November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Guest CulverJosh]

Anchorage gets a ton of days where snow is flying, but surprisingly the big accumulations rarely happen. Big bowl up there.

[Requiem]

On another topic, EURO has consistently been showing a pretty potent storm on Thanksgiving Day into the day after. Still a while out, but GFS has shown a pretty strong system for that day as well, so we'll see. The support for a strong low is there for sure.

[Timmy Supercell]

Beautiful pictures. Is that the Church you go to? I've never been to K Falls but I'm planning to this summer. Really nice area from what I heard.

 

I actually don't go to church, but we have a lot of them in this town, and some cool ones at that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Midnight high of 48, current temp of 45 is the low for the day. 0.86" of rain. 

[Timmy Supercell]

49/31 here. KLMT got 1/20" inch of rain but at least twice that if not more in downtown.

[El_Nina]

I actually don't go to church, but we have a lot of them in this town, and some cool ones at that.

Isn't there a heavy LDS influence there?

[Timmy Supercell]

Isn't there a heavy LDS influence there?

 

Yes, we have that here as well. I met some folks years ago who goes to one.

[Phil]

From the JMA: El Niño modoki, and the SINTEX-F projection through boreal spring.

 

[TT-SEA]

I thought the blob was completely destroyed and pummeled into oblivion last month? No doubt that was going to happen.

 

[Farmboy]

Anchorage gets a ton of days where snow is flying, but surprisingly the big accumulations rarely happen. Big bowl up there.

The big dumps do happen from time to time. I remember 18" of heavy wet snow falling in October once when I lived there.

[Front Ranger]

Anchorage gets a ton of days where snow is flying, but surprisingly the big accumulations rarely happen. Big bowl up there.

 

I mean, they do average 72" a year.

[Gradient Keeper]

On another topic, EURO has consistently been showing a pretty potent storm on Thanksgiving Day into the day after. Still a while out, but GFS has shown a pretty strong system for that day as well, so we'll see. The support for a strong low is there for sure.

GEM also a few runs has featured a deep low. A LOT of potential ahead.

 

00z GFS in 2 hours 9 minutes

[Omegaraptor]

If it’s on the weather app, it will happen 100%

 

At least use Wunderground...

[MossMan]

El Niño!

[High Desert Mat?]

Ya man. That hill seemed to have the right ingredients. The people I knew down in Canyon Park would never believe me when I told them I couldnt make it down. That hill along with Finn Hill in Kenmore were pretty crazy little snow zones.

. If you the ink that’s bad wait until there’s 4-8” constantly on the ground in south bend where you may have to work on a daily basis and get used to it. It’s really not that bad in the western lowlands. ‘08 was bad, I know. It sucked when I had to go anywhere.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I mean, they do average 72" a year.

 

What is your average. 

[Requiem]

GEM also a few runs has featured a deep low. A LOT of potential ahead.

 

00z GFS in 2 hours 9 minutes

 

The incredibly conservative and flaky JMA has one as well, in addition to the EPS ensembles to an extent. Shows a similar setup, powerful low sweeping across C. Vancouver Island from west to east.

[Guest CulverJosh]

I mean, they do average 72" a year.

My point was they get consistent light flurries with a lot of 1-3" snowfalls. Anything over 10" is an anomaly. Seward is another story.

[Requiem]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Would be a nice windstorm PDX north.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Would be a nice windstorm PDX north.

And a good 6 incher here. All I could ever offer .

[Phil]

-EPO delivers the cold, but there’s no better recipe for deep cyclones from coast-to-coast than a -NAO. I’ll have to dig up the study but sub-980 cyclones are something like 550% more likely south of 45N with a -NAO over the lower-48 vs a +NAO.

[Requiem]

-EPO delivers the cold, but there’s no better recipe for deep cyclones from coast-to-coast than a -NAO. I’ll have to dig up the study but sub-980 cyclones are something like 550% more likely south of 45N with a -NAO over the lower-48 vs a +NAO.

 

We'll see what happens. Model consistency, even for something a bit out, has me excited for the very possibility of a decent storm.

[BLI snowman]

Been a rough year for the Mrs., appendicitis, miscarriage, and now pneumonia. So working from home for a few days. Pretty raw out there today, 46 with rain continuing to fall.

Sorry, man!!

 

Hang in there.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Models just took a .

[Requiem]

Models just took a s**t.

 

But...nothing's been out for a while (18Z runs were quite good)....

[Guest CulverJosh]

But...nothing's been out for a while (18Z runs were quite good)....

That was click-bait. Was kidding.

