snow_wizard Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Here we go! C'MON!!!! COLDER RUNS AHEAD All minus! Sure cold when that happens. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Nice ensemble improvement. 00z ECMWF in 21 minutes I'll say! This is insane!!!! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 692FDCBB-B2D2-4C0A-A20F-AB101CE28197.png Blah... That image doesn't show the entire run. It's actually good. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Your clipper will cause extreme fire danger in Northern California. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 The WRF is way colder for Tuesday than previous runs. It shows impressively cold easterly outflow winds. Temps only in the low 40s for Portland in the afternoon. This is based on the GFS which is a notch warmer than the GEM and ECMWF. Models are unanimous that easterly gradients will give out fairly quickly once the cold air is in place. Could be some crazy mins as next week progresses. Definitely a shot at some teens in the coldest areas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 00z WRF Big changes. MUCH colder air into the Columbia Basin, Gorge with COLD, gusty east winds. We better adjust that 7 Day Forecast . 8 AM Tuesday. Brrrrrrr! This is late October and these maps scream December! WOW! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Your clipper will cause extreme fire danger in Northern California. Move north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Your clipper will cause extreme fire danger in Northern California. I've been noticing the inane northerly gradients being shown down there. Probably downright dangerous given how insanely low the dew points will be. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 00z WRF Big changes. MUCH colder air into the Columbia Basin, Gorge with COLD, gusty east winds. We better adjust that 7 Day Forecast . 8 AM Tuesday. Brrrrrrr! This is late October and these maps scream December! WOW! This looks potentially historic. I'm speechless. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 The GEM isn't backing down at all with the reload of cold air. Whoever isn't excited about what is going on here doesn't have a pulse. We are in a truly exceptional regime right now.I’m interested. I’d be excited if it was happening about 3 weeks from now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 I’m interested. I’d be excited if it was happening about 3 weeks from now.A parent of a very young child really should have a pulse. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 00z GEFS check out that 500mb pattern. This is close to being REALLY COLD and a REAL early taste of Winter in November. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 26, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Would be interesting to have cool spells two Novembers in a row (I set a few records in 2018). Though my first measurable snow was literally in the last hour of the month. We'll see if this one is different. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Night shift Rob? 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 00z ECMWF Day 3 - A few notches further west trying to trend even colder. Tonight's 00z Last night's run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Night shift Rob?If I didn't have to get up at 5:30 AM for fishing, I would definitely. I do think some night shifts may be reasonable near/after Halloween! C'MON!!!! 6z GFS in 3 hours 15 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Day 4 yep a bit colder Gorge/east 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Even more glaring differences at Day 4 Tonight's run Last night's run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 A parent of a very young child really should have a pulse.I think our 2 year old will be excited when she sees snow this winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 00z CMCE impressive backdoor cold into the Columbia Basin! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 I think our 2 year old will be excited when she sees snow this fall.Ficksed. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 OMG! The ECMWF is a fair bit colder on the 850s than previous runs. Bow to the GEM on this one. This cold intrusion on Tesday is looking pretty serious for this early. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 OMG! The ECMWF is a fair bit colder on the 850s than previous runs. Bow to the GEM on this one. This cold intrusion on Tesday is looking pretty serious for this early.Last minute model trend to colder it looks like to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Holy crap! The ECMWF is much weaker with easterly gradient here on Tuesday than previous runs as well. Might be a chance of decoupling here Tuesday night when the really cold air is in place. A truly remarkable thing with this run is everything is colder over the next 5 days at least. Wow! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Last minute model trend to colder it looks like to me. If the colder trend continues this might approach Oct 1935 territory. That's pretty lofty but this looks pretty amazing. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Holy crap! The ECMWF is much weaker with easterly gradient here on Tuesday than previous runs as well. Might be a chance of decoupling here Tuesday night when the really cold air is in place. A truly remarkable thing with this run is everything is colder over the next 5 days at least. Wow!I’m excited About the cold now if we only had moisture at the perfect time we could get oct snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 It appears I may end up with only 3 above normal days this month IMBY, and they were only small plusses. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Halloween blizzard in the upper Midwest... almost all of this falls on Halloween day and evening. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 I’m excited About the cold now if we only had moisture at the perfect time we could get oct snow This is really something. To get three major cold snaps during different parts of the month in October is pretty much unheard of. Looking like a good shot at a significant cold snap as we get toward the second week of Nov as well. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Halloween blizzard in the upper Midwest... almost all of this falls on Halloween day and evening. That's awesome! 12z ECMWF in 11 hours 3 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Nice to see the conversation zone is back in action! Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Down to 38 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Excellent 06z run for regarding the next couple days. Really cold 850s and father west. Currently 38 out here this morning. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Looks to become quite frosty by Thursday in Portland. I guess earlier in the week may be too dry for frost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Excellent 06z run for regarding the next couple days. Really cold 850s and father west. Currently 38 out here this morning.I think we are really only talking about Tuesday on this side of the mountains. That is the day when the cold 850mb temps swing through. 06Z run... Monday: Tuesday: Wednesday: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 I think we are really only talking about Tuesday on this side of the mountains. That is the day when the cold 850mb temps swing through. 06Z run... Monday: Tuesday: Wednesday: I just meant it was good for cold mornings and looked colder overall this side of the mountains. I Should have been more specific. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Interestingly... the 06Z run is basically dry for the next 16 days. That goes out through November 11th. That is pretty crazy for this time of year. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Today is the 5th morning we have had in the 30s this month with the remaining 5 mornings also likely to be in the 30s. The previous record for number of mornings in the 30s here before this cold snap was 3. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 I just meant it was good for cold mornings and looked colder overall this side of the mountains. I Should have been more specific. Definite shift west though. But I was surprised yesterday when I looked at today through Monday... the air mass is not really as cold as I thought behind the clipper system yesterday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Definite shift west though. I was surprised yesterday when I looked at today through Monday... the air mass is not really as cold as I thought behind the clipper system yesterday. Yeah it’s not terribly cold out there in most spots in the mid 30s to low 40s. Looks like the next few nights are supposed to be slightly colder but not by much. Probably will end up seeing our coldest mornings early next week. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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