October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[BLI snowman]

My only beef with that winter is we never got a really long period of strong blocking and sustained deep cold.  Certainly very decent, but I would take ones like 1928-29, 1936-37, and 1949-50 over that.

 

Late January to mid February 1956 was pretty excellent here. There was a significant snowstorm in SW WA and NW OR on 1/26 and then two weeks of clear, cold weather that followed. With the mid February arctic blast following right afterwards.

[BLI snowman]

Nice shot of cold air into the Northern Rockies toward the end of the month.

 

Would be some freakishly cold monthly departures there if current modeling trends hold.

[ShawniganLake]

Very possible. I'm sure January 1950 is right up there also. Amazing both of those were preceded by abnormal cold snaps in October.

I believe it was second. It was obviously colder but January is susceptible to higher temperature deviations. January 1875 was probably close as well. Using the New Westminster station, both January 1950 and 1875 averaged 21.4F

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Late January to mid February 1956 was pretty excellent here. There was a significant snowstorm in SW WA and NW OR on 1/26 and then two weeks of clear, cold weather that followed. With the mid February arctic blast following right afterwards.

 

Silver Falls had two lows of 6 during February 1956. On the 1st and later in the month with the mid-month blast. In fact the low of 6 on 2/16/56 is the latest Silver Falls has seen a temp that low in their period of record. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Be interesting to know which month in Oregon was the coldest from the norm... Would have to think November 1985 is a candidate. Maybe January 1930 or 1949 too...Some of the numbers I have seen for Central Oregon from January 1930 are hard to fathom. 

[snow_wizard]

I believe it was second. It was obviously colder but January is susceptible to higher temperature deviations. January 1875 was probably close as well. Using the New Westminster station, both January 1950 and 1875 averaged 21.4F

 

That's interesting when you consider Clearbrook averaged 17.2.  Fraser River power!

 

21.4 is still ridiculous though.

[jcmcgaffey]

If we extrapolate February to October that means our next major cold spell will be May/June timeframe....

[snow_wizard]

Be interesting to know which month in Oregon was the coldest from the norm... Would have to think November 1985 is a candidate. Maybe January 1930 or 1949 too...Some of the numbers I have seen for Central Oregon from January 1930 are hard to fathom. 

 

For Seattle it was Jan 1950 without any question.  The coldest month of the 20th century by far.  Jan 1862 was probably the coldest for everywhere in the NW.

[snow_wizard]

If we extrapolate February to October that means our next major cold spell will be May/June timeframe....

 

That really doesn't work because the warm season is basically not capable of delivering the kind of pattern we just saw.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For Seattle it was Jan 1950 without any question.  The coldest month of the 20th century by far.  Jan 1862 was probably the coldest for everywhere in the NW.

 

January 1950 was a great month in Oregon, but in most places January 1949 was colder. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Super comfortable outside. 41F.

[Gradient Keeper]

For Seattle it was Jan 1950 without any question.  The coldest month of the 20th century by far.  Jan 1862 was probably the coldest for everywhere in the NW.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but 1862 didn't that occur due to extreme jet suppression down into central/southern California rather than typical strong GoA blocking? I might be wrong though.

 

6z GFS in 3 hours 19 minutes

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but 1862 didn't that occur due to extreme jet suppression down into central/southern California rather than typical strong GoA blocking? I might be wrong though.

 

6z GFS in 3 hours 19 minutes

Would love to see maps of what those late 1800s patterns looked like.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks active!

 

[Deweydog]

Looks active!

 

F534F3B2-990A-40FB-AEC9-A0803DE972AD.png

The associated winds will keep low temperatures up.

[GHweatherChris]

11/20 is now our best chance.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Night shift musings, Jim?

[snow_wizard]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but 1862 didn't that occur due to extreme jet suppression down into central/southern California rather than typical strong GoA blocking? I might be wrong though.

 

6z GFS in 3 hours 19 minutes

 

It was probably an extreme block with a major AR undercutting the block.  The AR that hit CA that winter is one of the most extreme weather events to ever strike the United States.  The flooding was epic, but of course we had some of that before the cold took over.  That winter was an incredible anomaly in a number of ways.  That's what makes the claims of the climate change freaks so outrageous.  They go nuts over anything out of the normal these days, but there were far crazier anomalies in the 1800s and the 1930s.

[snow_wizard]

Night shift musings, Jim?

 

I say be ready for at least one major cold event this winter.