[MossMan]

Models just took a s**t.

Did we just loose the NAM?

[Guest CulverJosh]

Read my banter post just now. Anyone disagree?

[Timmy]

Read my banter post just now. Anyone disagree?

Doesn’t this post make the banter thread pointless?

[Guest CulverJosh]

Doesn’t this post make the banter thread pointless?

No. Because I get in trouble for posts like that here.

[The Swamp]

Cancel Thanksgiving. I see snow on my phone weather app.

 

Time to make some snow monsters.

[Esquimalt]

I am wondering about my chances of seeing some snowflakes if that big storm makes landfall in southern-central Washington

[Front Ranger]

What is your average.

65-70", so just a bit less.

[kokaneekidz]

Newflash, weather channel calling for PSCZ snow.

 

 

Mukilteo, WA 10 Day Weather

7:25 pm PST

 

Mukilteo, WA 10 Day Weather

7:25 pm PST

Print

DAY

 

DESCRIPTION HIGH / LOW PRECIP WIND HUMIDITY

TONIGHT

 

NOV 19

Partly Cloudy

--38^°

10%

N 6 mph 84%

WED

 

NOV 20

Sunny

47^°34^°

10%

N 5 mph 72%

THU

 

NOV 21

Sunny

48^°34^°

10%

NNE 4 mph 67%

FRI

 

NOV 22

Partly Cloudy

46^°37^°

10%

SSE 4 mph 78%

SAT

 

NOV 23

PM Showers

47^°43^°

50%

SSE 11 mph 81%

SUN

 

NOV 24

Showers

47^°38^°

40%

SW 7 mph 84%

MON

 

NOV 25

Showers

43^°36^°

40%

SE 6 mph 84%

TUE

 

NOV 26

Rain/Snow Showers

42^°37^°

50%

SE 10 mph 80%

WED

 

NOV 27

Showers

41^°36^°

40%

NE 10 mph 82%

THU

 

NOV 28

Rain/Snow Showers

42^°36^°

40%

SSE 8 mph 82%

FRI

 

NOV 29

Rain/Snow Showers

42^°37^°

40%

SSE 7 mph 84%

SAT

 

NOV 30

Showers

42^°37^°

50%

SE 7 mph 84%

SUN

 

DEC 1

Showers

43^°37^°

40%

S 9 mph 86%

MON

 

DEC 2

Showers

43^°37^°

50%

SSE 7 mph 83%

TUE

 

DEC 3

Showers

42^°36^°

40%

SSE 7 mph 82%

[Jesse]

 

Newflash, weather channel calling for PSCZ snow.

 

 

Mukilteo, WA 10 Day Weather

7:25 pm PST

 

Mukilteo, WA 10 Day Weather

7:25 pm PST

Print

DAY

 

DESCRIPTION HIGH / LOW PRECIP WIND HUMIDITY

TONIGHT

 

NOV 19

Partly Cloudy

--38^°

10%

N 6 mph 84%

WED

 

NOV 20

Sunny

47^°34^°

10%

N 5 mph 72%

THU

 

NOV 21

Sunny

48^°34^°

10%

NNE 4 mph 67%

FRI

 

NOV 22

Partly Cloudy

46^°37^°

10%

SSE 4 mph 78%

SAT

 

NOV 23

PM Showers

47^°43^°

50%

SSE 11 mph 81%

SUN

 

NOV 24

Showers

47^°38^°

40%

SW 7 mph 84%

MON

 

NOV 25

Showers

43^°36^°

40%

SE 6 mph 84%

TUE

 

NOV 26

Rain/Snow Showers

42^°37^°

50%

SE 10 mph 80%

WED

 

NOV 27

Showers

41^°36^°

40%

NE 10 mph 82%

THU

 

NOV 28

Rain/Snow Showers

42^°36^°

40%

SSE 8 mph 82%

FRI

 

NOV 29

Rain/Snow Showers

42^°37^°

40%

SSE 7 mph 84%

SAT

 

NOV 30

Showers

42^°37^°

50%

SE 7 mph 84%

SUN

 

DEC 1

Showers

43^°37^°

40%

S 9 mph 86%

MON

 

DEC 2

Showers

43^°37^°

50%

SSE 7 mph 83%

TUE

 

DEC 3

Showers

42^°36^°

40%

SSE 7 mph 82%

 

 

what day

[TT-SEA]

 

Newflash, weather channel calling for PSCZ snow.

