October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Requiem]

It has a lot more to do with a mental health crisis now than anything. Things are so easy we're becoming bored, depressed and melancholy.

 

Yeah. I think it's that and the fact that we are starting to recognize and actually respond to mental illness much more these days. Versus the old days when people either blamed mental illness on an entirely different thing, or ignored it and had people holed up in horrific asylums hoping for the best. It's a lot more apparent that people do have problems in the advent of such compassion.

[Omegaraptor]

And 12z is not when daily low temps are set.

Yeah 12z is 4 AM PT. The temps bottom out at 6-7 AM PT

[TT-SEA]

Yeah 12z is 4 AM PT. The temps bottom out at 6-7 AM PT

12Z is 5 a.m. PDT right now.

[Omegaraptor]

12Z is 5 a.m. PDT right now.

I thought 12z was always 4 AM. Thank you for the correction.

[Requiem]

Oh boy, looking real chilly. Color me excited!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I thought 12z was always 4 AM. Thank you for the correction.

 

Zulu, or "Universal," or "Greenwich" time (all mean the same thing) never observes DST, so the difference between it and time zones that do varies.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Should get close to our first frost if this verifies.

[GHweatherChris]

Already had 2 frosts here, old news.

[Gradient Keeper]

Universal Zulu Time = PDT/PST conversion

LOCAL --  PDT -- PST  

Midnight = 07z - 08z

1 a.m. = 08z - 09z  

2 a.m. = 09z - 10z

3 a.m. = 10z - 11z

4 a.m. = 11z - 12z

5 a.m. = 12z - 13z

6 a.m. = 13z - 14z

7 a.m. = 14z - 15z

8 a.m. = 15z - 16z

9 a.m. = 16z - 17z

10 a.m. = 17z - 18z

11 a.m. = 18z - 19z

Noon = 19z - 20z

1 p.m. = 20z - 21z

2 p.m. = 21z - 22z

3 p.m. = 22z - 23z

4 p.m. = 23z - 00z

5 p.m. = 00z - 01z

6 p.m. = 01z - 02z

7 p.m. = 02z - 03z

8 p.m. = 03z - 04z

9 p.m. = 04z - 05z

10 p.m. = 05z - 06z

11 p.m. = 06z - 07z

 

LEGEND: 

PDT = Pacific Daylight Savings Time

PST = Pacific Standard Time

[snow_wizard]

I am ready for it, I installed a coolant heater and blocked the lower grill on the VW TDI Sportwagen I picked up back in late April, so bring on the cold temps!!  I really hope we can have some "proper" cold this winter!

 

This thing has become much more favorable for Bellingham over the past few runs.  A lot more of a classic Fraser outflow situation with almost no easterly pressure gradient.  Much better for me too.

[Jesse]

Some great looking model runs this evening.

 

Already down to 49 after a high of 65 here.

[snow_wizard]

Already had 2 frosts here, old news.

 

These will be bonafide iron frosts coming up.

[snow_wizard]

Some great looking model runs this evening.

 

Already down to 49 after a high of 65 here.

 

This thing is looking crazy for this early.  It will kind of fit between the 1985 and 1949 events.  Both of those led to epic cold months.

[snow_wizard]

Some great looking model runs this evening.

 

Already down to 49 after a high of 65 here.

 

I have finally dropped lower than your area.  Currently 46 after a high of 63.

[Jesse]

This thing is looking crazy for this early. It will kind of fit between the 1985 and 1949 events. Both of those led to epic cold months.

The rapid last minute improvement over the last 24 hours kind of snuck up on me. I thought we were in for a pretty chilly, clipperesque trough, but suddenly it’s looking quite impressive.

[Jesse]

Some nice fall color in the Laurelhurst area of Portland earlier this evening.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

The rapid last minute improvement over the last 24 hours kind of snuck up on me. I thought we were in for a pretty chilly, clipperesque trough, but suddenly it’s looking quite impressive.

 

The other big news is the more favorable evolution leads to above normal heights lasting long over the GOA than previous runs.  Not surprised to see that.

[snow_wizard]

Some nice fall color in the Laurelhurst area of Portland earlier this evening.

 

3D7C8F7B-A086-4656-A628-7F9FE7F3A2C2.jpeg

 

F4FAA7CB-B40F-4D99-A6C6-425D42E22D35.jpeg

 

That cold shot last weekend has really paid off I see!

