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Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023


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18 minutes ago, Phil said:

I remember the “super niño” hype in 2014, thought it was ridiculous at the time and indeed it turned out to be. But it was for different reasons than this year..the manner in which this El Niño is developing is so wildly different than 2014 I wouldn’t even reference it outside the context of how wholly inadequate seasonal/climate models are at projecting ENSO.

Again this year, such “super niño” rhetoric is largely hype, yes. Healthy El Niño is likely, but these model solutions with +1.5°C by July/August are just cuckoo IMO.

1.2 will stay up there but gonna be a struggle for 3.4 to get there by fall let alone summer.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

1.2 will stay up there but gonna be a struggle for 3.4 to get there by fall let alone summer.

Yeah seems we’ll continue to build the +SSTAs in niño 1.2/3 (and eventually 3.4) but this clearly isn’t a west-pacific initiated event.

Literally none of the post-1976 (pacific climate shift) super niños have evolved this way. None. We’re literally talking a half-century since the last super niño arising via similar conduits in the Pacific (and the IO/Atlantic were still out of phase with 2023, lol). So either we’re miraculously going back to the 1950s-60s type evolution, and/or models are over-bullish on the ENSO warming. Maybe it’s both to some extent? Have no clue what (if any) effect the stratospheric H2O from Tonga is having.

FWIW, it’s my personal belief the 1972/73 super niño is what actually marked the beginning of the 1970s climate shift, as the -NAO era abruptly ended (or changed structure, technically) after that event. These strong/super niños often mark decadal-scale shifts in aspects of the general circulation, especially the EPAC El Niños. 1997/98, 1972/73, and 1957/58 all did so.

Too early to say if the same will hold true of 2023/24. If this does end up a strong/super niño event, it will be an interesting case study for sure.

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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36 minutes ago, Phil said:

It only snows at Tim’s house when it’s above freezing. And it only rains when it’s sunny.

😀

The VAST majority of our snow falls here with a temp between 30-33.  I think 32.5 is the most common temp when snow is falling.   It's uncanny how often it works that way.  Other people have also made this observation... like @bainbridgekid.   It's definitely a PNW thing.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

😀

The VAST majority of our snow falls here with a temp between 30-32.   Other people have also made this observation... like @bainbridgekid.   It's definitely a PNW thing.   

Just messing with you brotha.

The vast majority of our 0.5” seasonal total in 2022/23 also fell whilst above freezing. 😆 Thank gawd El Niño is finally back.

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

That would be impressive for May. Doesn't look like Palmer has ever done more than two 90+ in a row in May.

To this point... it rocketed upward into the low 70s here before 9:30 a.m. but its still only 75 now.   Sometimes offshore flow makes for warm mornings but not necessarily record hot afternoons.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Crazy we are getting this hot stretch so early in the season.  The past record was a high of 93F in May for Seattle back in 1963 and a stretch of 3 days above 80.  

 

Here is the forecast for Everett.  Hot, I don't like it.  But not nearly as hot as Seattle and other parts of Western WA.

 

Screen Shot 2023-05-12 at 11.21.41 AM.png

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12Z ECMWF keeps the ULL to south as well... but shows lightning for most everyone on Monday afternoon.    Also shows another blow up mainly east of the mountains on Tuesday.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-lightning_density_last6-4195200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_6hr_inch-4195200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Excessive heat watch has been downgraded to a heat advisory. Though I’m not really sure if it’s a downgrade because it was a watch but at least it’s not becoming an excessive heat warning.

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2024 Warm Season Stats

Number of 80+ days - 4

Number of 85+ days - 3 (Warmest so far - 86)

Number of 90+ days - 0

Number of 95+ days - 0

Number of 60+ lows - 0

 

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17 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Crazy we are getting this hot stretch so early in the season.  The past record was a high of 93F in May for Seattle back in 1963 and a stretch of 3 days above 80.  

 

Here is the forecast for Everett.  Hot, I don't like it.  But not nearly as hot as Seattle and other parts of Western WA.

 

Screen Shot 2023-05-12 at 11.21.41 AM.png

 

July 1963.....

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13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

July 1963.....

Looks very pleasant.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Well though I would love to have a progression like 1972-73, I will note August 1972 was a bit of a furnace.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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42 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Whatever the record for 80 degree days in a row is in May, I think it will be broken.

The record for total number of 80 degree days in May is 7 at Sea-Tac airport from 1958, but they did not come consecutively. In recent decades the most is 5 in May. The record for consecutive days of 80+ appears to be 4 at Sea-Tac from 1993. That's the only instance I can find of 4 in a row. 

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10 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The record for total number of 80 degree days in May is 7 at Sea-Tac airport from 1958, but they did not come consecutively. In recent decades the most is 5 in May. The record for consecutive days of 80+ appears to be 4 at Sea-Tac from 1993. That's the only instance I can find of 4 in a row. 

#TimIsScrewed #TT-SEAabouttobeTT-PSC

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47 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Wow this is incredible duration. I can’t recall this ever happening in May.image.thumb.png.974f53d46ea908e82041f2f21a3f48a0.png

FWIW... 12Z EPS agrees at day 10.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-4756800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Nice day for ZoOM in the park. 

3FDABB4F-E52C-49D2-94F4-A2D8D50FEC1D.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Doesn’t mean much but this is end of EPS.image.thumb.png.0fceb4671c778474bc66f166cbbfcfcf.png

GFS keeps showing blue at the end of its run, and @Phil keeps promising that this ridging is going to end when June hits. 

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PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice day for ZoOM in the park. 

3FDABB4F-E52C-49D2-94F4-A2D8D50FEC1D.jpeg

9B9933F7-4BC2-4A70-A46E-554D63C06880.jpeg

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A648443F-5C2C-4680-99D1-67C067AB6C3A.jpeg

Those trees are oddly bare.   I think it was farther along at Snoqualmie Pass when we through there last weekend.    Must be warmer in my area than in your area.  

20230512_144830.jpg

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6 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Lol, Sat-Monday will be in the 90s (unless Monday gets cooled by a Tstorm)

Monday should be cooler.   It's in the mid 80s at all the stations out here now.   It's pretty toasty but still not as warm as it was on 4/28.

Screenshot_20230512-150552_Chrome.jpg

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Water temp on Lake Sammamish up to 63... went up 3 degrees since yesterday.   Should be into upper 60s by early next week.   Maybe 70 by the end of the week.

 

Screenshot_20230512-152016_Chrome.jpg

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Up to 79.6 for the day. Still have yet to get the first 80 IMBY. Could still happen today but will definitely happen tomorrow.

2024 Warm Season Stats

Number of 80+ days - 4

Number of 85+ days - 3 (Warmest so far - 86)

Number of 90+ days - 0

Number of 95+ days - 0

Number of 60+ lows - 0

 

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8 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Up to 79.6 for the day. Still have yet to get the first 80 IMBY. Could still happen today but will definitely happen tomorrow.

Your area is definitely protected from the east wind.    Hard to believe it didn't get to 80 there on 4/28 when it was in the upper 80s in the Snoqualmie Valley.  

Looks like SEA notched another 80+ day today.  North Bend has been stuck at 85 for a couple hours.    Must have maxed out the potential for today. 

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