November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[MossMan]

Will someone please post the chillier EPS?

Tim got yelled at too many times.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like we are up over 0.80" of rain on the day as it continues to fall. 

[Guest CulverJosh]

Looking good for over here early next week. Still lots of uncertainty though.

 

Pendleton AFD

 

LONG TERM...Friday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of

high pressure over the region is expected to give way to an active

progressive pattern beginning with a cold frontal passage on Sunday.

There will be some lingering low clouds and fog impacting the

forecast area until the front passage Sunday. Sunday through Tuesday

will see a series of fast moving system impacting the region with

abundant precipitation. The question is how much cold air will be

associated with these systems. The GFS model brings the most cold

air into the region with snow levels lowering to around 1000 feet by

Monday night and Tuesday. However, the ECMWF would indicate that

snow levels only lower to around 2000 to 3000 feet. Based the

forecast on the colder scenario but confidence is low at this point.

[TT-SEA]

Will someone please post the chillier EPS?

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

Thank you good sir!

[Gradient Keeper]

After reviewing all 12z Operational runs and Ensembles pattern change is definitely coming to wetter, active(possible wind storm?) and tons of mt. snow. Also, I like seeing the models possibly trending to back the ridge off with better amplification and merger with offshore ridge/Aleutian ridge. We are really quite close to seeing models trend colder with at least backdoor cold if not a legit arctic blast, but it all depends on amplification. If we end up with less amplification we will only see somewhat chilly northwesterly flow. Colder runs ahead? You heard it hear first. It's not a forecast, but given where the block is setting up at and the depending on the degree of amplification/tilt it's a possibility.

 

12/1

 

00z GFS in 5 hours 6 minutes

00z GEFS in 6 hours 38 minutes

00z ECMWF in 7 hours 23 minutes

00z EPS in 10 hour 7 minutes

[TigerWoodsLibido]

16 years ago last night/today was fun.

 

Was in marching band and it was accumulating and needless to say, we had to stop our practice. I'm pretty sure it ended the nearly 7 year streak of snowless weather in EUG.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

After reviewing all 12z Operational runs and Ensembles pattern change is definitely coming to wetter, active(possible wind storm?) and tons of mt. snow. Also, I like seeing the models possibly trending to back the ridge off with better amplification and merger with offshore ridge/Aleutian ridge. We are really quite close to seeing models trend colder with at least backdoor cold if not a legit arctic blast, but it all depends on amplification. If we end up with less amplification we will only see somewhat chilly northwesterly flow. Colder runs ahead? You heard it hear first. It's not a forecast, but given where the block is setting up at and the depending on the degree of amplification/tilt it's a possibility.

 

12/1

 

00z GFS in 5 hours 6 minutes

00z GEFS in 6 hours 38 minutes

00z ECMWF in 7 hours 23 minutes

00z EPS in 10 hour 7 minutes

 

Gonna be good 06z runs, I have a good feeling.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z isn't as chilly next week, but it has more mountain snow. Just a few minor details keeping it from being a really nice pattern..

[Jesse]

Was in marching band and it was accumulating and needless to say, we had to stop our practice. I'm pretty sure it ended the nearly 7 year streak of snowless weather in EUG.

That’s funny, since I was in 1st period band class when the snow started. I remember we were practicing “March of the Toy Soldiers” for our Christmas concert when the rain first started to look chunky. Pretty soon people were gathering around the windows.

 

I will forever associate that song with that event.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the 18z would give me a dusting on Thanksgiving morning. 

[Gradient Keeper]

18z isn't as chilly next week, but it has more mountain snow. Just a few minor details keeping it from being a really nice pattern..

Yeah subtle adjustments to 500mb pattern is all we need now with the main player offshore near the sweet spot.

 

00z NAM in 3 hours 10 minutes

[TigerWoodsLibido]

54/51 temp spread today thus far.  Cloudy with the occasional shower.  Feels like November. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some pretty cold air bleeding into NE Washington here...

