PNW April 2023 Weather Discussion

[Meatyorologist]

There's been a recent trend southward with the incoming ULL swinging into California. This opens the door to more negative tilting and convection in the area Sunday. The 18z Euro finally jumped the gun and has a midlevel thunderstorm complex firing over the Sound midday. Also note the prominent convective activity Monday morning.

[MossMan]

64/39 on the day. 

[Meatyorologist]

The GFS and the ICON both end up in a rudderless mess of a weather pattern.

[the_convergence_zone]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

The sky was very milky in Wenatchee today, could have been the prescribed burns going on? Not sure. 

It might be dust/pollution from Asia, spring is the time of year when it tends to make the trip over and there was a strong zonal jet over the Pacific last week. I few years ago I worked with some scientists from Olympic NP who said they detect all sorts of heavy metals in their “pristine” alpine lakes as well as dust that can be traced to Mongolia. 
 

I ended up only hitting 64 today thanks to the northerlies off the Sound, yesterday was 68. 

[Phil]

Holy s*****

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

The GFS and the ICON both end up in a rudderless mess of a weather pattern.

Looks on the wet side with a bunch of convective opportunities to me.

[Deweydog]

22 minutes ago, Phil said:

Holy s*****

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with an 80/49 spread here today. Was expecting tomorrow to be the first 80 of the season but today overachieved. Tomorrow looks very toasty, possibly pushing 90 in some spots. Fortunately it looks like we see a reprieve starting Sunday.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 hours ago, MossMan said:

The sky was very milky in Wenatchee today, could have been the prescribed burns going on? Not sure. 

Skies have been pretty ugly here this warm period so far too.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Nice looking Euro run after Saturday.

[TacomaWx]

51 after a low of 50…back to back lows above 50 degrees. Feels like a summer morning. 

[TacomaWx]

Euro showing a late season snow event in Yellowstone the day before I get there. Still anyones guess as to what it’ll be like over there at this range though 

[TT-SEA]

8 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It might be dust/pollution from Asia, spring is the time of year when it tends to make the trip over and there was a strong zonal jet over the Pacific last week. I few years ago I worked with some scientists from Olympic NP who said they detect all sorts of heavy metals in their “pristine” alpine lakes as well as dust that can be traced to Mongolia. 
 

I ended up only hitting 64 today thanks to the northerlies off the Sound, yesterday was 68. 

The was a thin layer of high clouds yesterday... it was basically transparent but made the sky appear sort of milky and not deep blue.  

The ECMWF cloud loop from yesterday morning shows this well.    The ECMWF usually makes high clouds look thicker than reality... but you can see from this loop that is was shield of high clouds. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z GFS was a solid run. Not much precip this next week as it mostly goes south. Next week very soggy with a huge snow event for south central Oregons highlands. 

Edited April 28, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[TT-SEA]

7 hours ago, Phil said:

Holy s*****

I noticed that the MJO has picked up speed too.   It looks like its going to be cranking through most of the phases over the next few weeks.    Is this related to the very high AAM values?    I think that should mean variable weather.

[LowerGarfield]

Yesterday was nice. About seventy and actually a bit cold last night after sunset. Today should be quite warmer. Tomorrow we're going to Hells Gate State Park and have a river beach day.

[LowerGarfield]

What did the Euro show for north Texas next weekend? Going to a wedding there.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

What did the Euro show for north Texas next weekend? Going to a wedding there.

Dry both days (5/6 and 5/7) with highs in the low to mid 70s.

[LowerGarfield]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Dry both days (5/6 and 5/7) with highs in the low to mid 70s.

That's good. I know today they might get some large hail maybe south of the metroplex. Sister's wedding is the sixth and in the evening hours where storms typically are favored.

[Skagit Weather]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

51 after a low of 50…back to back lows above 50 degrees. Feels like a summer morning. 

Remarkably different than up here. Yesterday it was 39F and this morning it dropped to 44F, so definitely not quite summery yet. Of course it only got to 60F yesterday as well, so both the high and low were pretty depressed compared to down south. I can't believe places were above 80F yesterday.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

That's good. I know today they might get some large hail maybe south of the metroplex. Sister's wedding is the sixth and in the evening hours where storms typically are favored.

Right now ECMWF shows dry NW flow that weekend which is not a thunderstorm pattern there.    But it is still 8-9 days away so could definitely change.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Remarkably different than up here. Yesterday it was 39F and this morning it dropped to 44F, so definitely not quite summery yet. Of course it only got to 60F yesterday as well, so both the high and low were pretty depressed compared to down south. I can't believe places were above 80F yesterday.

It was 60 here by 10:30 a.m. yesterday and 73 for a high.    Although SEA only had a high of 68.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Overnight low of 44.2°F here. Official forecast says upper 70’s this afternoon.

[Anti Marine Layer]

When does the 2nd heat wave hit Portland? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

When does the 2nd heat wave hit Portland? 

June 21-October 15th. 

[AlTahoe]

2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Euro showing a late season snow event in Yellowstone the day before I get there. Still anyones guess as to what it’ll be like over there at this range though 

I am in the Purple! I think we have had 2-10" of snow every May since I have lived here except for a couple of seasons. 

[SnowySeeker50]

Yesterday had a high of 69 degrees. A low of 46 this morning and currently 51 degrees.

[T-Town]

2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

51 after a low of 50…back to back lows above 50 degrees. Feels like a summer morning. 

Too soon for the rain to shut off but I will definitely enjoy the next couple days. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

Remarkably different than up here. Yesterday it was 39F and this morning it dropped to 44F, so definitely not quite summery yet. Of course it only got to 60F yesterday as well, so both the high and low were pretty depressed compared to down south. I can't believe places were above 80F yesterday.

Same here. High was 63 yesterday. Got down to 38 this morning.

[TT-SEA]

Up to 63 here already... a light east breeze seems to be surfacing.  

[TT-SEA]

Tuesday and Wednesday seem to be trending a little warmer again.    12Z GEM is much warmer for those days than its 00Z run.     06Z ECMWF trended warmer for Monday as well with the ULL quite a bit farther south that day compared to its 00Z run.

[ShawniganLake]

Down to 40 this morning after 67 yesterday.   Should crack 70 today. Nice to feel that warm sun again. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEM is very warm again next weekend.   12Z GFS is much more robust with the ULL/trough offshore at that time.

[Cold Snap]

Up to 56.8 after a low of 43. Actually colder than yesterdays low.

[Timmy]

The Columbia was flat calm at 2pm yesterday. A rarity! Mt st Helen’s in the background.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Timmy said:

The Columbia was flat calm at 2pm yesterday. A rarity! Mt st Helen’s in the background.

As others have mentioned... air quality looks horrible and the sky is very ugly.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

As others have mentioned... air quality looks horrible and the sky is very ugly.    

When I flew into PDX a little after 10am yesterday morning, the sky looked pretty hazy, but between Mt. Adams and Mt. Rainier the air quality definitely deteriorated significantly and you could barely see the bottom half of Rainier and not the top half. 

[FroYoBro]

Wow, it’s warming up fast out here this morning. It’s already 76 here which is about 10 degrees warmer than pdx.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEM is very warm again next weekend.   12Z GFS is much more robust with the ULL/trough offshore at that time.

Yeah, it pretty much rains the entire weekend on the GFS. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, it pretty much rains the entire weekend on the GFS. 

Go Canada!