November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Guest CulverJosh]

Beautifully cold last night, around 24 or so. East winds shut off completely.

I mean right now.

[seattleweatherguy]

Nonsense.

 

And whether or not this ends up meeting the official criteria is completely irrelevant. Splitting hairs. You can’t wishcast it away.

So hope it snows tomorrow as we don’t know if we can get it again or not this year

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 34F.  Coldest Civil War in a while.

[TT-SEA]

The stations that SEA used to almost always be close to growing up, it's almost always warmer than now.

 

Again...why that station consistently has one of the warmest anomalies in the region almost every month.

 

Obviously there is UHI in effect there... but you just make blanket statements and say its a complete joke without even looking around the area.   

 

SEA is very much line with the surrounding stations today.   As as expected... its a little warmer there than the stations lower than SEA since there is more wind up on the hill.    Its definitely not a "complete joke" today.   That was just wrong.   What should it be there?   35?

 

[Requiem]

I mean right now.

Ah, sorry. I’m guessing around 39, I think we’ve reached our peak for the day.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Ah, sorry. I’m guessing around 39, I think we’ve reached our peak for the day.

Right on. I must say I don’t miss Mt. Scott anymore after seeing how things perform over here.

[ShawniganLake]

Nonsense.

 

And whether or not this ends up meeting the official criteria is completely irrelevant. Splitting hairs. You can’t wishcast it away.

So is there only El Niño or La Niña in your view. No neutral it’s one or the other.

[Timmy Supercell]

So is there only El Niño or La Niña in your view. No neutral it’s one or the other.

 

It's either Super Blob or Jan 1950.

[Blizzard777]

Obviously there is UHI in effect there... but you just make blanket statements and say its a complete joke without even looking around the area.   

 

SEA is very much line with the surrounding stations today.   As as expected... its a little warmer there than the stations lower than SEA since there is more wind up on the hill.    Its definitely not a "complete joke" today.   That was just wrong.   What should it be there?   35?

 

46* on my machine back at home....warm day after such a cool night

[Blizzard777]

Just noticed the wind started to mix things up at 10am

[Blizzard777]

I can't even begin to describe how annoyed I'll be if the NAM verifies for the Puget sound.

I would join you in that emotion 

[Deweydog]

Breezy out!

[Blizzard777]

I am going to do something drastic tonight if we don't see any snow down here.

 

Maybe even smoke part of a marijuana cigarette. 

I can’t do that...hmmmmm

But, I could eat a whole box of fancy donuts....crap!

[luvssnow_spokane]

SEA already up to 43. Complete joke.

 

Looks like OLM also made it down to 16 this morning. That gives them 30 freezes this fall; average is 16.

No joke mid 40’s I Bonney Lake also. East winds, sun and mixing huge factors.

[Blizzard777]

47* now in Federal Way

[Tyler Mode]

Perfectly timed cloud deck in Eugene...holding at 33 there.  Made it up to 47 here for a second, now back to 42 and a gusty east wind.  Bottomed out at 18 this morning, my coldest temp of the year.

[Blizzard777]

Brother in La Pine reporting 27* and light snow while enjoying the game 

must be nice

[Deweydog]

Clouded up here!

 

I’m officially on flake watch!!!

 

Edit: zero so far

[The Swamp]

Clouded up here!

 

I’m officially on flake watch!!!

 

Edit: zero so far

Is it “clouded up here” or “clouded up up here”?

 

So confused.

[Front Ranger]

The Nam snowfall maps include sleet. Unless you choose the Ferrier snow map option, which removes the sleet. But I usually find the Nam, especially the 3km, overdoes precip in general.

 

I've actually found the 3km tends to be more accurate with precip amounts than the low-res NAM.

[Front Ranger]

No joke mid 40’s I Bonney Lake also. East winds, sun and mixing huge factors.

 

This is also like 3 hours after I made that post. SEA was 43 at noon.

 

Tim responded like 4 times to each post I made about it, he doesn't need your help. 

[Timmy]

can someone post the link to the 850mb obs?

[Timmy Supercell]

Snow just started. And it's the windy snow again, winds over 30mph. 

[TT-SEA]

This is also like 3 hours after I made that post. SEA was 43 at noon.

 

Tim responded like 4 times to each post I made about it, he doesn't need your help. 

 

Just admit you were wrong about today.  

 

The wind was mixing things out before noon.   At the same time it was 43 at SEA... it was 45 at UW in Seattle and 44 out here.     The SEA reading was legit and not a "complete joke".   You just don't live in the area and are not aware of what is happening in real time.

[Front Ranger]

18z GFS was an improvement for lowland snow chances over the 12z...

[Deweydog]

This is also like 3 hours after I made that post. SEA was 43 at noon.

 

Tim responded like 4 times to each post I made about it, he doesn't need your help.

You were reaching.

 

Yeah, you can get some mileage out of the whole “Tim is a huge ****** bag” thing but sometimes things just warm up after a cold night.

[Front Ranger]

18z shows a decent amount of precip over the next 7 days.

 

[GHweatherChris]

18z GFS was an improvement for lowland snow chances over the 12z...

And the NWS is pretty much saying meh except hills in SW Washington and Shelton/Hood Canal areas, all models today show 1 to 3 inches here, they have all but removed even rain/snow mix from my pin forecast.

[Front Ranger]

You were reaching.

 

Yeah, you can get some mileage out of the whole “Tim is a huge ****** bag” thing but sometimes things just warm up after a cold night.

 

Either way, SEA has proven itself to be a joke of a station. That statement was no reach.

 

Used to be one of the cooler spots in the Seattle area...now it's reliably one of the warmest.

[TT-SEA]

Either way, SEA has proven itself to be a joke of a station.

 

Used to be one of the cooler spots in the Seattle area...now it's reliably one of the warmest.

 

 

Ahhh... the classic fall back.   You were wrong about today.    SEA was actually right around the temperature you would expect in that location today.  

[ShawniganLake]

I've actually found the 3km tends to be more accurate with precip amounts than the low-res NAM.

You think those 1”+ precip amounts in SW Washington are going to verify?

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the HRRR shows the band of precip moving through at 7 a.m. tomorrow:

 

 

Its already lifted north by noon...

 

 

And show what is likely rain near the coast by late afternoon...

 

 

 

 

That does not look like a real wet day... I am leaning towards the light totals shown the ECMWF.

[Deweydog]

Either way, SEA has proven itself to be a joke of a station. That statement was no reach.

 

Used to be one of the cooler spots in the Seattle area...now it's reliably one of the warmest.

Sometimes basic meteorological phenomenon and jokey stations collide. Crusader beware!!!

[ShawniganLake]

And the NWS is pretty much saying meh except hills in SW Washington and Shelton/Hood Canal areas, all models today show 1 to 3 inches here, they have all but removed even rain/snow mix from my pin forecast.

[GHweatherChris]

E7D0AB36-1B2A-40C2-A2D8-5EF750E48709.png

That shows about an inch, all individual models show more than that.

[Cloud]

Obviously the NAM was the most aggressive for snow totals for Sunday morning. Take the medium, so I’m thinking up to an inch at best for Seattle.

[TT-SEA]

18Z ECMWF at 7 a.m.

 

 

 

And then at 11 a.m.

 

[TT-SEA]

Light gray on the ECMWF is usually nothing or just a little snow in the air...

 

[ShawniganLake]

That shows about an inch, all individual models show more than that.

Okay. That is a blend of the models used by the NWS.

[TT-SEA]

Temps at 6 a.m.

 

 

 

And at 9 a.m...

 

 

 

And at noon...