November 2019 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

:lol:.....and the storm vanishes.

 

 

It doesn't vanish. The SLP goes due north instead of NE and that precip it flings eastward just fizzles. That storm on the 1st-2nd looking less and less organized. Just too warm for the usual bowling ball strong storm we occasionally see in late winter (see Feb '11 for example). 

[Niko]

Once the colder airmass arrives late next weekend, after the rainstorm leaves on Sunday, it could remain dry and quite cold w quiet weather persisting most of the following week of early December. We will see.

[Niko]

It doesn't vanish. The SLP goes due north instead of NE and that precip it flings eastward just fizzles. That storm on the 1st-2nd looking less and less organized. Just too warm for the usual bowling ball strong storm we occasionally see in late winter (see Feb '11 for example). 

Ok...so, I'll rephrase it. The Precip vanishes.

 

Notice how suddenly, a storm pops up in Northern New England......

[jaster220]

Once the colder airmass arrives late next weekend, after the rainstorm leaves on Sunday, it could remain dry and quite cold w quiet weather persisting most of the following week of early December. We will see.

 

After these two strong systems this week, I'm sure we'll get into another "lull" as the pattern decides what it wants to do next. Might get to watch the East Coast get active. Won't that be fun? 

[Niko]

After these two strong systems this week, I'm sure we'll get into another "lull" as the pattern decides what it wants to do next. Might get to watch the East Coast get active. Won't that be fun? 

 

Tbh, I never did like November snowstorms....I fear for December amigo! Question here is...will it be dry and cold now (Starting December?!) Its not looking very active, I'll tell ya that. Hope that is not the case, I mean, weather changes from one day to the next, so, who knows.

[Niko]

Jaster--

 

Kept forgetting to ask ya bud, do you still have any leftova snowpiles. Believe it or not, I still do and some are big

[Minny_Weather]

Jaster--

 

Kept forgetting to ask ya bud, do you still have any leftova snowpiles. Believe it or not, I still do and some are big

I have quite a few here still surprisingly! There's a mountain in the Best Buy parking lot.

[OKwx2k4]

Pretty big 3 hour temp swing this morning.

[Niko]

I have quite a few here still surprisingly! There's a mountain in the Best Buy parking lot.

 

Same here..when I go to store pkg-lots, I see a whole bunch of them as well. Looks like they are as hard as steel and aint going nowhere.

[Niko]

Just step outside for a minute on my patio, and it feels sooooooo nice outside. Wow! Temp at 38F under a deep blue sky. Dang!

[Tom]

At this range, while we look at the varying model solutions for the late month system, one of the important aspects to this years pattern is for the models to weaken the initial wave and develop the stronger southern/secondary wave.  Today's 12z ICON flashed that same scenario and its something to pay attn to over the coming days.  I believe the models will struggle how long that energy sits in the west before it ejects out.  I've seen this play out several times this season already where we need to show a little patience to see if the energy comes out all at once or in two pieces.

 

Last night's 00z EPS had this look at Day 7....when I saw this, I said to myself, "watch that energy in S TX"....should be an interesting week of tracking!

 

 

 

[Hawkeye]

I wish I could enjoy the nice weather a bit more.  I'm still trying to get over a bad cold.  I've spent much of the last couple days in bed.  I'm finally improving some, so hopefully I can get outside tomorrow.

[Andie]

Pretty big 3 hour temp swing this morning.current.TAIR_03H.grad.png

If we want late Fall and Winter, looks like we'll have to travel north.

[Andie]

I wish I could enjoy the nice weather a bit more.  I'm still trying to get over a bad cold.  I've spent much of the last couple days in bed.  I'm finally improving some, so hopefully I can get outside tomorrow.

Feel better soon, winters on your doorstep!

[jaster220]

Jaster--

 

Kept forgetting to ask ya bud, do you still have any leftova snowpiles. Believe it or not, I still do and some are big

 

I have quite a few here still surprisingly! There's a mountain in the Best Buy parking lot.

 

In Marshall they're small-ish (3 ft?), but at the mall near my work in Jackson there were still some 10-12 footers as of noon Thurs. I had just the smallest little pile on my property near the street yesterday when raking leafs. Four days AOA normal starting "now" should about finish most remnants around these parts. 

[Tom]

I wish I could enjoy the nice weather a bit more. I'm still trying to get over a bad cold. I've spent much of the last couple days in bed. I'm finally improving some, so hopefully I can get outside tomorrow.

Hope you get better soon and before the holiday bud!

[jaster220]

At this range, while we look at the varying model solutions for the late month system, one of the important aspects to this years pattern is for the models to weaken the initial wave and develop the stronger southern/secondary wave.  Today's 12z ICON flashed that same scenario and its something to pay attn to over the coming days.  I believe the models will struggle how long that energy sits in the west before it ejects out.  I've seen this play out several times this season already where we need to show a little patience to see if the energy comes out all at once or in two pieces.

 

Last night's 00z EPS had this look at Day 7....when I saw this, I said to myself, "watch that energy in S TX"....should be an interesting week of tracking!

 

 

 

 

IF there's to be any positive developments with #2nd system, I think the hand-writing (wringing??) will be on the wall by Tuesday-ish as system #1 will be decided by models at that point. 

[Tom]

IF there's to be any positive developments with #2nd system, I think the hand-writing (wringing??) will be on the wall by Tuesday-ish as system #1 will be decided by models at that point.

That’s what I’m thinking...by then we should see if there will be 1 or 2 pieces of energy. With that being said, 12z Euro shows one main piece ejecting into Upper MW.

