PNW April 2023 Weather Discussion

[TT-SEA]

82 here and in NB.   72 at SEA.    

Trees have rapidly leafed out over the last 3 days in my area.   Would have taken weeks longer at the pace we were going.  

[LowerGarfield]

84F here and 88F in Lewiston almost at river level where we were earlier today.

[Meatyorologist]

4 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Up to 70 here after a very mild low of 58. East wind kept up much of the night. Could have a midnight low tonight with onshore gradients increasing.

Models sure have been volatile for next week. Would be nice to see some thunderstorms at any rate. The large scale pattern is favorable for chances to pop up regardless of what each run shows.

Yeah, the next few weeks are going to be a volatile mesoscale soup, with negative tilting persisting over the area for an extended period of time and impulses riding around the ULL to our SW.

Tuesday looks like a really sneaky big thunderstorm setup over the Seattle area... look at those 500-750mb lapse rates and PWATs! Steering flow out of the SE, too, with convection firing in the Cascades (and some modeled over the lowlands too!) This whole vibe is very 2013/2015-like; two big thunderstorm years that featured a lot of subtle setups like this that were undermodeled and blew up into big surprise events because of excessive instability and moisture for our area. Between those two years I think there were around 15-20 warm core convective events, many of them quite large and moisture rich. Hopefully we stray far away from 2015's temperatures though. 1998 and 2013 are the perfect middle ground analogs I'd like to follow if we aren't going full on 1954 or 1993.

[Meatyorologist]

Tuesday has a good feeling to it. It's a strange setup too, with convection on the transition into a warmer stretch rather than the other way around like usual, as our ULL retreats to the south.

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Yeah, the next few weeks are going to be a volatile mesoscale soup, with negative tilting persisting over the area for an extended period of time and impulses riding around the ULL to our SW.

Wednesday looks like a really sneaky big thunderstorm setup over the Seattle area... look at those 500-750mb lapse rates and PWATs! Steering flow out of the SE, too, with convection firing in the Cascades (and some modeled over the lowlands too!) This whole vibe is very 2013/2015-like; two big thunderstorm years that featured a lot of subtle setups like this that were undermodeled and blew up into big surprise events because of excessive instability and moisture for our area. Between those two years I think there were around 15-20 warm core convective events, many of them quite large and moisture rich. Hopefully we stray far away from 2015's temperatures though. 1998 and 2013 are the perfect middle ground analogs I'd like to follow if we aren't going full on 1954 or 1993.

I like going back through Mark Nelsen's blog post during some of those summers. September 2013 looks amazing for a lot of the region. Really good stuff seems to have missed Portland but definitely still some good lightning! I know we had a storm in June 2020 and might've also had something in that September too but the last really good storm I remember was 2019.

[Meatyorologist]

18z GFS looks huge south of Olympia on Thursday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I like going back through Mark Nelsen's blog post during some of those summers. September 2013 looks amazing for a lot of the region. Really good stuff seems to have missed Portland but definitely still some good lightning! I know we had a storm in June 2020 and might've also had something in that September too but the last really good storm I remember was 2019.

It rained like 4" on 9/5/13 here. 

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

18z GFS looks huge south of Olympia on Thursday.

Euro shows some strong storms hitting Portland on Thursday too. Will the timing in the day be a limiting factor towards thunderstorm development?
 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Whoa...

[Meatyorologist]

This would be great for eastern OR.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Euro shows some strong storms hitting Portland on Thursday too. Will the timing in the day be a limiting factor towards thunderstorm development?
 

There’s definitely some elevated potential with the mid week surface-based stuff. Wednesday night could funtacular.

[Anti Marine Layer]

46 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

82 here and in NB.   72 at SEA.    

Trees have rapidly leafed out over the last 3 days in my area.   Would have taken weeks longer at the pace we were going.  

From no leaves to full leaves?

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Euro shows some strong storms hitting Portland on Thursday too. Will the timing in the day be a limiting factor towards thunderstorm development?
 

Looks pretty midlevel, I wouldn't worry about daytime heating stuff unless convective debris drifts into the area early.

