September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[snow_wizard]

Really impressive numbers across the state today.  Upper 30 to mid 40s as of noon east of the Cascades with some colder spots.  Seeing a lot of mid 40s to low 50s in the West.  Everywhere east of me is in the mid to upper 40s so the easterly breeze today will be of the chilly variety.  There could be some eye popping low temps in places the next two days.

[Deweydog]

White thanksgiving .

Correct.

[snow_wizard]

Sun angle has steadily risen here today. It’ll be interesting to see if that continues throughout the afternoon.

 

My guess is it will peak around 1 pm!

[TT-SEA]

Sun angle has steadily risen here today. It’ll be interesting to see if that continues throughout the afternoon.

 

My prediction is that the trend will completely reverse itself.   Time will tell.

[snow_wizard]

Correct.

 

Are you just being you or do you really think this?

[Jesse]

Are you just being you or do you really think this?

We’ll never know.

[stuffradio]

I can't believe how cold the 12Z GFS is...

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like it might rain here in a bit. Only 52 degrees with a cool north breeze.

[TT-SEA]

Are you just being you or do you really think this?

 

He is stating that he agrees with what was said about 2010.  

 

He would never make a definite prediction like that.    And of course its futile for anyone to make such a prediction.   But I have a feeling about snow in November this year.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down here it was 45F on Thanksgiving in 2010. Had no idea there was an event up north wow.

 

10-11 was actually a lame, business as usual cold season here. Must have been really north/south like 96-97 or 71-72.

 

As far as I know there hasn’t ever been a White Thanksgiving here and hasn’t been a White Christmas since 1990.

[Requiem]

I’m curious to see weather this winter will spread whatever it has among the entire region, or be exceedingly N/S (or selective, like 18-19). Any thoughts?

[TT-SEA]

Looks like it might rain here in a bit. Only 52 degrees with a cool north breeze.

Just virga.

[TacomaWaWx]

Down here it was 45F on Thanksgiving in 2010. Had no idea there was an event up north wow.

 

10-11 was actually a lame, business as usual cold season here. Must have been really north/south like 96-97 or 71-72.

 

As far as I know there hasn’t ever been a White Thanksgiving here and hasn’t been a White Christmas since 1990.

2010-2011 had snow in November and February. 4” along with some really cold hard hitting north winds in November. Then 7” of snow in late February while Seattle got nothing.

As far as white Christmases we had snow in 08 and 17. The only time I’ve seen snow on thanksgiving was 2010.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just virga.

Oh ok I thought it was going to be dry all day. I was suprised when I looked at the radar.

[Jesse]

Hey guys I'm curious if it will snow at my house this winter. Any thoughts?

[TT-SEA]

Oh ok I thought it was going to be dry all day. I was suprised when I looked at the radar.

Passed through here without a drop of rain and filtered sun at the time.

[Omegaraptor]

Really impressive numbers across the state today.  Upper 30 to mid 40s as of noon east of the Cascades with some colder spots.  Seeing a lot of mid 40s to low 50s in the West.  Everywhere east of me is in the mid to upper 40s so the easterly breeze today will be of the chilly variety.  There could be some eye popping low temps in places the next two days.

As I said earlier, Wenatchee is probably set to shatter its record for coldest September high. The record is 49°F and today could finish as low as 45°F.

 

Tri-Cities record is 51ºF in 1934 and 50ºF is forecast today.

 

Yakima record is 50ºF, today's forecast high is 48ºF.

[Front Ranger]

Are you just being you or do you really think this?

Does it even matter?

[TT-SEA]

Does it even matter?

Exactly.

[Jesse]

Does it even matter?

Great point. Exactly why I have never read any of your official long range forecasts.

[TacomaWaWx]

As I said earlier, Wenatchee is probably set to shatter its record for coldest September high. The record is 49°F and today could finish as low as 45°F.

 

Tri-Cities record is 51ºF in 1934 and 50ºF is forecast today.

Pretty impressive stuff east of the mountains. Could be one of the coolest September days on record here too.

[Front Ranger]

Down here it was 45F on Thanksgiving in 2010. Had no idea there was an event up north wow.

 

10-11 was actually a lame, business as usual cold season here. Must have been really north/south like 96-97 or 71-72.

