Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023

[BLI snowman]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

I remember the “super niño” hype in 2014, thought it was ridiculous at the time and indeed it turned out to be. But it was for different reasons than this year..the manner in which this El Niño is developing is so wildly different than 2014 I wouldn’t even reference it outside the context of how wholly inadequate seasonal/climate models are at projecting ENSO.

Again this year, such “super niño” rhetoric is largely hype, yes. Healthy El Niño is likely, but these model solutions with +1.5°C by July/August are just cuckoo IMO.

1.2 will stay up there but gonna be a struggle for 3.4 to get there by fall let alone summer.

[BLI snowman]

Pretty iffy again on that distant ULL being enough of a trigger for us lowlanders on Monday, but I suspect a couple of scattered rounds will pop off. Too bad it's so hard to effectively chase thunderstorms in the Cascades.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

1.2 will stay up there but gonna be a struggle for 3.4 to get there by fall let alone summer.

Yeah seems we’ll continue to build the +SSTAs in niño 1.2/3 (and eventually 3.4) but this clearly isn’t a west-pacific initiated event.

Literally none of the post-1976 (pacific climate shift) super niños have evolved this way. None. We’re literally talking a half-century since the last super niño arising via similar conduits in the Pacific (and the IO/Atlantic were still out of phase with 2023, lol). So either we’re miraculously going back to the 1950s-60s type evolution, and/or models are over-bullish on the ENSO warming. Maybe it’s both to some extent? Have no clue what (if any) effect the stratospheric H2O from Tonga is having.

FWIW, it’s my personal belief the 1972/73 super niño is what actually marked the beginning of the 1970s climate shift, as the -NAO era abruptly ended (or changed structure, technically) after that event. These strong/super niños often mark decadal-scale shifts in aspects of the general circulation, especially the EPAC El Niños. 1997/98, 1972/73, and 1957/58 all did so.

Too early to say if the same will hold true of 2023/24. If this does end up a strong/super niño event, it will be an interesting case study for sure.

[TT-SEA]

36 minutes ago, Phil said:

It only snows at Tim’s house when it’s above freezing. And it only rains when it’s sunny.

The VAST majority of our snow falls here with a temp between 30-33.  I think 32.5 is the most common temp when snow is falling.   It's uncanny how often it works that way.  Other people have also made this observation... like @bainbridgekid.   It's definitely a PNW thing.   

[Phil]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

The VAST majority of our snow falls here with a temp between 30-32.   Other people have also made this observation... like @bainbridgekid.   It's definitely a PNW thing.   

Just messing with you brotha.

The vast majority of our 0.5” seasonal total in 2022/23 also fell whilst above freezing. Thank gawd El Niño is finally back.

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

That would be impressive for May. Doesn't look like Palmer has ever done more than two 90+ in a row in May.

To this point... it rocketed upward into the low 70s here before 9:30 a.m. but its still only 75 now.   Sometimes offshore flow makes for warm mornings but not necessarily record hot afternoons.  

[NWbyNW]

Crazy we are getting this hot stretch so early in the season.  The past record was a high of 93F in May for Seattle back in 1963 and a stretch of 3 days above 80.  

 

Here is the forecast for Everett.  Hot, I don't like it.  But not nearly as hot as Seattle and other parts of Western WA.

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF keeps the ULL to south as well... but shows lightning for most everyone on Monday afternoon.    Also shows another blow up mainly east of the mountains on Tuesday.  

[Slushy Inch]

Heat is quite extended on new Euro.

[Cold Snap]

Excessive heat watch has been downgraded to a heat advisory. Though I’m not really sure if it’s a downgrade because it was a watch but at least it’s not becoming an excessive heat warning.

[Slushy Inch]

Whatever the record for 80 degree days in a row is in May, I think it will be broken.

[BLI snowman]

17 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Crazy we are getting this hot stretch so early in the season.  The past record was a high of 93F in May for Seattle back in 1963 and a stretch of 3 days above 80.  

