Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023

[Meatyorologist]

haha, wow

[Phil]

8 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Never said anything about relating to average. Just the coldest since.

We've really departed in the last decade, climatologically speaking. A genuinely cold summer would soak the hearts of many here, especially the transplants.

I mean even a bonafide cool summer will happen at some point. The normal distribution of climatological average temperature has shifted to the right, but not nearly enough to preclude a “cool” summer.

The problem has been the interdecadal mode of circulation/seasonality over the last decade (since 2013), which has focused some of the warmest boreal summer anomalies in the PNW/W-Canada region.

These intra/inter-decadal system states don’t persist for too long, peak amplitude at that (not stationary) frequency is usually 8-15 years, with state dependence more prominent in early/late stages.

At some point it will end, probably sooner rather than later. In fact, a super niño is probably the easiest way to do it.  

[Slushy Inch]

17 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

haha, wow

A measly 3.7k cape

[Phil]

19 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

haha, wow

NAM is often biased high with low level moisture. That’s almost certainly overdone.

GFS has the opposite problem. Overdoes mixing/BL drying.

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

NAM is often biased high with low level moisture. That’s almost certainly overdone.

GFS has the opposite problem. Overdoes mixing/BL drying.

I’ve noticed it over does CAPE as well.

[Seattle]

In isolation, the weather today was summer perfection. Too bad it's another record hot [fill in the statistic], after an endless decade of them.

Still had a fantastic time floating on Lake Washington with friends. The water was definitely chilly, but manageable with the strong afternoon sun to balance. Rainier & the Cascades were spectacular; it was honestly a little jarring to see the mountains so snow covered.

[Meatyorologist]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

NAM is often biased high with low level moisture. That’s almost certainly overdone.

GFS has the opposite problem. Overdoes mixing/BL drying.

I know, but I love looking at the pretty graphs and imagining sweet nothings of what could be, if only...

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

I’ve noticed it over does CAPE as well.

It has projected a 90+ degree dewpoint here a couple of times over the years. I mean sure this climate can give the Florida Everglades a run for its money sometimes, but it ain’t Dubai.  

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

How hot is too hot for @Cascadia_Wx?

Probably 65-70°F for Jesse, and 212°F for Tim.

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA beat daily record from 2018 by 1 degree... 89 there today.

Thats gotta be low hanging fruit?

[Anti Marine Layer]

The fun will be over for Newport tomorrow. 

[SnowySeeker50]

High of 93 today. Currently 84 degrees

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Edited May 15 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I know, but I love looking at the pretty graphs and imagining sweet nothings of what could be, if only...

I feel that.

FWIW, we’re as due for a dud severe season as you guys are for a dud winter. Maybe even more-so. Since the new NPAC regime started in 2013 we’ve had the perfect midsummer pattern for big-daddy convection almost each year. Only “dud” year was 2016 (which was a trash summer and trash autumn followed by a trash winter..just a trashy period in general ).

El Niño summers are almost always awesome in the severe department here, so my hunch is 2024 is when karma will finally catch up in a big way. Fully expect a 2016-repeat on steroids…massive ridging and scant convection throughout.

Or maybe I’m wishcasting and it will be this summer. Lol. Who in the hell knows at this point.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Phil said:

I feel that.

FWIW, we’re as due for a dud severe season as you guys are for a dud winter. Maybe even more-so. Since the new NPAC regime started in 2013 we’ve had the perfect midsummer pattern for big-daddy convection almost each year. Only “dud” year was 2016 (which was a trash summer and trash autumn followed by a trash winter..just a trashy period in general ).

El Niño summers are almost always awesome in the severe department here, so my hunch is 2024 is when karma will finally catch up in a big way. Fully expect a 2016-repeat on steroids…massive ridging and scant convection throughout.

Or maybe I’m wishcasting and it will be this summer. Lol. Who in the hell knows at this point.

We're getting your summertime environment tomorrow, maybe you'll get our perma-capped ridgefest!

[AlTahoe]

1 hour ago, Jakewestsalem said:

Daughter is in Lake Tahoe and it is raw and rainy. She is amazed at the snowman is around the area

Beautiful day till about 12:30pm. Then cold and rainy the rest of the day.

[GHweatherChris]

KHQM broke their all time May high temp record yesterday, and then decided eff it, let's break that one today.  Mid 90's here both days.  Top tier event for sure out this way, maybe not as anomalous as June 2021, but D**n impressive. 

