November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I'm definitely not sold on any snow down here yet. It appears that chilliness is quite likely.

 

Ditto. Not sold on it up here, either.

[Requiem]

Ditto. Not sold on it up here, either.

 

Not even sold on any cold yet. Excited, but very cautiously optimistic.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This definitely has the late November/December 2005 vibe. 

[Requiem]

This definitely has the late November/December 2005 vibe. 

 

I hope not, that ended up being pretty bad. Who knows, we've seen some crazy stuff already this year.

[snow_wizard]

Not even sold on any cold yet. Excited, but very cautiously optimistic.

 

The cold is highly likely now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I hope not, that ended up being pretty bad. Who knows, we've seen some crazy stuff already this year.

 

It was a pretty cold stretch. Coldest minimum at SLE since December 1998. Maybe says more about the 1998-2005 period than anything else, but stil...

 

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=2005&month=12&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

[Phil]

Huge -EPO signal at the end of the 18z GEFS.

 

That would be amplified if it were a D1 operational run. But this is a D16 ensemble mean, lmao.

 

[Requiem]

Huge -EPO signal at the end of the 18z GEFS.

 

That would be amplified if it were a D1 operational run. But this is a D16 ensemble mean, lmao.

 

 

Is that a typically good pattern for Western cold?

[Gradient Keeper]

I saw snowflakes on the weather app... figured it was time to check the models and begin lurking on here. Hope everyone is doing well

Hey, Bryant! Welcome back!

 

00z GFS in 1 hour 7 minutes

[snow_wizard]

It was a pretty cold stretch. Coldest minimum at SLE since December 1998. Maybe says more about the 1998-2005 period than anything else, but stil...

 

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=2005&month=12&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

I think Jan 1999 through 2006 may have been the rock bottom that we will ever see here.  Jan 2004 and Dec 2005 (for some) was about all there was in that period.

[snow_wizard]

Is that a typically good pattern for Western cold?

 

The big point is that anomaly is so strong at that time frame.  The location shown isn't perfect for us, but still cold.  Lots of cold between now and then though.

[Guest CulverJosh]

The big point is that anomaly is so strong at that time frame. The location shown isn't perfect for us, but still cold. Lots of cold between now and then though.

And like Tim, Phil does like to cherry-pick scenarios he deems good for himself. Not starting a flame-war, just an observation.

[Requiem]

The big point is that anomaly is so strong at that time frame.  The location shown isn't perfect for us, but still cold.  Lots of cold between now and then though.

 

Gotcha. So just cold in general for a while! Lots of potential, which is exciting. I'm optimistic.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

My Steve Pool story. Back in 2004 I lived on Capital Hill in Seattle. I was in the checkout line at the old Safeway on Broadway Ave. I was third or so in line, turned around to look at something behind me and when I turned back around to face forward, Steve was in front of me. He looked back and me and said "Oh, were you in line? I said yes, actually that's why I'm standing here, he then turned his back to me and just stayed in line. No apology, nothing, just cut in front of me, acknowledged his cutting and left me hanging.

Cool story.

[FroYoBro]

Who will be the appointed member to stay up for the 00z gfs and tell us how it looks?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

EB394BCC-9D2F-4A30-83EB-6830587430E9.png

 

So it begins...

Nice, what app is that?

[umadbro]

Who will be the appointed member to stay up for the 00z gfs and tell us how it looks?

8pm is staying up?

[High Desert Mat?]

The big point is that anomaly is so strong at that time frame. The location shown isn't perfect for us, but still cold. Lots of cold between now and then though.

Actually that’s not too bad Iim since it’s an ensemble smoothed over spread. I can’t believe how the models turned on a dime like this. I’m telling everyone it’s going to snow. Now it “has” to. Don’t make me look dumb euro

[FroYoBro]

8pm is staying up?

You seem tough. You are the chosen one.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Huge -EPO signal at the end of the 18z GEFS.

 

That would be amplified if it were a D1 operational run. But this is a D16 ensemble mean, lmao.

 

Love seeing that blocking up in Alaska. It needs to develop a little more west for us but not worried about the details right now.

[El_Nina]

I love my location being right within gorge influence, just west of the cascades and with a little elevation. I seem to do okay.

[Deweydog]

Who will be the appointed member to stay up for the 00z gfs and tell us how it looks?

Joseph Smith is standing by with the magic hat and will be translating.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Love seeing that blocking up in Alaska. It needs to develop a little more west for us but not worried about the details right now.

What is misleading about those maps is that positive anomalies up there can be negative down here. I would gladly take Whitehorse +5.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Rod Hill Wednesday evening update.

 

[MossMan]

Rod Hill Wednesday evening update.

 

Isn’t that Snowmizer’s Uncle?

[snow_wizard]

Rod Hill Wednesday evening update.

 

 

Looks a bit warm to me.

[snow_wizard]

Love seeing that blocking up in Alaska. It needs to develop a little more west for us but not worried about the details right now.

 

The thing is the stuff before that is perfect for cold here.  The graphic he posted is way out.

[snow_wizard]

Already down to 37 here.  Looks like a bunch more freezing low temps on the way over the next couple of weeks.

[MossMan]

35 currently. Chilly.

[Phil]

Is that a typically good pattern for Western cold?

It can be, yes. The low resolution, clown range GEFS can’t always pick up on these complex pattern progressions accurately. We’re talking D16 here..the large scale entities and pattern progression itself are the only semi-decipherable aspects.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Looks a bit warm to me.

Probably just playing it safe for now.

[Phil]

I saw snowflakes on the weather app... figured it was time to check the models and begin lurking on here. Hope everyone is doing well

Great to hear for you again, brother!

[Phil]

Actually that’s not too bad Iim since it’s an ensemble smoothed over spread. I can’t believe how the models turned on a dime like this. I’m telling everyone it’s going to snow. Now it “has” to. Don’t make me look dumb euro

They pull this stunt every time the stratosphere gets knocked up. It’s pretty funny.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The thing is the stuff before that is perfect for cold here. The graphic he posted is way out.

Yeah, I'm really liking the potential for cold weather and possible lowland snow for Thanksgiving weekend. The long range only solidifies that we might be in a cold pattern for the long haul.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z NAM. The evolving ridge merger is now showing up on the NAM in just 3.5 days.

 

[Phil]

I thought you guys would like that GEFS image, lol.

 

Super -EPO like on a D16 ensemble mean..just minor changes to it would lead to a very different (IE a much colder) picture locally.

 

I’m only looking at the big picture..does anyone expect the models to remain stable right now? Ha...

[Deweydog]

How will the Christmas Ships run when the Columbia is froze over???

[Bryant]

[Timmy Supercell]

High of 46, now 33. Feels like November, yup.

[Jesse]