 

As far as I know there hasn’t ever been a White Thanksgiving here and hasn’t been a White Christmas since 1990.

Feb 2011 was one of the coldest late season events on record for much of the PNW. Not as impressive down your way, though I think EUG still saw a 35/18 day or something like that near the end of the month.

[Front Ranger]

Great point. Exactly why I have never read any of your official long range forecasts.

Oh, you have.

[ShawniganLake]

The coldest station in all of Canada is currently in the mountains of SW Alberta. Colder than anywhere in the arctic.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Feb 2011 was one of the coldest late season events on record for much of the PNW. Not as impressive down your way, though I think EUG still saw a 35/18 day or something like that near the end of the month.

Yes a 36/19 day after the moisture had moved through. That’s what usually happens. Didn’t have any sub-freezing highs tho. Haven’t had one since Jan 2017.

[Jesse]

Oh, you have.

 

Nope, it's my 240 hour+ GFS. As Doc Brown said, no man should know too much about his own destiny.

[Omegaraptor]

Feb 2011 was one of the coldest late season events on record for much of the PNW. Not as impressive down your way, though I think EUG still saw a 35/18 day or something like that near the end of the month.

 

It was 33/18 at PDX and 34/18 at HIO on 2/26 that year.

 

2011 was actually an impressively chilly year, it's just not really remembered here because it wasn't too impressive in terms of lowland snow in Oregon. It was better in Seattle though. By most metrics it was the coldest since 1985, but by average high at PDX it was the coldest since the volcano-influenced 1964.

 

Excellent year for skiers and snowboarders however.

[Front Ranger]

Yes a 36/19 day after the moisture had moved through. That’s what usually happens. Didn’t have any sub-freezing highs tho. Haven’t had one since Jan 2017.

EUG's latest sub freezing high on record is 2/21. The two highs of 36 that 2011 managed were both records and very nearly set a new late season benchmark.

[Front Ranger]

Nope, it's my 240 hour+ GFS. As Doc Brown said, no man should know too much about his own destiny.

Great point.

[Requiem]

Hey guys I'm curious if it will snow at my house this winter. Any thoughts?

If you’re trying to poke fun at me for asking what I did earlier, it was a legitimate question.

[Jesse]

If you’re trying to poke fun at me for asking what I did earlier, it was a legitimate question.

 

I really don't think there is any sort of way to even begin to approach that question, aside from fairly meaningless speculation. Pinning down large scale patterns months out is difficult enough. Asking about meso-scale details for hypothetical events within said large scale pattern is pretty much just throwing darts with a blindfold on.

 

Someone might come up with a feel good answer for you, though. My money is on Frontal Snowsquall.

[Requiem]

I really don't think there is any sort of way to even begin to approach that question, aside from fairly meaningless speculation.

That’s entirely true. I thought Phil might have some sort of WAAAM or AAM or whatever lingo he’s into kind of explanation for it, but I suppose not.

[Jesse]

That’s entirely true. I thought Phil might have some sort of WAAAM or AAM or whatever lingo he’s into kind of explanation for it, but I suppose not.

 

See my edits. He is more into the large scale stuff, which those acronyms represent. Even he's not going to touch questions about meso-scale details months in advance.

[Deweydog]

Are you just being you or do you really think this?

Nope. Yep.

[Front Ranger]

Pretty much everyone is on board for some early season action this year (except maybe Phil?).

 

Good sign or bad?

[Deweydog]

Pretty much everyone is on board for some early season action this year (except maybe Phil?).

 

Good sign or bad?

Yes.

[Omegaraptor]

Pretty much everyone is on board for some early season action this year (except maybe Phil?).

 

Good sign or bad?

 

I don't know if there's much correlation, but it's certainly encouraging to see an arctic air pattern form. We haven't had a winter arctic blast since 2014 and maybe this year might just break the drought, especially with solar minimum and no Baffin vortex.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2011 was the last calendar year which ended up with a below average mean temp at SLE.

[MossMan]

Has only climbed to 53 degrees with a DP of 42. Partly cloudy.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like 53 might be it today IMBY.  It has dropped just a tad over the past half hour.  Really chilly for this time of year.