 

 

Mukilteo, WA 10 Day Weather

7:25 pm PST

 

Mukilteo, WA 10 Day Weather

7:25 pm PST

Print

DAY

 

DESCRIPTION HIGH / LOW PRECIP WIND HUMIDITY

TONIGHT

 

NOV 19

Partly Cloudy

--38^°

10%

N 6 mph 84%

WED

 

NOV 20

Sunny

47^°34^°

10%

N 5 mph 72%

THU

 

NOV 21

Sunny

48^°34^°

10%

NNE 4 mph 67%

FRI

 

NOV 22

Partly Cloudy

46^°37^°

10%

SSE 4 mph 78%

SAT

 

NOV 23

PM Showers

47^°43^°

50%

SSE 11 mph 81%

SUN

 

NOV 24

Showers

47^°38^°

40%

SW 7 mph 84%

MON

 

NOV 25

Showers

43^°36^°

40%

SE 6 mph 84%

TUE

 

NOV 26

Rain/Snow Showers

42^°37^°

50%

SE 10 mph 80%

WED

 

NOV 27

Showers

41^°36^°

40%

NE 10 mph 82%

THU

 

NOV 28

Rain/Snow Showers

42^°36^°

40%

SSE 8 mph 82%

FRI

 

NOV 29

Rain/Snow Showers

42^°37^°

40%

SSE 7 mph 84%

SAT

 

NOV 30

Showers

42^°37^°

50%

SE 7 mph 84%

SUN

 

DEC 1

Showers

43^°37^°

40%

S 9 mph 86%

MON

 

DEC 2

Showers

43^°37^°

50%

SSE 7 mph 83%

TUE

 

DEC 3

Showers

42^°36^°

40%

SSE 7 mph 82%

 

 

 

November 30th will actually be 44 there... that is totally wrong.

[Requiem]

Hopefully my storm still exists after this round of models...fingers crossed!

[Dave]

Newflash, weather channel calling for PSCZ snow.

 

 

Mukilteo, WA 10 Day Weather

7:25 pm PST

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mukilteo, WA 10 Day Weather

 

7:25 pm PST

Print

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DAY

 

 

 

DESCRIPTION

 

HIGH / LOW

 

PRECIP

 

WIND

 

HUMIDITY

 

 

TONIGHT 

 

NOV 19

 

 

Partly Cloudy

 

--38^°

 

 

10%

 

 

N 6 mph

 

84%

 

 

WED 

 

NOV 20

 

 

Sunny

 

47^°34^°

 

 

10%

 

 

N 5 mph

 

72%

 

 

THU 

 

NOV 21

 

 

Sunny

 

48^°34^°

 

 

10%

 

 

NNE 4 mph

 

67%

 

 

FRI 

 

NOV 22

 

 

Partly Cloudy

 

46^°37^°

 

 

10%

 

 

SSE 4 mph

 

78%

 

 

SAT 

 

NOV 23

 

 

PM Showers

 

47^°43^°

 

 

50%

 

 

SSE 11 mph

 

81%

 

 

SUN 

 

NOV 24

 

 

Showers

 

47^°38^°

 

 

40%

 

 

SW 7 mph

 

84%

 

 

MON 

 

NOV 25

 

 

Showers

 

43^°36^°

 

 

40%

 

 

SE 6 mph

 

84%

 

 

TUE 

 

NOV 26

 

 

Rain/Snow Showers

 

42^°37^°

 

 

50%

 

 

SE 10 mph

 

80%

 

 

WED 

 

NOV 27

 

 

Showers

 

41^°36^°

 

 

40%

 

 

NE 10 mph

 

82%

 

 

THU 

 

NOV 28

 

 

Rain/Snow Showers

 

42^°36^°

 

 

40%

 

 

SSE 8 mph

 

82%

 

 

FRI 

 

NOV 29

 

 

Rain/Snow Showers

 

42^°37^°

 

 

40%

 

 

SSE 7 mph

 

84%

 

 

SAT 

 

NOV 30

 

 

Showers

 

42^°37^°

 

 

50%

 

 

SE 7 mph

 

84%

 

 

SUN 

 

DEC 1

 

 

Showers

 

43^°37^°

 

 

40%

 

 

S 9 mph

 

86%

 

 

MON 

 

DEC 2

 

 

Showers

 

43^°37^°

 

 

50%

 

 

SSE 7 mph

 

83%

 

 

TUE 

 

DEC 3

 

 

Showers

 

42^°36^°

 

 

40%

 

 

SSE 7 mph

 

82%

 

 

Maybe a positive windshield splat in there somewhere.

[Requiem]

That’s a buzzkill, GFS sends the low way down south. Apparently getting a windstorm is harder than getting snow.