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It rained like 4" on 9/5/13 here. 

I think there was 2-3" in an hour that day near Lebanon. One of the few kind of legit flash flooding setups I can remember in the Willamette Valley.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not a big beer guy myself. But I've heard a lot of people discussing BUD LIGHT lately?! They must have won some kind of award for great taste?

They went woke and lost lots of customers. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Leaf out progress for @TT-SEA

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Anti Marine Layer said:

They went woke and lost lots of customers. 

GENDER AFFIRMING CANSSSSSS!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

76.8˚F. High so far: 77.4˚F.

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

There’s definitely some elevated potential with the mid week surface-based stuff. Wednesday night could funtacular.

Traupical Tidbits skimps on the resolution, but the big picture here is pretty great for the PDX area. That nasty sfc inversion means some wild sounding thunder too.

[BLI snowman]

24 hour May precip records in jeopardy!

[BLI snowman]

Speaking of past convective events, today marks 20 years since a pretty great warm core thunderstorm outbreak in the Portland metro on the evening of 4/29/03. Had a quick downpour with some hail and then followed it up with 4-5 hours of frequent to near continuous lightning. Made an impression on me since it followed a completely disastrous winter and pretty much marked our first interesting weather in 6+ months.

Edited April 29, 2023 by BLI snowman

[SnarkyGoblin]

Came here to say it's beautiful today here in Fremont, Seattle.

I love the mornings for days like today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

DIdn't notice SLE hit 91 yesterday. Wasn't a daily record. Hit 93 back in 1926. 

We hit 82. We were running colder than last April until this week. Still going to end up below normal. Looks like SLE will end the month with around a -1.2 departure. 

[TT-SEA]

51 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

84F here and 88F in Lewiston almost at river level where we were earlier today.

Were you on the river with WSU kids celebrating the end of the school year? 

Apparently my son is there because he sent me pics.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, SnarkyGoblin said:

Brushing off the old hits. 

Stop playing Modern Warfare guys.

Wrong thread perhaps? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Were you on the river with WSU kids celebrating the end of the school year? 

Apparently my son is there because he sent me pics.  

I am sure that's a place any reasonable person and their family would avoid unless they want to be the victim of a DUI or sexual assault. 

Edited April 29, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[SilverFallsAndrew]

TOASTY

Edited April 29, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I am sure that's a place any reasonable person and their family would avoid unless they want to be the victim of a DUI or sexual assault. 

It was a joke... I am sure he wasn't with the college kids.    And remember you were in college once too.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It was a joke... I am sure he wasn't with the college kids.    And remember you were in college once too.   

I was in the library. Seriously though, I avoid crowds. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Phil might have been right about the warm May. I will look forward to the COOL summer. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

TOASTY

Not on the California coasty

[Doinko]

Ironwood, MI forecast

[Anti Marine Layer]

30 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

24 hour May precip records in jeopardy!

What is 6.45"?

[TT-SEA]

40 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Leaf out progress for @TT-SEA

Making good progress here...

[BLI snowman]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wrong thread perhaps? 

Rare foray out of the politics thread for him. His confusion was understandable.

[Eugene-5SW]

84º here and still on the way up, demolishing the forecast high of 75º.

Good to see the region hasn't lost its capacity for dramatic max temp over-performance. Gives me hope that we can continue the string of record blast-furnace summers!

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

What is 6.45"?

Pretty exceptional, I would say!

Downtown Portland has never cracked 2" in May before in 150 years. 

[NWbyNW]

Hit 72F at my place today!  Beautiful sunny day.  Washed my car before it got too hot. Looking forward to some clouds again though to maybe work in the yard tomorrow.  Forecasted to hit 76F but we didn't get close.

Hope everyone is having a nice Saturday! 

[NWbyNW]

Amazing the difference in weather around the region.  Take Bellingham today, which looks beautiful in the webcam.  It is 71F degrees there.  Now look at Westport, WA.  It is 52F and overcast.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Doing a little hike with the kids. The south falls day use area is packed but no one is on the Howard Creek Loop. About 200’ lower than our house but the vegetation isn’t as far along.