't seen a single deer in several weeks though.

[Front Ranger]

I did not say it was not a big deal. I said it was very impressive. And said it was also impressive on this side of the mountains to the south.

 

But its definitely low impact around here compared to what we have been through over the last month. And seems almost pleasant. So what?

 

I never really care about cold without snow... so I am NOT a good guide on historical significance. I just don't care that much. I usually go by impact. And the stuff east of the mountains is high impact stuff. Almost crippling in Montana.

 

We have had lots of high impact weather here recently too. This is the complete opposite.

 

It's relative. It's March in western WA. And there's been impressive cold in King County.

 

And it's extremely silly to act like you only care about "high impact" weather. Thousands of posts show otherwise.

[Weiner Warrior]

The Eagles suck

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The Eagles suck

 

Can't believe they let Big **** Nick go!

[Perturbed Member]

Failshington County!

[Requiem]

The Eagles suck

I dunno, Hotel California is great.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Failshington County!

 

Almost poetic.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This place is a f*cking warzone tonight! 

[TacomaWaWx]

Beautiful sunset tonight on orcas island overlooking towards Vancouver island, very cold though. Sat by the fire for a few hours tonight preparing for our hike up to the top of the foothills on the island. For anyone who hasn’t seen the San Juan’s..they really should it’s absolutely beautiful here! It’s a really amazing time to go This year especially since it’s been so cold there’s snow above 750ft or so in elevation on the island it’s really cool to see in March

[Front Ranger]

Don't know, but I've seen daily deps more than 60 degrees below average on the books before, at random places in random cold waves. Can't remember which ones. 

 

Seems like it would be extremely rare. Looking at a lot of the all-time state records, most of those are in the -45 to -55 departure range. 

 

The real hard part tends to be getting highs that are more than 35-40 degrees below average most places. For example, with Mazama's WA state record of -48 in Dec 1968, they had a high of -18...which was a -42 departure. Combine that with an extreme low that was 59 degrees below average, and you have a state record that is 50 degrees below average.

[Kayla]

This place is a f*cking warzone tonight! 

 

Welcome to the shoulder season!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Failshington County!

Need to shift everything 25 miles west.

[epiceast]

This place is a f*cking warzone tonight! 

It happens every time the Euro shows snow for PDX this winter.

[Perturbed Member]

Almost poetic.

 

This is as far west as the precip makes it on the WRF. Its honestly completely fine now, we're used to it. 

 

[GHweatherChris]

Any moisture that any of us get will be here way earlier than being shown, been that way for every system the last month.

[Requiem]

Mark has a new blog post up.

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2019/03/04/cold-showers-wednesday-friday-brief-snow-in-spots/#comments

 

Does he get an early version of the EURO or something? I find the fact that he said the EURO shows very little snow in PDX weird (as the snow maps have 2-4 inches here- an inch at least).

[GHweatherChris]

Need to shift everything 25 miles west.

75 to 100

[TT-SEA]

It's relative. It's March in western WA. And there's been impressive cold in King County.

 

And it's extremely silly to act like you only care about "high impact" weather. Thousands of posts show otherwise.

 

And I said that I am not a good guide on historical significance.    I personally don't care that highs in the 40s are historically cold in Seattle in March... normal is 52.    Both feel pleasant on a sunny day.     Its hard to tell the difference.   It usually feels somewhat chilly in March.

 

And I love low impact weather.  I care very much about it.   But also recognize and take interest when we have high impact weather like windstorms, or heavy rain, or heavy snow, etc.

 

I would care much more if I lived east of the mountains... or in Montana.   That is crazy sh*t.    Anyone flying from Bozeman to Seattle today probably felt like they just landed in Hawaii.   

[Front Ranger]

I dunno, Hotel California is great.

 

The way summers have been going, they're gonna have to rename that Hotel Oregon pretty soon.

[Front Ranger]

And I said that I am not a good guide on historical significance.    I personally don't care that highs in the 40s is historically cold in Seattle in March... normal is 52.    Both feel pleasant on a sunny day.     Its hard to tell the difference.   It usually feels somewhat chilly in March.

 

No one is saying the highs are historically cold. 

 

When you play dumb like this, it just makes you look worse and more obvious.

[Bryant]

It happens every time the Euro shows snow for PDX this winter.

Stuff going on tonight doesn't have anything to do with PDX snow

[FroYoBro]

This is as far west as the precip makes it on the WRF. Its honestly completely fine now, we're used to it.