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

We're getting your summertime environment tomorrow, maybe you'll get our perma-capped ridgefest!

Haha. Well if ridging must exist somewhere I’d rather it stay out there. Still have nightmares about 2011, which sucked donkey taint on all levels. Didn’t have a single storm meet severe criteria here, mid level lapse rates were consistently shitty under that perma-ridge. Only a couple storms delivered close CTG lightning.

Also was in an anti-precip dome in 2011, got like 3” all summer until hurricane Irene at the end of August. Lots of tree damage from that because of drought stress.

Would even take another 2022/23 winter if it meant avoiding a 2011 (et al) repeat.

[lowlandsnow]

3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

KHQM broke their all time May high temp record yesterday, and then decided eff it, let's break that one today.  Mid 90's here both days.  Top tier event for sure out this way, maybe not as anomalous as June 2021, but D**n impressive. 

Totally different at Seatac high of 89 today had been reached as early as April 16th back in 2016. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

First official heatwave of the year for PDX. Still haven’t hit any 80s yet this month. Could get there tomorrow.

 

[Meatyorologist]

Congratulations, soldiers. We fought the good fight today and won. KSEA managed to avoid 90F today. That's worth a cold beer on the porch.

[GHweatherChris]

6 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Totally different at Seatac high of 89 today had been reached as early as April 16th back in 2016. 

Significantly different locales and proximities to certain affecting components.

[GHweatherChris]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

Haha. Well if ridging must exist somewhere I’d rather it stay out there. Still have nightmares about 2011, which sucked donkey taint on all levels. Didn’t have a single storm meet severe criteria here, mid level lapse rates were consistently shitty under that perma-ridge. Only a couple storms delivered close CTG lightning.

Also was in an anti-precip dome in 2011, got like 3” all summer until hurricane Irene at the end of August. Lots of tree damage from that because of drought stress.

Would even take another 2022/23 winter if it meant avoiding a 2011 (et al) repeat.

How do you know all the levels of donkey taint, that's the big question here?

[Meatyorologist]

Even the GFS has that dawg in it.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Even the GFS has that dawg in it.

If the dryFS is on board with convection it’s usually a safe bet.

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Even the GFS has that dawg in it.

No colors over my house. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Max of 88˚F here. Too hot!

Reed Timmer successfully intercepted another tornado on Friday.

 

[RentonHill]

50 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Congratulations, soldiers. We fought the good fight today and won. KSEA managed to avoid 90F today. That's worth a cold beer on the porch.

Me who drank a whole bottle of wine after avoiding 90

[Slushy Inch]

45 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Even the GFS has that dawg in it.

Certainly an up trend on this run.

[bainbridgekid]

What's SEA's record for consecutive 75 degree days in May? I know their record for 80+ is four which they're going to shatter but it looks like they'll also probably have 10 straight at least 75 which seems just as crazy.

[Cold Snap]

Still 76.7 at 10pm.

[Slushy Inch]

I like this 0z hrrr. Some places will get lucky. But a lot of us should be able to see lightning.

[the_convergence_zone]

4 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

That 18z RGEM is actually really intriguing. It shows what looks like an outflow driven convective band from the SSW. Modest shear means fast tower buildups, if skies can remain clear.

Very unusual convective meteorology on display tomorrow for western WA and OR. More akin to a continental climate.

Absolutely fascinating event. It looks like the majority of the good activity tomorrow is going to blow up on sea breeze boundaries — along the I-5 corridor from Olympia south and also in the east sound before propagating toward the Sound. If I was chasing this I would hang out in Thurston county. 

[ShawniganLake]

Weather summary
for British Columbia
issued by Environment Canada
at 5:37 p.m. PDT Sunday 14 May 2023.

Discussion.