 

[Esquimalt]

18z shows a decent overrunning event up here too

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Long range CFS showing a somewhat favorable setup as we move into mid-December. Offshore block begins to tilt and we get some continental air. Problem is it is not super amplified so it probably would not be super cold. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Some pretty cold air bleeding into NE Washington here...

 

 

About how cold could this fall stack over at Spokane? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z is a great snow pack building run. 

[Jesse]

18z is a great snow pack building run.

 

I honestly feel like that should be the number one ☝ priority right now.

[kokaneekidz]

Looking good for over here early next week. Still lots of uncertainty though.

 

Pendleton AFD

 

LONG TERM...Friday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of

high pressure over the region is expected to give way to an active

progressive pattern beginning with a cold frontal passage on Sunday.

There will be some lingering low clouds and fog impacting the

forecast area until the front passage Sunday. Sunday through Tuesday

will see a series of fast moving system impacting the region with

abundant precipitation. The question is how much cold air will be

associated with these systems. The GFS model brings the most cold

air into the region with snow levels lowering to around 1000 feet by

Monday night and Tuesday. However, the ECMWF would indicate that

snow levels only lower to around 2000 to 3000 feet. Based the

forecast on the colder scenario but confidence is low at this point.

The GFS is the new sheriff in town. Bring it baby!

[Guest CulverJosh]

The GFS is the new sheriff in town. Bring it baby!

True. But I am good with either models estimated snow level. I am at 2800'.

[kokaneekidz]

About how cold could this fall stack over at Spokane? 

That shows a beautiful Strait of Georgia CZ snow band around Mt Vernon to mossmans and a less pronounced PSCZ around south snoho county too. I'll take that. At least the resorts will be opening sooner than was seeming just days ago.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

A little elevation really helps in our mild climate. There were plenty of times that I got 6"+ when the floor got an inch or two. 36" was my best seasonal total. Memory is a bit fuzzy, but it was either 1989 or 92-93. Too lazy to look it up.

 

The one time I lived at 300' elevation in Shoreline, I lost count of the number of times I had 4"+ on the ground (and sometimes 8"+), when areas near the sea level had bare ground. Of course, I had help from the PSCZ working in my favor there, too.

[TacomaWaWx]

The one time I lived at 300' elevation in Shoreline, I lost count of the number of times I had 4"+ on the ground (and sometimes 8"+), when areas near the sea level had bare ground. Of course, I had help from the PSCZ working in my favor there, too.

300’ makes a big difference. Sometimes the snows not even sticking at sea level while it’s snowed 2 inches at my house. It definitely made a difference this February as well.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Long range CFS showing a somewhat favorable setup as we move into mid-December. Offshore block begins to tilt and we get some continental air. Problem is it is not super amplified so it probably would not be super cold. 

In mid December, it may not need to be super cold.  That time of year, average temps are pretty close to as low as it gets.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Never had appendicitis but heard it's one of the most painful things that can happen. That sucks.

 

I've had it, and in my case it wasn't particularly painful. In fact, it wasn't painful at all for the first few days; just a general feeling of low energy coupled with a profound lack of appetite. When the pain finally came, it was in a different place than I had ever hurt. I checked Wikipedia, and it was the appendicitis spot. Because I didn't feel that sick (or hurt that badly), and wasn't running a fever yet, I decided it wasn't anything to worry about.

 

A few hours later, and it was hurting more and I was running a fever. I called up a friend and had him drive me to the emergency room.

 

The real pain didn't happen until after the operation. The first 24 hours was pretty miserable. But my feeling here is that this is the sort of thing that can be very different from individual to individual, so for some people it probably is extremely painful as the symptoms develop.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z ensembles show a lot more spread. Some pretty cold members. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In mid December, it may not need to be super cold.  That time of year, average temps are pretty close to as low as it gets.  

 

True. I think even the first week of December may end up being fairly chilly. 

[Guest CulverJosh]

300’ makes a big difference. Sometimes the snows not even sticking at sea level while it’s snowed 2 inches at my house. It definitely made a difference this February as well.

