October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Front Ranger]

Let's be real - most people spend the vast majority of their lives indoors. We're all wusses and weather is not a major factor in how we spend our time.

[Timmy Supercell]

Let's be real - most people spend the vast majority of their lives indoors. We're all wusses and weather is not a major factor in how we spend our time.

 

We also sleep for a third of our lives. Like what do humans even do. 

[TT-SEA]

Gonna have outside patio seating I hope!

 

 

Never get a table outside when its raining and windy and cold... always packed.   Nobody wants to be inside when there is sideways rain.   You should know this.   

[TT-SEA]

Let's be real - most people spend the vast majority of their lives indoors. We're all wusses and weather is not a major factor in how we spend our time.

 

 

I disagree.     It seems like everyone is outside around here when its nice.    

[Deweydog]

Euro!

 

Let’s see if it can get people that much more worked up over each other.

[Gradient Keeper]

Euro!

 

Let’s see if it can get people that much more worked up over each other.

If tonight's EURO is similar to the GEM I'm gonna piss my pants.

 

6z GFS in 3 hours 31 minutes

[TacomaWaWx]

0.36” of rain today, 0.88” since Wednesday morning and 1.11” for the month of October.

[Jesse]

Euro!

Let’s see if it can get people that much more worked up over each other.

Today has been a great assist for some hard core above the frayness.

[Deweydog]

If tonight's EURO is similar to the GEM I'm gonna piss my pants.

 

6z GFS in 3 hours 31 minutes

Sounds moist!

 

We learned today that some like to play outside like that, others not so much.

[Timmy Supercell]

After doing some numbers I was surprised to see the first half of October 2017 actually a smidgen cooler than this one, and 2013 had a very similar Mean as well.

 

(October first-15-days Mean)

 

2019: 44.0 (-6.0)

2018: 47.6 (-2.4)

2017: 43.3 (-6.7)*

2016: 47.0 (-3.0)

2015: 56.5 (+6.5)

2014: 53.5 (+3.5)

2013: 43.4 (-6.6)

2012: 53.5 (+3.5)

2011: 47.8 (-2.2)

2010: 54.1 (+4.1)

 

I know grabbing a 2 week period is a smaller group of data but it shows how wildly October can vary in this area, and I don't always get Indian Summers. 2015 was my last true one.

[Gradient Keeper]

Sounds moist!

 

We learned today that some like to play outside like that, others not so much.

It would be if I weren't wearing diapers. I always stay prepared during model riding season. Yeah, I like to play outside often. I will fish no matter if it's 15-20 degrees with snow and ice on the ground, but cold, damp soggy conditions nope you can never stay warm.

 

6z NAM in 1 hours 36 minutes

[Deweydog]

It would be if I weren't wearing diapers. I always stay prepared during model riding season. Yeah, I like to play outside often. I will fish no matter if it's 15-20 degrees with snow and ice on the ground, but cold, damp soggy conditions nope you can never stay warm.

 

6z NAM in 1 hours 36 minutes

I tend to wear a coat when it’s cold out too. We should hang out!

[Requiem]

Could be pretty rainy Friday night into Saturday. Some heavy rain rates on certain models.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

51 and damp out there. Not much rain though.

[snow_wizard]

Holy crap!  Looks like the AAM is going to be tanking.  Pretty amazing to see the anomalous trades over the Indian Ocean expand way westward without weakening at all in that region.  Again....not looking good for any potential El Nino.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

After seeing discussion about GEM I figured I had better look, and it certinly is pretty.  It would be amazing to see a pattern like that late month after the two major cold troughs we have already seen over the past few weeks.  One thing I'm seeing in all of the models is straight northerly surface pressure gradients during week 2 with very little easterly component.  That is fabulous for the Puget Sound region to remain chilly.  Even if freezing levels get high there could be some inversion thrown in there.

 

At any rate the bottom line appears to be a return to a major blocking episode, which might be setting the stage for an amazing US winter.

[snow_wizard]

The Euro appears to be right between the GFS and GEM at day 8.  I think these three models represnt a pretty plausible range of potential outcomes for week two.  I would love to see a GEM like solution verify.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EURO Nope! Block slides towards the Coast. Nice weather though.

 

[Jesse]

Let's be real - most people spend the vast majority of their lives indoors. We're all wusses and weather is not a major factor in how we spend our time.

 

Speak for yourself. 

[El_Nina]

1.80" on the month

[Guest daniel1]

Holy crap! Looks like the AAM is going to be tanking. Pretty amazing to see the anomalous trades over the Indian Ocean expand way westward without weakening at all in that region. Again....not looking good for any potential El Nino.