[snow_wizard]

That is one serious cold front folks!

 

[Deweydog]

That’s some very warm water building in the WPAC portion of the IPWP. Given the W/1 setup now ahead of the falling SAM and the downwelling OKW, I think the stage is set for an apocalyptic Pacific MJO wave and huge -EPO before Thanksgiving, should all pieces align.

 

Could be a truly frigid start to winter across much of the USA this year, right out of the gate. Thanksgiving onwards might as well be January, barring an unforeseen fail from one of the communicative teleconnectors.

Duh.

[Omegaraptor]

That is one serious cold front folks!

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

Betting on blue.

[Front Ranger]

I'll interrupt the Two Minutes' Hate against the lumpenproletariat to point out that poor life decisions have been with humanity since just about always, yet there have not always been so many homeless in the city I sometimes sarcastically refer to as Kolkata-on-the-Sound.

 

Which is not a surprise, really, when one realizes how Seattle and other major cities have been adding people and jobs faster than they have been adding housing, and what virtually every economist will tell you will happens to prices when demand outpaces supply. It's a game of musical chairs in which those with the least always lose.

 

And the underclass has approximately the *least* influence on land-use planning of any group I can think of.

Lack of housing is absolutely NOT one of the main contributors to homelessness.

[Jesse]

Duh.

 

Billie Eilish?

[Deweydog]

Billie Eilish?

Bad English?

[Front Ranger]

Some nice fall color in the Laurelhurst area of Portland earlier this evening.

 

3D7C8F7B-A086-4656-A628-7F9FE7F3A2C2.jpeg

 

F4FAA7CB-B40F-4D99-A6C6-425D42E22D35.jpeg

WTH is going on with those people in the second pic?

[Jesse]

WTH is going on with those people in the second pic?

They appear to be walking.

[Deweydog]

They appear to be walking.

Crazy.

 

On a sidewalk of all places.

[Gradient Keeper]

Colder runs ahead?

 

6z GFS in 1 hour 43 minutes

[Deweydog]

Colder runs ahead?

 

6z GFS in 1 hour 43 minutes

I sure hope so. Otherwise snow this winter is gonna be hard to come by.

[Gradient Keeper]

I sure hope so. Otherwise snow this winter is gonna be hard to come by.

Valid point.

 

12z GEM in 8 hours 4 minutes

[Front Ranger]

Crazy.

 

On a sidewalk of all places.

Looks like a bunch of meth zombies to me.

 

Typical Portland.

[Deweydog]

Looks like a bunch of meth zombies to me.

 

Typical Portland.

Especially the 10 year old.

[ShawniganLake]

Especially the 10 year old.

They’re lucky I’m not there. I’d roll down my window and give them a piece of my mind.

[Jbolin]

They’re lucky I’m not there. I’d roll down my window and give them a piece of my mind.

What exactly would you say? 

 

Stop being all "Homo erectus" and walking like a human and btw, get off THEIR lawn?

[Tyler Mode]

37 so far this morning.  Near 70 this afternoon...this is why I love October!

[Jesse]

Was down as low as 41 earlier, then dense fog formed. Up to 44 now.

 

First really dense fog morning of the season here.

[Chewbacca Defense]

This thing has become much more favorable for Bellingham over the past few runs.  A lot more of a classic Fraser outflow situation with almost no easterly pressure gradient.  Much better for me too.

 

Awesome!  I haven't really looked at the models the last few days between work and turning wrenches but I just checked Wunderground and it is showing low 30's middle of this week, and it seems like lately it has been too warm with its low temps. 

 

 

 

I have a timer arriving on Monday for the heater, and it sounds like I better get the garage cleaned up today so we can get my wife's SUV in there.

[TacomaWaWx]

43 degrees currently right at sunrise. Story of October could definitely be cold nights considering how the forecast models look for mid week. Pretty impressive shot of cold air that already was impressive but then the forecast models stepped it up even more. Should be interesting to watch could break my all time low of 34 for the month of October set 10/31/06.

[TacomaWaWx]

No fog here in north Tacoma this morning. Looks like there’s some down towards Olympia however.

[El_Nina]

37 here this morning as well. And sunny.