PNW April 2023 Weather Discussion

[TT-SEA]

I am not sure if it will actually verify... but its really interesting how the models seem to be going towards a classic Nino pattern so quickly given that the Nino is just developing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

My area of the peninsula will for sure be in a drought by August. I only have 4.78" of rain this year and only 3.5" in Nov-Dec of last year. My pond never filled and is already receding. It is going to be a rough summer for all my native saplings I planted. 

Unreal.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Unreal.

Given the setup for the last 6 months it really is wild. Shadow worked in overdrive. Maybe we get some showers this summer and I get to see my first August rain.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Unreal.

Its pretty challenging to solve the western drought situation and keep western WA wet.    Nature decided to focus the action to the south this year which was desperately needed.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am not sure if it will actually verify... but its really interesting how the models seem to be going towards a classic Nino pattern so quickly given that the Nino is just developing.

It's been a Nino-like pattern all winter, despite the 3-peat La Nina.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

It's been a Nino-like pattern all winter, despite the 3-peat La Nina.

Good point.

[Phishy Wx]

been dry in Spokane too.  snow decent, but still below average on moisture

[ShawniganLake]

46 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Rough. Could definitely be drought building into the north part of Washington. Meanwhile the rich get richer further south. 

We definitely needed some type of pattern change to bring some rain to the BC interior.  Upper level lows with some SE flow could do the trick if they aren’t too far south.  Kamloops has had just 0.13” of precip in the past 8+ weeks. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I need to tabulate our precip, but my feeling is it is slightly below average, but not a dire situation around here. April will end up a bit over 8” which is about 2” above normal. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

@Cascadia_Wx

[Rubus Leucodermis]

A rainy start to the day here in Vancouver, but the overcast is starting to break up now.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF just dents the warm air mass on Sunday and it's coming back already again on Monday.   Warmer and faster than it's 00Z run.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

A rainy start to the day here in Vancouver, but the overcast is starting to break up now.

Had some mid level clouds move through here this morning... but sunny and up to 60 now.

[Deweydog]

[TT-SEA]

Warmth comes back with a vengeance by Tuesday on the 12Z ECMWF.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Fill the basin! 

Was there about 6 years ago and it was sad how low the water levels were. Would be nice to get a good refill. Pity that part of the world is so far away. Would be nice to visit when the basin is green and lush.

[Slushy Inch]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Warmth comes back with a vengeance by Tuesday on the 12Z ECMWF.

Here comes the complaints about a perma ridge. I hope we get some thunderstorms out of wrap around flow. Still possible.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Here comes the complaints about a perma ridge. I hope we get some thunderstorms out of wrap around flow. Still possible.

No idea if it will work out this way... but May tends to be warm during developing Ninos.    Doesn't mean much for the heart of summer though.    

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

No idea if it will work out this way... but May tends to be warm during developing Ninos.    Doesn't mean much for the heart of summer though.    

Ensembles certainly don’t look like the Euro Op.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Ensembles certainly don’t look like the Euro Op.

The 00Z EPS actually had the same general placement of the major features as the new 12Z ECMWF.     The operational is not too different other than the ridge is stronger but that could just be because the EPS is a smoothed mean.

[TacomaWx]

It’s becoming clear that the good fight against weather evil has turned…and a more satanic weather regime is taking hold. 

[Omegaraptor]

 

Get the boats ready!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It’s becoming clear that the good fight against weather evil has turned…and a more satanic weather regime is taking hold. 

Yeah it was inevitable. We held back the heathens as long as possible. A great winter and first half of spring. 

[TT-SEA]

28 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Ensembles certainly don’t look like the Euro Op.

12Z EPS and control run both show the warmth coming back quickly as well.   Pretty good agreement at least so far with the ECMWF. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah it was inevitable. We held back the heathens as long as possible. A great winter and first half of spring. 

The negative anomaly stats will soon be replaced by the inevitable tide of lake sammamish boat pics  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

 

Get the boats ready!

Scorcho de Mayo.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It’s becoming clear that the good fight against weather evil has turned…and a more satanic weather regime is taking hold. 

As @Meatyorologist has said... this is well earned.   After months of colder than normal weather and one of the latest leaf outs possible.     Finally something different.   That being said... I hope summer plays out differently this year.   And that seems more likely at this point since we are now solidly breaking away from the progression of last spring.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

The negative anomaly stats will soon be replaced by the inevitable tide of lake sammamish boat pics  

Yep. Tim will rub the warm weather in our faces while privilege flexing his status as a member of the 1%. I promise you I will never forget the 99% and where I come from. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

As @Meatyorologist has said... this is well earned.   After months of colder than normal weather and one of the latest leaf outs possible.     Finally something different.   That being said... I hope summer plays out differently this year.   And that seems more likely now since we are now solidly breaking away from the progression of last spring.  

Yeah it couldn’t stay cold forever. Nice timing for a warm spell on the weekend! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

As @Meatyorologist has said... this is well earned.   After months of colder than normal weather and one of the latest leaf outs possible.     Finally something different.   That being said... I hope summer plays out differently this year.   And that seems more likely at this point since we are now solidly breaking away from the progression of last spring.  

Looking forward to wearing shorts and a tank top again. It’s been a long time coming.

[TT-SEA]

Enjoying a break between meetings on the deck and it actually feels hot out here.  Much warmer than it actually is... with full sun and not even a whisper of a breeze.   Not sure I could sit here for a long time.    But that won't be a problem since I have more meetings starting at 1.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yep. Tim will rub the warm weather in our faces while privilege flexing his status as a member of the 1%. I promise you I will never forget the 99% and where I come from. 

You can be on the lake in a $100 kayak or paddle board.  Or on a $5 inflatable raft you got at a garage sale.   Lake Sammamish is a public jewel for everyone to enjoy.  

[TacomaWx]

Very nice day up to 61 after a low of 42. We’re probably done with low temps in the 30s until fall. Might end up close to or the warmest day of the year today. Max temp so far is 64 for 2023. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Enjoying a break between meetings on the deck and it actually feels hot out here.  Much warmer than it actually is... with full sun and not even a whisper of a breeze.   Not sure I could sit here for a long time.    But that won't be a problem since I have more meetings starting at 1.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Mid 60s on a sheltered deck with no air movement begs for a sun umbrella.  

[Slushy Inch]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS and control run both show the warmth coming back quickly as well.   Pretty good agreement at least so far with the ECMWF. 

Looks like I was somewhat wrong. Though GEFS and GEPS are different. Could be back to back warm spells.

[Omegaraptor]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

The negative anomaly stats will soon be replaced by the inevitable tide of lake sammamish boat pics  

Current sea temps in the Caribbean look to be around 79-82F at the big resorts. Let's see if Sammamish can break that by next week.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Current sea temps in the Caribbean look to be around 79-82F at the big resorts. Let's see if Sammamish can break that by next week.

Probably by Friday!

But 75-80 is pretty much normal for mid to late summer there.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh man, Chris is on one… 

[Phishy Wx]

my tan will be spectacular this summer

I will head back east for late summer if smoke gets bad

it is what it is