October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Frontal Snowsquall]

F8363410-381C-421C-8125-F541CDA01A1F.png

 

November Arctic Blast incoming?

Better to save it for December.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Better to save it for December.

 

Or January. Been ages since a good January cold snap. I remember when January was considered to be the favored month for such things.

[wx_statman]

Exactly, this one is good to think about too. Ever read the book "Flatlanders"?

No, never read that...

[Omegaraptor]

Better to save it for December.

Yeah I hope the hammer doesn’t drop too early. Save the cold and snow for December.

[Phil]

This has always been a pet theory of mine.

Yeah, the universe seems to love balance and cyclicality.

 

Spheres, rotation, galaxies, like charges repel/opposite charges attract, the cycle of life, action/reaction, light/dark, yin/yang, etc.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Or January. Been ages since a good January cold snap. I remember when January was considered to be the favored month for such things.

Yeah, if I could choose, I'd rather have January be the month where it's cold and snowy.

[snow_wizard]

The ensemble mean for the cold trough next week continues to get colder.  The 850mb temp mean is now -3 for Seattle.  Should be some nippy min temps this weekend also.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Yeah I hope the hammer doesn’t drop too early. Save the cold and snow for December.

If we can get an Arctic Blast a few days before December then that would be okay. Thanksgiving is on November 28 this year but that's the earliest I would be okay with.

[MossMan]

I would be cool with a November 1985, 96, 2006, 2010 (I think it was) just to name a few.

[Deweydog]

[GHweatherChris]

November 20th

[snow_wizard]

I would be cool with a November 1985, 96, 2006, 2010 (I think it was) just to name a few.

 

Not to mention ones like 1896 and 1955.  I wish we had more data available on 1896.  It was pretty spectacular in Downtown Seattle so one can only imagine what the outlying areas might have been like.

[snow_wizard]

If we can get an Arctic Blast a few days before December then that would be okay. Thanksgiving is on November 28 this year but that's the earliest I would be okay with.

 

Anyone on here would have been fine with 1985, at least in the Seattle area.  In spite of being November it remains the best month I have seen here.  Some places had 12 consecutive max temps of freezing or below and pretty much everywhere had 10 out of 12.  Two major snowstorms in there and snow on the ground for two straight weeks.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah I hope the hammer doesn’t drop too early. Save the cold and snow for December.

 

Cold in October with no El Nino gives me good hope for December / January.

[MossMan]

.14” on the day so far. Currently 49.

[TT-SEA]

November 20th

Sounds about right.

[wx_statman]

Not to mention ones like 1896 and 1955.  I wish we had more data available on 1896.  It was pretty spectacular in Downtown Seattle so one can only imagine what the outlying areas might have been like.

 

15" depth and -5F minimum in Grand Mound. They averaged 34.6 on the month. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Anyone on here would have been fine with 1985, at least in the Seattle area. In spite of being November it remains the best month I have seen here. Some places had 12 consecutive max temps of freezing or below and pretty much everywhere had 10 out of 12. Two major snowstorms in there and snow on the ground for two straight weeks.

1985-86 was great regionally.

[Deweydog]

It’s October 4th.

[TacomaWaWx]

Besides the rain early in the week, gfs is pretty dry through day 10.

[Anti Marine Layer]

It’s October 4th.

Happy 4th. No fireworks tonight.

[Phil]

Cold in October with no El Nino gives me good hope for December / January.

I dunno man, there’s a healthy downwelling OKW present now, which was triggered by the ongoing +IOD/MC subsidence regime in the tropics.

 

[ShawniganLake]

I dunno man, there’s a healthy downwelling OKW present now, which was triggered by the ongoing +IOD/MC subsidence regime in the tropics.

 

Can we nuke that red blob. Would that help? Bring up some cooler subsurface water?

[MossMan]

I dunno man, there’s a healthy downwelling OKW present now, which was triggered by the ongoing +IOD/MC subsidence regime in the tropics.

 

Well at least we will always have the great September Arctic Blast to look fondly back at.

 

This winter is over, folks.

[MossMan]

Good night for a fire.

[Gradient Keeper]

That's just great. I just put away my snow shovel. Oh well. How many days until Winter 2020 starts? 444 days. That's right. We have 444 days to try to heal from the butt hurt that was the great Winter Cancel of 2019-2020.

 

00z ECMWF in 44 minutes

[umadbro]

I dunno man, there’s a healthy downwelling OKW present now, which was triggered by the ongoing +IOD/MC subsidence regime in the tropics.

 

Phil says I'm to dumb to understand the acronymns. So, I'm going to assume this means good things because Phil predicts an epic winter every year.

[MossMan]

Phil says I'm to dumb to understand the acronymns. So, I'm going to assume this means good things because Phil predicts an epic winter every year.

Phil says red is bad. No snow for us.

[GHweatherChris]

Glaam

[GHweatherChris]

Sounds about right.

For you, for sure, but I have good feeling our best chance for lowland big snow occurs around then through 12/1 for the whole winter.

[snow_wizard]

15" depth and -5F minimum in Grand Mound. They averaged 34.6 on the month. 

 

Wowzers!

[snow_wizard]

I still think Phil is going out on a huge limb for ENSO this winter.  It would be unprecedented in the modern era to have a Nino this winter given the context.  Even if something does emerge it's going to a bit down the road as there is still cold subsurface water to work its way through the system.  We'll be fine.

[snow_wizard]

Liking the looks of the ECMWF for week two much more than the GFS right now.  No sign of a GOA low at least through day 10.

[snow_wizard]

Meanwhile the solar x-ray flux has dropped even lower over the past few day indicating the sun is going into an even deeper sleep.  This is another reason I'm highly skeptical about any significant warm ENSO even this winter.  We almost never get El Nino this deep into a solar minimum with the numbers still dropping.  Back to back warm ENSO years in a deep solar min like this would be unheard of at least in the last century.  From a statistical viewpoint a Nino is exceedingly unlikely this winter, but who knows for sure I guess.

[Guest daniel1]

I still think Phil is going out on a huge limb for ENSO this winter. It would be unprecedented in the modern era to have a Nino this winter given the context. Even if something does emerge it's going to a bit down the road as there is still cold subsurface water to work its way through the system. We'll be fine.

Look at you panicking lol.

[TacomaWaWx]

Low of 48 this morning, currently 50 and cloudy no rainfall overnight.

[TacomaWaWx]

Gfs euro and EPS all don’t look too exciting days 5-10. Have all converged on the trough early next week but after that remains to be seen.

[Phil]

I still think Phil is going out on a huge limb for ENSO this winter. It would be unprecedented in the modern era to have a Nino this winter given the context. Even if something does emerge it's going to a bit down the road as there is still cold subsurface water to work its way through the system. We'll be fine.

I think you’ll be fine irrespective of whether this ends up as a weak niño or warm neutral. You did great last year with an El Niño (in February, nonetheless..talk about a climo-buster).

 

ENSO alone (especially weak ENSO) won’t make or break your winter. But an over-strong/stacked PV (hence a warm/shallow tropical tropopause and weak MJO) definitely could, if it were to happen.

[ShawniganLake]

Drizzly this morning

[Guest CulverJosh]

I think a neutral winter is pretty much a foregone conclusion at this point ie; 75% chance or greater.