[snow_wizard]

I'm very pleased we have managed to avoid the wind tonight.  It tried to break through a couple of hours ago, but has apparently failed.  Currently 37.

[snow_wizard]

Looks active!

 

F534F3B2-990A-40FB-AEC9-A0803DE972AD.png

 

I'm going to be interested to see how the offshore ridging plays out once that system moves through.  Tonight's GFS looked interesting.

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm very pleased we have managed to avoid the wind tonight.  It tried to break through a couple of hours ago, but has apparently failed.  Currently 37.

It is VERY wind at my house with loud, roaring gusts near West Gresham. We simply do not see east wind events before Halloween. This is crazy.

[TT-SEA]

48 here this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very warm morning at PDX! Made it to 32 here for the 5th time this month.

[The Swamp]

So much for epic lows. Didn’t even freeze.

[umadbro]

So much for epic lows. Didn’t even freeze.

Crazy what that wind can do. If it was anytime after mid November we would be seeing lows in the mid to upper 30's in the warm areas. But I'm sure you knew this.

[Jesse]

Low of 46 here even with wind much of the night, DP down to 24. Looks like pretty much everywhere out of the wind saw another frost or freeze. Pretty impressive.

 

I’m guessing a lot of places that had wind overnight will see their lows for the day this evening, as gradients slacken.

[TacomaWaWx]

So much for epic lows. Didn’t even freeze.

yeah, not like yesterday morning wasn’t record setting or anything... pretty lame stuff.

[TacomaWaWx]

One thing about my house is it is not wind sheltered. Still hit 40 last night but light N winds kept it from getting too cold.

Dropped to 39 just now as the sun rises, 4th morning in the 30s this month.

[Front Ranger]

Silver Falls had two lows of 6 during February 1956. On the 1st and later in the month with the mid-month blast. In fact the low of 6 on 2/16/56 is the latest Silver Falls has seen a temp that low in their period of record. 

 

OLM has actually seen two events well after the 1956 blast that were colder. They hit 10 in 1956, and 5 on 2/25/11 and also 9 on 3/3/89.

 

Speaking of OLM, I mentioned going into the cold snap they had a good shot for at least two record lows through this morning. The two lows of 26 beat records from 1985 and 1972 the past couple mornings, and today they have at least tied the record of 28 from 2009.

 

All three of those years had major Arctic air by mid December............

[MossMan]

Currently 35.

[Anti Marine Layer]

October averages warmer than May down here even with the days over 2 hours shorter. That has been the case so far this month, but is not the case for the PNW.

[TacomaWaWx]

Over the last 14 years I’ve kept records, the earliest there’s even been a low in the 30s was 10/11, Never earlier than that.This year we’ve had 4 lows in the 30s and a freeze by 10/11.

[ShawniganLake]

32 this morning

[MossMan]

A Facebook memory popped up for this day back in 2009. Was apparently a little chilly at my moms old place right on Moses Lake, here was my post 10yrs ago...

 

Nice here in Moses Lake but COLD! Was 17 degrees this morning! Many people have not turned off their irrigation yet in the area i noticed driving around, entire yards including trees incased in a ton of ice from water running last night!

[TacomaWaWx]

Gfs looks like it stays dry and nice through early next week still before rain arrives Tuesday. Shows 1-1.5” over the week for the lowlands and 2-3” in the cascades with much higher amounts north of the border.

Should be some snow in the higher terrain in the cascades.

[Blizzard777]

Puget Sound doing her thing keeping folks on the water in the low 40s (north winds a factor of course) 

meanwhile just 2 miles in at my place it’s 32.5* 

no wind registered overnight 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

OLM has actually seen two events well after the 1956 blast that were colder. They hit 10 in 1956, and 5 on 2/25/11 and also 9 on 3/3/89.

 

Speaking of OLM, I mentioned going into the cold snap they had a good shot for at least two record lows through this morning. The two lows of 26 beat records from 1985 and 1972 the past couple mornings, and today they have at least tied the record of 28 from 2009.

 

All three of those years had major Arctic air by mid December............

 

The big late February cold blast down here was 1962. Back to back single digit lows on 2/26-27/62. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Brookings effect in full swing tonight. Currently 70 on the beach on the S. Oregon coast. Meanwhile down into the mid-20s already on the high desert.

Extreme!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lows this morning

 

SLE 32

EUG 30

Corvallis 27

 

PDX - 50