Dude again you need to stop denying that El Niño isn’t coming. Even though the water temps may not scream El Niño, the atmosphere is beginning to act like El Niño.

[MossMan]

Dude again you need to stop denying that El Niño isn’t coming. Even though the water temps may not scream El Niño, the atmosphere is beginning to act like El Niño.

Hi Phil!

 

El Niño!

[snow_wizard]

And the 6z GFS makes a big move toward the 0z GEM.  Absolutely crazy blocking for October with a west based -NAO making a bridge with a GOA ridge.  This is still completely up in the air.

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like the gfs is bringing back the clipper around the 28th after taking it out of the runs yesterday. Good sign we will see if that holds.

[TacomaWaWx]

We’ve had 0.05” of rain overnight to go to 0.93” over the last 48 hours, 1.16” for October. Currently 46.

[TacomaWaWx]

Some pretty heavy rain showers on radar in the SW interior moving east. Couple of early morning lightning strikes were detected around Lacey, today and tomorrow could have some garden variety thunderstorms.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Long line to gold mountain golf course this beautiful morning.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the gfs is bringing back the clipper around the 28th after taking it out of the runs yesterday. Good sign we will see if that holds.

 

If that actually happens that will be three continental cold fronts in one month.  That's crazy this early in the season.

[TT-SEA]

Long line to gold mountain golf course this beautiful morning.

 

I doubt there is ever a long line there... even on a sunny, summer day.      But good news is that pretty much every tee time there today is still open so I am sure you can get on!       

 

Side note... based on the radar it appears that this will not be a total washout day by any means.   You could actually get a round in without being drenched.   The wind is probably a bigger annoyance on the course today.

[Blizzard777]

Looks like the gfs is bringing back the clipper around the 28th after taking it out of the runs yesterday. Good sign we will see if that holds.

as well as a dry Halloween after that! 

[TacomaWaWx]

If that actually happens that will be three continental cold fronts in one month. That's crazy this early in the season.

Would be nice to see that verify, roughly 9 days out so fingers crossed!

[TacomaWaWx]

as well as a dry Halloween after that!

Could set us up nicely for some really nice weather in late October and early November along with some cold mornings.

[TT-SEA]

Could set us up nicely for some really nice weather in late October and early November along with some cold mornings.

Sounds nice.

 

But I usually think of Halloween cold as being the kiss of death for snow and cold for November and December. That would suck.

[TacomaWaWx]

Sounds nice.

 

But I usually think of Halloween cold as being the kiss of death for snow and cold for November and December. That would suck.

out of our control either way just enjoy what weather is here in the moment. It is anomalous that 3 cold air masses could hit the area before November, I think that bodes well for snow at some point this winter. you never know though wasn’t it 2002 that was good in October then the rest was a dud?

[Blizzard777]

Precipitation currently .10 for the day

monthly precipitation .93 ( right in line with Seattle)

going to fall short of adverage this month unless the storm overnight surprises us!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yeah I think we are blowing our cold load too early. 2002 indeed had a great late Oct and was then 1 of the 3 most boring winters since I’ve lived in Oregon.

[Omegaraptor]

out of our control either way just enjoy what weather is here in the moment. It is anomalous that 3 cold air masses could hit the area before November, I think that bodes well for snow at some point this winter. you never know though wasn’t it 2002 that was good in October then the rest was a dud?

2002 was near solar maximum and also moderate Niño.

[ShawniganLake]

Sounds nice.

 

But I usually think of Halloween cold as being the kiss of death for snow and cold for November and December. That would suck.

1984 had a Halloween cold snap with 8-20” of snow on Vancouver Island that night. And it stayed cold right thru winter. On the other end of the spectrum we have 1991.

[TacomaWaWx]

2002 was near solar maximum and also moderate Niño.

That is true, I also believe the next year had some cold weather around Halloween, and the 03-04 winter wasn’t a bad one. There’s good and bad examples for cold in October producing/not producing good winters. IMO we’ve got a good winter coming up considering how nearly dead the sunspot activity has been and the GOA blocking.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I doubt there is ever a long line there... even on a sunny, summer day.      But good news is that pretty much every tee time there today is still open so I am sure you can get on!       

 

Side note... based on the radar it appears that this will not be a total washout day by any means.   You could actually get a round in without being drenched.   The wind is probably a bigger annoyance on the course today.

Actually one of the nicest courses in the state. Seriously.