TacomaWaWx Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 Currently at 67F here, good chance we hit 70F. Not sure what the big deal is, feels like pretty typical PNW summer weather to me. The past few years were abnormal. Yeah same here I don’t get how this is bad. Its been really nice for the most part. It’s not like it’s been raining everyday either it’s been average PNW summer weather. 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 Euro is not nearly as troughy as the GFS. Would still likely produce a number of groan-inducing days for Tim, though. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 Currently at 67F here, good chance we hit 70F. Not sure what the big deal is, feels like pretty typical PNW summer weather to me. The past few years were abnormal.Yeah same here I don’t get how this is bad. Its been really nice for the most part. It’s not like it’s been raining everyday either it’s been average PNW summer weather.This. I think recency bias following the 2013-18 blast furnace might have skewed people’s perspectives somewhat. Patterns don’t “lock in” like that very often. After a dry/warm June, a cool/wet July of a similar magnitude is not surprising. Statistically speaking, you guys are “due” for a course correction towards more summer troughing (even if Mother Nature technically doesn’t work like that). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 The 12z EPS is deliciously troughy after D10. Would be awesome if it lasted through my trip. I haven’t experienced a PNW summer trough yet..a major item on my wx-weenie checklist. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 Looks pretty "nice" in Seattle. Screenshot_2.png weird here is what I just uploaded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 The 12z EPS is deliciously troughy after D10. Would be awesome if it lasted through my trip. I haven’t experienced a PNW summer trough yet..a major item on my wx-weenie checklist.That is not really troughy... 500mb heights are about normal. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 That is not really troughy... 500mb heights are about normal.That’s because variation amongst the ensemble members always “dampens” anomalies in the long range. You have to analyze the pattern structure. This would be a cool pattern, if it verifies, regardless of the dampened anomalies. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 67 degrees as of 2pm. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 Phil just curious, do you see the same cool damp pattern as cliff mass into aug Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 Okay, fun game (but be nice of course). If each person on here had a specific “title”, what would they be? Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 Phil just curious, do you see the same cool damp pattern as cliff mass into augPhil had July with warmer anomalies than June. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 Phil had July with warmer anomalies than June. Didn’t he at some point say that there would be a week or two of 2011-like weather at some point in July? Maybe this is it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 Still in the clouds in the S Valley. 69F and same temp inside as outside. Now let's have a 68-69-type winter event pls (not gonna happen since we had a 1 in 50 chance dump in Feb). Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 Still in the clouds in the S Valley. 69F and same temp inside as outside. Now let's have a 68-69-type winter event pls (not gonna happen since we had a 1 in 50 chance dump in Feb).Nature doesn’t work that way. We’re not due anything. If we were, we would have had a cool summer a long time ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 Pretty funny... we are wine tasting in 85 degree sun but it now appears to be sunny at home per our cams. I am cursed! As everyone is aware. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 Beautiful 78 and sunny here. Light breeze going. Just finished weeding and mowing the yard, sprinkler is going and just took some chicken and steak out for grilling later. Life is good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 Not a trace of blue sky here. 65 at PDX, 66 at HIO. Yeah, “summer” it is all right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 Not a trace of blue sky here.At least the temperature is manageable. The humidity here in Tokyo is insane. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 Still in the clouds in the S Valley. 69F and same temp inside as outside. Now let's have a 68-69-type winter event pls (not gonna happen since we had a 1 in 50 chance dump in Feb). It would be the impressive to have back to back hard hitting snowy winters. So far this summer being cooler is a good sign but it still doesn’t mean we will get another snowstorm this upcoming winter. Some years it’s coorelated into good winters in western WA and OR and some years it just hasn’t materialized. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 At least the temperature is manageable. The humidity here in Tokyo is insane. Have fun being in japan stay safe. 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 Not a trace of blue sky here. 65 at PDX, 66 at HIO. Yeah, “summer” it is all right. Sun has been on and off here currently mostly cloudy and 68. It’s really not all that uncommon for summers like this to happen. Wait until later in July or August I am pretty sure there’s going to be a heat spell at some point. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 3 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 Didn’t he at some point say that there would be a week or two of 2011-like weather at some point in July? Maybe this is it. Phil says a lot of things. Almost impossible to keep track. But he definitely had July warmer than June in the summer forecast thread. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 How about a windstorm? With all the weather wishing being done on here I thought I’d cast my coin into the well......... PDX just had one of their strongest wind gusts on record for July last week. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 Sun has been on and off here currently mostly cloudy and 68. It’s really not all that uncommon for summers like this to happen. Wait until later in July or August I am pretty sure there’s going to be a heat spell at some point.Warm September this year? A cool July can often lead into a warm September. This happened in 2011 and 2012. 1993 was an extreme example. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted July 6, 2019 Author Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 I find it interesting how some do not consider mid-low 80's to be "summer". Just speaking in general, throughout social media. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 Warm September this year? A cool July can often lead into a warm September. This happened in 2011 and 2012. 1993 was an extreme example. Yeah maybe. Kind of like how there’s backloaded winters with all the winter weather happening in February there’s backloaded summers with cooler conditions in July and part of August leading to more heat in September. Could end up being one of those years. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted July 6, 2019 Author Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 PDX just had one of their strongest wind gusts on record for July last week. And what's that, 25mph? Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 And what's that, 25mph? Thought it was in the mid 40s if I’m not mistaken with that good t-storm that rolled through on the 1st with the ef-0 tornado. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 Yeah maybe. Kind of like how there’s backloaded winters with all the winter weather happening in February there’s backloaded summers with cooler conditions in July and part of August leading to more heat in September. Could end up being one of those years.Now the real question - have the Februaries of the 2010s been unusually cold, or were the Februaries of the 2000s unusually warm? Looking at Portland’s temperature history, February seems to have fluctuated quite a bit. Looking at airport average high temps since the 1940s, the five months that haven’t clearly trended warmer are Feb, June, Oct, Nov, and Dec. Those months have just kind of fluctuated. January average high jumped from 45.8°F in the 71-00 period to 47.0°F in the 81-10 period which is pretty sharp. I can also use XM-ACIS to see 1990-2019 stats. February has dropped pretty hard in recent years. 50.6°F average which is well down from the 51.3°F in the 81-10 stats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted July 6, 2019 Author Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 Warm September this year? A cool July can often lead into a warm September. This happened in 2011 and 2012. 1993 was an extreme example. If I remember right, 1995 happened like that too. Well probably not the whole month of Sep was warm that year, but it looked like some of the hottest summer temps at PDX occurred in Sep 1995. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 And what's that, 25mph? 40! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 If you keep it up for a few more years you might actually convince someone to prefer the “correct” type of summer weather.Someone’s got to match Tim’s rhetoric, which granted is less obvious to those who agree with it such as yourself. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 Now the real question - have the Februaries of the 2010s been unusually cold, or were the Februaries of the 2000s unusually warm? Looking at Portland’s temperature history, February seems to have fluctuated quite a bit. Looking at airport average high temps since the 1940s, the five months that haven’t clearly trended warmer are Feb, June, Oct, Nov, and Dec. Those months have just kind of fluctuated. January average high jumped from 45.8°F in the 71-00 period to 47.0°F in the 81-10 period which is pretty sharp. I can also use XM-ACIS to see 1990-2019 stats. February has dropped pretty hard in recent years. 50.6°F average which is well down from the 51.3°F in the 81-10 stats. It’s hard for me to say as i don’t know Portland’s weather history as much as I know Seattle’s. I think it was more that the Februaries in the 00s were just warmer than normal to average. The Februaries in the 10s have had 5 cold ones, 2 average ones and 3 warmer ones. It’s hard for me to say though like I said I’m not 100% on statistics for Portland. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 Still only 68 degrees as of 4:15pm. Looks like we could eke out a 70 degree high still. Overall the first week of July has been fairly 2010/2011 like. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted July 6, 2019 Author Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 A pleasant 80 degrees this hazy afternoon. Feels a wee bit better than 95 and being inside an 88 degree house all July. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 High at PDX currently 67. 12°F below normal. Feels more like May than July. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 6, 2019 Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 I haven't turned the AC off once yet this month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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