 

 

Of course that is how it will play out.

[TT-SEA]

WRF about the same as this morning... I have a feeling it is wrong this time.   I had a feeling the ECMWF was going to be wrong last time.   

 

 

 

[bainbridgekid]

Mark has a new blog post up.

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2019/03/04/cold-showers-wednesday-friday-brief-snow-in-spots/#comments

 

Does he get an early version of the EURO or something? I find the fact that he said the EURO shows very little snow in PDX weird (as the snow maps have 2-4 inches here- an inch at least).

He said the EURO shows little snow through Wednesday afternoon, but shows more snow Wednesday night.

 

He definitely doesn't have access to early models, so I'm sure he was talking about the 12z.

[TT-SEA]

No one is saying the highs are historically cold.

 

When you play dumb like this, it just makes you look worse and more obvious.

 

I don't care about lows in the 20s either. But I am told that its historically significant. In March... it has almost no impact. And it has not even been in the 20s here yet... low of 30 this morning and currently 35. If I don't care about lows in the 20s here... then I care even less about it happening at OLM.

 

Why does it matter that I don't really care? If you enjoy the historical significance... then enjoy away! As I enjoy the sunny, pleasant days that make me want to be outside.

 

I am watching in amazement at what is happening to the east and thankful that I am not there.

[Perturbed Member]

Mark has a new blog post up.

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2019/03/04/cold-showers-wednesday-friday-brief-snow-in-spots/#comments

 

Does he get an early version of the EURO or something? I find the fact that he said the EURO shows very little snow in PDX weird (as the snow maps have 2-4 inches here- an inch at least).

 

The euro brings a band of snow through PDX Wednesday evening and gives us most of our accumulations. Mark doesn't buy that it will be snowing at that time. He is saying euro shows very little snow in PDX earlier in the day and that is accurate. 

[wx_statman]

Seems like it would be extremely rare. Looking at a lot of the all-time state records, most of those are in the -45 to -55 departure range. 

 

The real hard part tends to be getting highs that are more than 35-40 degrees below average most places. For example, with Mazama's WA state record of -48 in Dec 1968, they had a high of -18...which was a -42 departure. Combine that with an extreme low that was 59 degrees below average, and you have a state record that is 50 degrees below average.

It’s extremely rare, but it has happened in the past. For example Havre was 61 degrees below normal on 1/27/1916 with a max of -38 and min of -57. Eureka Ranger Station posted a 58 degree departure on 12/30/1968, with a -27/-50 day west of the continental divide.

 

I have to imagine 53 degrees is about the limit of what we’ve seen in recent decades though.

[TT-SEA]

It’s extremely rare, but it has happened in the past. For example Havre was 61 degrees below normal on 1/27/1916 with a max of -38 and min of -57. Eureka Ranger Station posted a 58 degree departure on 12/30/1968, with a -27/-50 day west of the continental divide.

 

I have to imagine 53 degrees is about the limit of what we’ve seen in recent decades though.

Seems almost impossible. Just crazy.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Down to the last shaded patches of snow here. More snow left along inland areas on the east side of the island, a few patchy areas in the Fraser Valley, and Southern Oregon:

 

[Esquimalt]

Down to the last shaded patches of snow here. More snow left along inland areas on the east side of the island, a few patchy areas in the Fraser Valley, and Southern Oregon:

 

Are you expecting much here on Wednesday night?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Here's what the 00Z UKMET shows for precipitation Tuesday 10pm to Wednesday 10pm.

 

[Timmy]

Just got home, looks like a 35-17 day. Currently 24

[Requiem]

Here's what the 00Z UKMET shows for precipitation Tuesday 10pm to Wednesday 10pm.

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019030500_36_5618_228.png

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019030500_42_5618_22.pngus_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019030500_48_5618_228.pngus_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019030500_54_5618_228.png

Not bad!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Are you expecting much here on Wednesday night?

 

Nope, a trace if we're lucky. A few hundred km to the west and we might be in for something decent, but this has a lot of factors going against it.

[ShawniganLake]

Down to the last shaded patches of snow here. More snow left along inland areas on the east side of the island, a few patchy areas in the Fraser Valley, and Southern Oregon:

 

There’s still probably 6-8” in the shade here. More like 2-5” in the front yard which gets the mid day sun.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Not bad!

I wish there was more moisture to work with in the morning but the solid band of moisture it shows for late afternoon/evening looks intriguing. Those with some elevation might be able to score some accumulations.