The following areas will have set or tied a daily maximum 
temperature record on May 14, 2023: 

Abbotsford Area (Abbotsford A) 
Preliminary new record of 33.6 
Old record of 32.8 set in 1973 
Records in this area have been kept since 1944 

Agassiz Area (Agassiz RCS) 
Preliminary new record of 34.5 
Old record of 33.3 set in 1912 
Records in this area have been kept since 1889 

Bella Bella Area (Bella Bella) 
Preliminary new record of 30.7 
Old record of 26.0 set in 2016 
Records in this area have been kept since 1977 

Blue River Area (Blue River CS) 
Preliminary new record of 30.9 
Old record of 29.6 set in 1993 
Records in this area have been kept since 1946 

Burns Lake Area (Burns Lake Decker Lake) 
Preliminary new record of 30.4 
Old record of 29.4 set in 1973 
Records in this area have been kept since 1949 

Cache Creek Area (Ashcroft) 
Preliminary new record of 34.2 
Old record of 33.9 set in 2018 
Records in this area have been kept since 1944 

Clearwater Area (Clearwater Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 33.9 
Old record of 33.3 set in 1924 
Records in this area have been kept since 1913 

Clinton Area (Clinton RCS) 
Preliminary new record of 28.3 
Old record of 28.1 set in 2018 
Records in this area have been kept since 1974 

Comox Area (Comox A) 
Preliminary new record of 31.9 
Old record of 25.6 set in 1949 
Records in this area have been kept since 1914 

Dawson Creek Area (Dawson Creek A) 
Preliminary new record of 31.1 
Old record of 29.4 set in 1973 
Records in this area have been kept since 1926 

Estevan Point Area (Estevan Point CS) 
Preliminary new record of 23.7 
Old record of 21.1 set in 1973 
Records in this area have been kept since 1908 

Hope Area (Hope Airport) 
Preliminary new record of 34.9 
Old record of 32.8 set in 1973 
Records in this area have been kept since 1936 

Kelowna Area (Kelowna UBCO) 
Preliminary new record of 31.9 
Old record of 30.2 set in 2018 
Records in this area have been kept since 1899 

Lillooet Area (Lillooet) 
Preliminary new record of 34.9 
Old record of 33.3 set in 1924 
Records in this area have been kept since 1917 

Lytton Area (Lytton RCS) 
Preliminary new record of 34.8 
Old record of 33.9 set in 1973 
Records in this area have been kept since 1921 

Mackenzie Area (Mackenzie Airport Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 30.7 
Old record of 28.3 set in 1973 
Records in this area have been kept since 1971 

Malahat Area (Malahat) 
Preliminary new record of 28.9 
Old record of 26.7 set in 2018 
Records in this area have been kept since 1986 

Nakusp Area (Nakusp CS) 
Preliminary new record of 29.1 
Old record of 28.1 set in 1993 
Records in this area have been kept since 1966 

Nelson Area (Nelson CS) 
Preliminary new record of 29.9 
Old record of 29.4 set in 1912 
Records in this area have been kept since 1904 

Pemberton Area (Pemberton Airport CS) 
Preliminary new record of 35.0 
Old record of 34.0 set in 2018 
Records in this area have been kept since 1908 

Pitt Meadows Area (Pitt Meadows CS) 
Preliminary new record of 32.3 
Old record of 32.2 set in 1973 
Records in this area have been kept since 1874 

Port Alberni Area (Port Alberni (AUT)) 
Currently tied record of 32.8 set in 1939 
Records in this area have been kept since 1900 

Port Hardy Area (Port Hardy A) 
Preliminary new record of 26.3 
Old record of 25.6 set in 1973 
Records in this area have been kept since 1944 

Powell River Area (Powell River) 
Preliminary new record of 29.5 
Old record of 27.8 set in 1973 
Records in this area have been kept since 1924 

Revelstoke Area (Revelstoke Airport Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 31.7 
Old record of 31.1 set in 1939 
Records in this area have been kept since 1898 

Sechelt Area (Sechelt Aut) 
Preliminary new record of 30.5 
Old record of 26.7 set in 1973 
Records in this area have been kept since 1956 

Squamish Area (Squamish Airport) 
Preliminary new record of 35.8 
Old record of 29.2 set in 2018 
Records in this area have been kept since 1960 

Vernon Area (Vernon Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 31.6 
Old record of 30.0 set in 1924 
Records in this area have been kept since 1900 

Victoria Harbour Area (Victoria Gonzales CS) 
Preliminary new record of 30.7 
Old record of 27.8 set in 1912 
Records in this area have been kept since 1874 

West Vancouver Area (West Vancouver Aut) 
Preliminary new record of 31.7 
Old record of 27.6 set in 2018 
Records in this area have been kept since 1976 

Whistler Area (Whistler - Nesters) 
Preliminary new record of 31.1 
Old record of 28.9 set in 1973 
Records in this area have been kept since 1950 

White Rock Area (White Rock Campbell Scientific) 
Preliminary new record of 29.3 
Old record of 26.1 set in 1939 
Records in this area have been kept since 1929 

Yoho (National Park) Area (Yoho Park) 
Preliminary new record of 28.6 
Old record of 26.7 set in 1924 
Records in this area have been kept since 1923 

[SouthHillFrosty]

We still doing happy hour on Tuesday bois?

