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April 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW


Omegaraptor

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Reminds me of when I read this book. The movie was terrible.

 

attachicon.gif918WSl3CjyL.jpg

 

Yeah the book was okay, it got kind of repetitive though. I liked the first 1/3 of the book quite a bit. The movie was  just terrible.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Moisture plume is farther south again on Sunday on the 12Z ECMWF compared to the last couple runs... might be a yard work day up here.

 

Not so much for Tiger though...  

 

ecmwf-precip-06-nw-15-1.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Dry sunday in the 50s perfect for yard work

Might be in the low 60s.

 

Have to see another run with the southward solution to believe it though.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Might be in the low 60s.

 

Have to see another run with the southward solution to believe it though.

Was looking good for rain not too long ago looked like a soaker.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Yes I am. I don't typically like to judge people just based on when they were born. Humans are more complicated than that.

I tend to agree. Unfortunately all of those lazy, worthless millenials born strictly between 1982 and 2000 don’t feel the same way. <_>

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We should all be worried about the generation after gen Z...gen Z is anyone born after 1995 (I was born in 1999). Then Gen alpha is anyone born after 2014. Kids under 10-13 years old or so will never know what life was like before cell phones took over everyone’s life along with social media changed life forever. I am not much older but I still saw a small glimpse what life was like before everything changed entirely. I wish I was born in the 60s...people seemed more trustworthy and nice with values now it seems in this day and age that’s all gone.

Humans have not gotten worse, at least by standards of living and social progressivism. The 60s has their fair share of darkness as well- every single time in history does.

 

And plus, had you lived in the 60s this blog and most modern-day weather services would either not exist or be very primitive.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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ECMWF has been trending a little farther north with the ULL action down south next week.   Does not look very wet... but a few more showers than previous runs and definitely cooler.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Your leafage looks quite a bit more progressed than the trees around Gresham. It seems we are behind a week or two.

 

 

I think its been a little warmer up here for the last 2-3 weeks... and was definitely so during the big warm spell in the mid-March.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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About time someone did something about the invading Californians.

A forum for the end of the world.

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My slugs like gravel as well!

Or maybe he likes the leaves next to the gravel?

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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Isn't Phil a millennial?

Yep. Was just probing to see if he was Dome Buster.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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Probably at peak bloom today...

 

20190404-122523.jpg

Speaking of blooms, going nuts here now. Took a walk through the neighborhood this afternoon and everyone was outside.

 

iJYOPbZ.jpg

mmet4Yr.jpg

BdY7Ned.jpg

kfb3imz.jpg

Kg1sr0Z.jpg

sfijhLD.jpg

7sSYkNs.jpg

  • Like 3
foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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Beautiful pics Phil.

Thanks man.

 

I just wish they’d lined my street with cherry blossoms too, instead of these hideous London Planes.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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Lots of pointless pictures of the same tree today. Let's talk about elk.

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The 18z GFS is Jesse-tastic. Legit -NAO and troughing for the majority of the next 16 days, verbatim.

 

Still a dynamic, winter-like wavetrain present across the Northern Hemisphere, as the NAM/PV is still holding its winter structure.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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The 18z GFS is Jesse-tastic. Legit -NAO and troughing for the majority of the next 16 days, verbatim.

 

Still a dynamic, winter-like wavetrain present across the Northern Hemisphere, as the NAM/PV is still holding its winter structure.

 

 

12Z EPS was pretty quiet overall after the wet period over the next few days.   Looks like pleasant spring weather... probably some showers at times and near normal temps.   A clear progression eastward progression of the troughing over the next 15 days.

 

0-5 day mean:

 

eps-z500a-5d-noram-21.png

 

5-10 day mean:

 

eps-z500a-5d-noram-41-1.png

 

10-15 day mean:

 

eps-z500a-5d-noram-61-1.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Be careful when interpreting ensemble means in the extended range. The smoothing gives an impression of quiet weather but the majority of members have a consistent trough/ridge/trough cycle for the PNW and western plains.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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Please don’t make me a target for the mania, Phil. :lol:

 

:lol:

 

Posting the EPS is not mania.    

 

And I am not wrong with my analysis either.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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FWIW, days 1-5 (jet extension) are more of the “warm and wet” variety, while the extended range develops more blocking and meridional flow.

 

Zyzd2C0.png

QF9i27r.png

MGOUeDy.png

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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Whenever Baffin Island torches like that, the PNW is almost always cool or normal/zonalish. And vice versa.

 

Correlates better than any teleconnection index I know.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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FWIW, days 1-5 (jet extension) are more of the “warm and wet” variety, while the extended range develops more blocking and meridional flow.

 

 

I am well aware. 

 

And the EPS shows generally pleasant weather with near normal temps overall after the wet period over the next few days.

 

Check back with me on 4/15 and we will score the results.     :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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