[Niko]

In Marshall they're small-ish (3 ft?), but at the mall near my work in Jackson there were still some 10-12 footers as of noon Thurs. I had just the smallest little pile on my property near the street yesterday when raking leafs. Four days AOA normal starting "now" should about finish most remnants around these parts. 

Awesome!

[Niko]

Absolutely gorgeous outside. Temps in the mid 40s w abundant sunshine.

[Niko]

Whatever the case is for next weekend after TG, the storm needs to be watched. Lots can happen and change weatherwise from today and during that timeframe.

[Niko]

Pretty big 3 hour temp swing this morning.current.TAIR_03H.grad.png

Take out the shades!

[Hawkeye]

Here's the Thanksgiving snow event on the Euro.

 

[jaster220]

Here's the Thanksgiving snow event on the Euro.

 

 

That would be a smidge south of the 1st storm. Then it fizzles going from that point until it gets past the Lwr Lakes. 

[Niko]

Sometimes when you enjoy such perfect weather like today during this time of the year, you just wonder and say to yaself, do you really want snow NOW!!!!. I mean, how bout we let Winter arrive first and enjoy this marvelous time of the year w raking leaves, prep decor for Thanksgiving (even Christmas if you are in a hurry and etc). Ya know wha I mean y'all.

[Niko]

That would be a smidge south of the 1st storm. Then it fizzles going from that point until it gets past the Lwr Lakes. 

 

Here's the Thanksgiving snow event on the Euro.

 

The storm that disappears outta nowhere and reappears in NNE.... :lol: :lol:

[Niko]

Attm, 46F w sunny skies. Not a leaf moving. O mph wind as of now.

[Stacsh]

Is the cold air ever coming? Next storm looks warm as well. Brief shot cooler air then bam gets warmer again.

[jaster220]

That’s what I’m thinking...by then we should see if there will be 1 or 2 pieces of energy. With that being said, 12z Euro shows one main piece ejecting into Upper MW.

 

I know the Euro has a great track record, but the 12/1-2 system is still a bit beyond it's d5 iron grasp. In years past you liked to use the GEFS as better guidance on where a SLP might track. Have you shied away from using that tool? What do they look like for Dec 1-2?

[jaster220]

Is the cold air ever coming? Next storm looks warm as well. Brief shot cooler air then bam gets warmer again.

 

 Yeah, kinda disappointed in that. I thought this first storm would tug down some colder air mass to get  us in the snow game with #2. Unless models are still clueless to later developments, that idea seems to have vanished. Now the below normal stuff got pushed back to Dec 3 or later. Watched the Sat Summary and it looks like the SSW is being a bit "wishy-washy" compared to earlier projections. 

[jaster220]

Sometimes when you enjoy such perfect weather like today during this time of the year, you just wonder and say to yaself, do you really want snow NOW!!!!. I mean, how bout we let Winter arrive first and enjoy this marvelous time of the year w raking leaves, prep decor for Thanksgiving (even Christmas if you are in a hurry and etc). Ya know wha I mean y'all.

 

Yep. For those who like late autumn wx, this is a top shelf afternoon. I finished my leaf moving and preparing for the next onslaught of winds this week. These conditions energize me since I can get aggressive and not have to sweat the sweating that happens most of the year. 

[jaster220]

Dang!  2nd piece of energy looks like a small hurricane beast as it comes into the W. Coast! That's not something you see every day. Would imagine that translates downstream coming out of the Rockies. 

 

[St Paul Storm]

Made it to 45F this afternoon. Awesome day of leaf blowing and burning some brush in the fire pit. Time to saddle up as winter is here.

[jaster220]

Ofc, if we could all beat a drum loudly enough to get the next storm to track further south, I'll spring for the instruments. Short of doing that, I would take this morning's GEM depiction as the next best thing. 

 

[MIKEKC]

GFS has some good snows for Neb and parts of Iowa early in the week followed by rain and temps in the 40’s and some 50’s late in the week. What a mess if that happens.

 

Looks like more misses in KC this week, maybe we catch some good moisture late in the week with the 3rd storm. We need some!

 

GFS then shows a big warming trend day 10-16 across the country..hopefully that will change in future runs.

[jaster220]

Although mostly north of the heart of our sub's members, the 12z Euro certainly builds a glacier in the next 7 days across much of the CONUS. 

 

[jaster220]

Am I the only one that noticed both GEM and ICON absolutely bury most of Nebraska between both storms??    Euro much less so, and GFS is out to lunch, but wowza. 

[Madtown]

I wish I could enjoy the nice weather a bit more. I'm still trying to get over a bad cold. I've spent much of the last couple days in bed. I'm finally improving some, so hopefully I can get outside tomorrow.

 

Same here...all week long. Been trying to get all the leaves, Christmas lights and hockey rink up!

[OmahaSnowFan]

I’ve noticed the warmth too. Has showed up for several runs now.

 

GFS has some good snows for Neb and parts of Iowa early in the week followed by rain and temps in the 40’s and some 50’s late in the week. What a mess if that happens.

 

Looks like more misses in KC this week, maybe we catch some good moisture late in the week with the 3rd storm. We need some!

 

GFS then shows a big warming trend day 10-16 across the country..hopefully that will change in future runs.

[Niko]

Is the cold air ever coming? Next storm looks warm as well. Brief shot cooler air then bam gets warmer again.

Indeed...wet, followed by colder air. Also not as cold as advertised. It has modified some.