[Hawksfan2008]

Enjoy tomorrow everyone! These opportunities are rare around here. Taking the day off work to enjoy it. Huge potential. 

[Phil]

Euro weeklies (valid 5/11) have below average highs returning to Seattle during mid-June. Kind of just melds into climo.

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Congratulations, soldiers. We fought the good fight today and won. KSEA managed to avoid 90F today. That's worth a cold beer on the porch.

NWS is going with 88 tomorrow...ripe for underachieving that if the convection can get going by early afternoon.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Euro weeklies have below average highs returning to Seattle during mid-June. Kind of just melds into climo.

And the inverse here. Next 3 weeks look perfect, then the dreaded Tim weather starts week-4.

[Ken in Wood Village]

There is a couple of showers on the East slopes of the Cascades. It's barely noticeable. 

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

And the inverse here. Next 3 weeks look perfect, then the dreaded Tim weather starts week-4.

I know you've mentioned the 1957 analog a number of times...was looking into it this evening, and that was the wettest May on record for DEN with 7.31". And after the deluge last week, May 2023 is running much wetter than normal - top 10 is basically a lock with half the month remaining, and top 5 looks very doable.

[Slushy Inch]

Nice up trend. Things get crazy by 2pm.

[Ken in Wood Village]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Nice up trend. Things get crazy by 2pm.

Is there any chance you can include Oregon instead of focusing on just the Seattle area? 

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I know you've mentioned the 1957 analog a number of times...was looking into it this evening, and that was the wettest May on record for DEN with 7.31". And after the deluge last week, May 2023 is running much wetter than normal - top 10 is basically a lock with half the month remaining, and top 5 looks very doable.

Ha, that’s interesting indeed. Yeah 1957 sticks out to me in enough ways that I have to consider in an analog pool. Even seems the MJO/dAAMt cycle(s) are aligned, which is fascinating.

Not a fan of old years generally speaking but it’s impossible not to consider it this time around. Probably the best all-around match.

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Is there any chance you can include Oregon instead of focusing on just the Seattle area? 

I figure you can go on weather.us yourself it’s a free site. Doesn’t look as significant in Oregon. But I guess I could post closeups of PDX too in each post. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

I figure you can on weather.us yourself it’s a free site.

When I post stuff, I try to include the PNW not just for myself unless it's just one area that is having action. I thought this site is to help everyone, not just myself. 

Now, the low is crossing Oregon now. You can see the center almost in the center of Oregon. 

[Doinko]

9 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Is there any chance you can include Oregon instead of focusing on just the Seattle area? 

Looks like some pretty good storms develop

 

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

When I post stuff, I try to include the PNW not just for myself unless it's just one area that is having action. I thought this site is to help everyone, not just myself. 

Now, the low is crossing Oregon now. You can see the center almost in the center of Oregon. 

If someone wants to post about  Oregon weather I would be interested in that. But I don’t expect Oregon people to post about Washington too often.

[Ken in Wood Village]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Looks like some pretty good storms develop

 

Thank you

[Ken in Wood Village]

On the Pendleton radar, you can see some small showers. The one thing that interests me is they are individual showers. Just like what the mid-west and Central Plains would see with supercell thunderstorms. Not saying that is what is happening. But what could be interesting is these showers building into individual thunderstorms instead of a big cluster of thunderstorms. That's if they build into thunderstorms. It also looks like there is a lot of shear at the higher levels because you can see the top of the shower stretching out. 

[Slushy Inch]

26 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

On the Pendleton radar, you can see some small showers. The one thing that interests me is they are individual showers. Just like what the mid-west and Central Plains would see with supercell thunderstorms. Not saying that is what is happening. But what could be interesting is these showers building into individual thunderstorms instead of a big cluster of thunderstorms. That's if they build into thunderstorms. It also looks like there is a lot of shear at the higher levels because you can see the top of the shower stretching out. 

I think it’s the multi-cell lines that we almost never get around here.