 

Here is the forecast for Everett.  Hot, I don't like it.  But not nearly as hot as Seattle and other parts of Western WA.

 

 

July 1963.....

[Omegaraptor]

One of these forecasts is for Portland, Oregon. One is for Marrakesh, Morocco. Which is which?

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

July 1963.....

Looks very pleasant.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well though I would love to have a progression like 1972-73, I will note August 1972 was a bit of a furnace.

[Slushy Inch]

Wow this is incredible duration. I can’t recall this ever happening in May.

[the_convergence_zone]

42 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Whatever the record for 80 degree days in a row is in May, I think it will be broken.

The record for total number of 80 degree days in May is 7 at Sea-Tac airport from 1958, but they did not come consecutively. In recent decades the most is 5 in May. The record for consecutive days of 80+ appears to be 4 at Sea-Tac from 1993. That's the only instance I can find of 4 in a row. 

[Phishy Wx]

25 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Wow this is incredible duration. I can’t recall this ever happening in May.

just wait until it happens in April!!!

[Omegaraptor]

10 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The record for total number of 80 degree days in May is 7 at Sea-Tac airport from 1958, but they did not come consecutively. In recent decades the most is 5 in May. The record for consecutive days of 80+ appears to be 4 at Sea-Tac from 1993. That's the only instance I can find of 4 in a row. 

#TimIsScrewed #TT-SEAabouttobeTT-PSC

[Slushy Inch]

10 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

just wait until it happens in April!!!

Noooo!

[TT-SEA]

47 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Wow this is incredible duration. I can’t recall this ever happening in May.

FWIW... 12Z EPS agrees at day 10.

[the_convergence_zone]

13 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

#TimIsScrewed #TT-SEAabouttobeTT-PSC

Whoops I meant to type 1963 for that record of 4 straight. 

[MossMan]

Simply gorgeous right now!! 

[SnowySeeker50]

Currently 77 degrees

[Phishy Wx]

gorgeous here too

76

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice day for ZoOM in the park. 

[Slushy Inch]

Doesn’t mean much but this is end of EPS.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Doesn’t mean much but this is end of EPS.

GFS keeps showing blue at the end of its run, and @Phil keeps promising that this ridging is going to end when June hits. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

9 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

GFS keeps showing blue at the end of its run, and @Phil keeps promising that this ridging is going to end when June hits. 

Southern "Cool"-ifornia has some blue. Must be a MASSIVE eddy.

[Phishy Wx]

Great. Magenta Heat dome right over Spokane.  oof

[Hawksfan2008]

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice day for ZoOM in the park. 

Those trees are oddly bare.   I think it was farther along at Snoqualmie Pass when we through there last weekend.    Must be warmer in my area than in your area.  

[TT-SEA]

Currently 85 in North Bend and 84 here.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Currently 85 in North Bend and 84 here.

Lol, Sat-Monday will be in the 90s (unless Monday gets cooled by a Tstorm)

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

My house has hit the highest temp of the year so far today...74

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Lol, Sat-Monday will be in the 90s (unless Monday gets cooled by a Tstorm)

Monday should be cooler.   It's in the mid 80s at all the stations out here now.   It's pretty toasty but still not as warm as it was on 4/28.

[TT-SEA]

Water temp on Lake Sammamish up to 63... went up 3 degrees since yesterday.   Should be into upper 60s by early next week.   Maybe 70 by the end of the week.

 

[MossMan]

79 with a breeze outside, 72 inside. 

[Cold Snap]

Up to 79.6 for the day. Still have yet to get the first 80 IMBY. Could still happen today but will definitely happen tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Up to 79.6 for the day. Still have yet to get the first 80 IMBY. Could still happen today but will definitely happen tomorrow.

Your area is definitely protected from the east wind.    Hard to believe it didn't get to 80 there on 4/28 when it was in the upper 80s in the Snoqualmie Valley.  

Looks like SEA notched another 80+ day today.  North Bend has been stuck at 85 for a couple hours.    Must have maxed out the potential for today.