September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Front Ranger]

I had an exactly-freezing high of 32º on 3/5/19, while EUG made it up to 37º.

 

EUG was one degree cooler the next day at 36º while IMBY it was 34º.

 

Good times.

Yeah, between 2009, 2011, and 2019 (I might be forgetting another one), it's been a nice stretch for late season air masses.

[TT-SEA]

Oh ok I thought it was going to be dry all day. I was suprised when I looked at the radar.

Well... now its actually raining at SEA. Must be more lift as it heads west.

 

Probably dry here due to downsloping.

[snow_wizard]

Hey guys I'm curious if it will snow at my house this winter. Any thoughts?

 

Me bets yes.

[snow_wizard]

I don't know if there's much correlation, but it's certainly encouraging to see an arctic air pattern form. We haven't had a winter arctic blast since 2014 and maybe this year might just break the drought, especially with solar minimum and no Baffin vortex.

 

Are you sure?  We've had a number of Arctic outbreaks here since 2014.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty much everyone is on board for some early season action this year (except maybe Phil?).

 

Good sign or bad?

 

Given how deep this solar min we might manage to have something good mid winter also.  Normally real cold in Nov or the first half of December is bad for January, but who knows with this.

[snow_wizard]

The coldest station in all of Canada is currently in the mountains of SW Alberta. Colder than anywhere in the arctic.

 

In reality this current system is kind of an early season PV so it's not shocking.

[snow_wizard]

I’m curious to see weather this winter will spread whatever it has among the entire region, or be exceedingly N/S (or selective, like 18-19). Any thoughts?

 

In a broad sense I expect a major Arctic event.  Those are the most likely to give everybody some goodies, but it's never a guarantee for snow.

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like 53 might be it today IMBY. It has dropped just a tad over the past half hour. Really chilly for this time of year.

has been sitting at 52 most of the afternoon and cloudy.

[TacomaWaWx]

Well... now its actually raining at SEA. Must be more lift as it heads west.

 

Probably dry here due to downsloping.

Just breezy and cloudy here, looks like it’s going to miss Tacoma.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EUG up to 59F so we will be breaking 60F today.  Likely the warm spot in the western lowlands.

[Jesse]

PDX down to 50 as of 2pm, with light rain.

 

Slight possibility that the all time monthly MIN/MAX of 52 from 1948 could be in play today. But still a few hours to go.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Currently sitting at 50. 

 

You know Snow Wiz. January 1973 had a some cold weather during the first 10-12 days of the month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Also 2006 had very cold air at the end of October (16 at EUG), and a cold snap at the end of November. January 2007 was pretty decent. 

[Omegaraptor]

PDX down to 50 as of 2pm, with light rain.

Slight possibility that the all time monthly MIN/MAX of 52 from 1948 could be in play today. But still a few hours to go.

HIO is still at 49. Their record is 51 though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some impressive 2pm obs

 

Spokane 37

The Dalles 48

Ephrata 43

PDX 50

SLE 50

Medford 50

Burns 43

K Falls 43

[Blizzard777]

High of 54* back at home @ 11:35 am

Currently 52* and dropping (Fed Way)

 

49* se Pdx

[TT-SEA]

Still some showers over Seattle and moving west... its quite sunny out here and from Bellevue eastward.

[Deweydog]

Sunny.

[Gradient Keeper]

Last night would have been a great snowstorm setup for the Portland area between late November and early March. Ample moisture moving in overnight with gradients switching to flat or offshore in a cold airmass.

Yep. We would have had the arctic front draped right over us. Heck of a snow storm.

 

00z GFS in 5 hours 55 minutes

[BLI snowman]

PDX down to 50 as of 2pm, with light rain.

 

Slight possibility that the all time monthly MIN/MAX of 52 from 1948 could be in play today. But still a few hours to go.

 

Impressive day.

 

Of course in 1948-49 the cold just kept going without interruption until February 20.

[TacomaWaWx]

Temp has been going between 51 and 52 the last few hours. Cooler than I was expecting. 52/47 might end up being the final min/max. Would best the current record high at my house by 3 degrees for the high. Hopefully we can get some clearing the next 2 nights.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Yes although a little concerned about the frost bite potential. Once it drops below 65F you can start losing entire limbs.

 

People from around the country always make fun of Southern Californians and how 65 degrees is cold for some of them.

[Omegaraptor]

People from around the country always make fun of Southern Californians and how 65 degrees is cold for some of them.

To be fair, western PNWers aren’t much better. People here seem to think anything under 55°F is cold.

[Gradient Keeper]

We might have our baby in the next day or 2. We can tell her stories about being born during the arctic blast of September 2019

Congratulations!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 49. So a 50/35 day so far. If it holds up and doesn't drop below 35 by midnight it will be a -14 departure. 

[TT-SEA]

To be fair, western PNWers aren’t much better. People here seem to think anything under 55°F is cold.

To be fair... rain with temps in the 40s and low 50s is cold and raw and generally miserable to be in for very long.

 

Sunny and 25 feels better.

[Jesse]

To be fair, western PNWers aren’t much better. People here seem to think anything under 55°F is cold.

Usually transplants.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I will say. Given until the past few days only a couple nights had fallen below 50, these days do feel pretty chilly!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Made it to 60F at some stations, we'll see if we get any warmer.  Probly a -7F departure on the day or so. I doubt it'll be good enough for us to see a below avg Sept tho.

[MossMan]

Had a shower. Temp down to 52.

[MossMan]

Chilly day! Non transplant!

[GHweatherChris]

Not moist today.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EUG dropped to 56F so they never made it to 60F if it holds. Also shifted from SW to N winds.

[Deweydog]

Nice day!

[Phil]

[Phil]

Pretty much everyone is on board for some early season action this year (except maybe Phil?).

 

Good sign or bad?

It’s a tough call, but I’m leaning towards midwinter for a cold pattern this year. If I’m right (big if, haha) there’s a decent chance the early part of winter could be fairly ridgy with a quick flip to very cold in January.

 

But again..low confidence for now.

[Omegaraptor]

To be fair... rain with temps in the 40s and low 50s is cold and raw and generally miserable to be in for very long.

 

Sunny and 25 feels better.

 

I don't buy the "dry cold vs wet cold" for one second. There is no conceivable way to me that 50 can feel colder than 25.

 

Winters here are actually so mild, especially for being at 45.5ºN latitude. Just a single jacket (not even a heavy one) is enough to be adequately dressed for the weather most days. Can't say that about skiing in a dry 25ºF.

[TT-SEA]

I don't buy the "dry cold vs wet cold" for one second. There is no conceivable way to me that 50 can feel colder than 25.

 

Winters here are actually so mild, especially for being at 45.5ºN latitude. Just a single jacket (not even a heavy one) is enough to be adequately dressed for the weather most days. Can't say that about skiing in a dry 25ºF.

Being wet makes you feel colder... its just a reality.

[TacomaWaWx]

Gfs still looking roughly the same as the last run except the colder system next weekend was delayed slightly. We will wait and see on that.

[Timmy]

A friend posted a picture of his deck near CDL and it looks like he got about 10” of snow there.