Yep, I lived right by the Bothell/Everett Hwy exit off 405, up 228th to the top of the hill near Frank Love Elementary. Many times it would be a slushy mix at the applebees at the base of the hill, 190' elevation. Get to my house at 450' and I would be in a winter wonderland, then back down the hill towards Kenmore and it was mixed again. I miss that little spot, had some crazy micro-climates going on.

[SouthHillFrosty]

If it’s on the weather app, it will happen 100%

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Yep, I lived right by the Bothell/Everett Hwy exit off 405, up 228th to the top of the hill near Frank Love Elementary. Many times it would be a slushy mix at the applebees at the base of the hill, 190' elevation. Get to my house at 450' and I would be in a winter wonderland, then back down the hill towards Kenmore and it was mixed again. I miss that little spot, had some crazy micro-climates going on.

 

Oh, that hill. I worked at Canyon Park for two years and the shortcut route from my place in Shoreline crested that hill. It's a total snow zone. Probably snowier than my old Shoreline place by as much a margin as my old Shoreline place was snowier than the UW campus in Seattle.

[TT-SEA]

If it’s on the weather app, it will happen 100%

 

 

But even if it did happen... a high of 45 and a low of 35 would render it meaningless anyways.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

If it’s on the weather app, it will happen 100%

 

I agree, there is a 100% chance the sun will set at the time forecast in the app.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Had a nice stroll in town during the first rain in exactly a month. There had to be around 0.25" precip at least, on many streets I had to jump over spots that were ponding. Never mind the time stamp still being on daylight.. I actually was going to turn it off.

 

 

 

The last of the Fall colors. This has to be one of only a dozen trees with red on it right now.

 

 

 

Beautiful pictures. Is that the Church you go to? I've never been to K Falls but I'm planning to this summer. Really nice area from what I heard.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS Analog Composite Day 6-10, 8-14 top analog year is November 1955! C'MON!!!!

 

00z GFS in 3 hours 41 minutes

[Front Ranger]

But even if it did happen... a high of 45 and a low of 35 would render it meaningless anyways.

 

Every snowflake matters.

[Gradient Keeper]

Been a rough year for the Mrs., appendicitis, miscarriage, and now pneumonia. So working from home for a few days. Pretty raw out there today, 46 with rain continuing to fall. 

Holy cow. That's awful. Hope she feels better soon.

[TT-SEA]

Every snowflake matters.

 

 

Subjective of course.   I consider non-accumulating sloppy snow to be the same as cold rain.  

[Guest CulverJosh]

Oh, that hill. I worked at Canyon Park for two years and the shortcut route from my place in Shoreline crested that hill. It's a total snow zone. Probably snowier than my old Shoreline place by as much a margin as my old Shoreline place was snowier than the UW campus in Seattle.

Ya man. That hill seemed to have the right ingredients. The people I knew down in Canyon Park would never believe me when I told them I couldnt make it down. That hill along with Finn Hill in Kenmore were pretty crazy little snow zones.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

If it’s on the weather app, it will happen 100%

Seeing that high of 45 with snow in the forecast reminded me of what I saw happen in Anchorage this past Saturday. Extreme weather on both ends of the spectrum.

 

"Anchorage, Alaska, set an unusual combination of records for warmth and snowfall on Saturday.

 

The first new weather record was set at 2:33 a.m., when Anchorage saw its high temperature top out at 45 degrees. That tied the city's daily record high for Nov. 16 set in 1967.

 

Colder air and moisture from a low-pressure system then moved into south-central Alaska shortly afterward and set the stage for a more wintry record to be toppled.

 

Snowfall from the storm began in Anchorage during the morning and lasted the rest of the day, totaling 8.4 inches by midnight. That set a calendar day record for the city's most snowfall on Nov. 16. The previous record was 8.3 inches set in 1958."

 

 

https://weather.com/news/news/2019-11-18-anchorage-alaska-record-high-temperatures-snowfall-november-16