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Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023


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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Yikes. That looks like there could be some light rain in Othello.

Nowhere to run?!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure I believe the GFS with that second low diving down so deeply.   The 12Z GEM looks quite different on that same day with the second trough being pulled up into Canada rather than diving down the west coast.    The EPS is leaning that way too.    We will see. 

gem-all-namer-z500_anom-5199600.png

I agree, looks like we are going to be perpetually trapped in a split flow regime with weak jet forcing. That pattern guarantees boring weather for us no matter what time of year it occurs. At least it won't be hot and it might rain a bit. 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Can't tell yet in the Seattle area due to low clouds... but the view from Bellingham where there are no low clouds shows that the high level smoke is gone and the sky is deep blue again.

Screenshot_20230519-084722_Chrome.jpg

Hey Tim, will you shut up about the rain, I mean its only...oh s**t, nvm.

Carry on. 

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So it looks like I’ll be visiting Seattle for a few days during the third week of July. 🥳 Hopefully I won’t trigger a death ridge by doing so.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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50 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I agree, looks like we are going to be perpetually trapped in a split flow regime with weak jet forcing. That pattern guarantees boring weather for us no matter what time of year it occurs. At least it won't be hot and it might rain a bit. 

I’d much prefer split flow this time of year than in the winter months.

2024 Warm Season Stats

Number of 80+ days - 2

Number of 85+ days - 2 (Warmest so far - 86)

Number of 90+ days - 0

Number of 95+ days - 0

Number of 60+ lows - 0

 

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2 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

I’d much prefer split flow this time of year than in the winter months.

Well there will likely be plenty of split flow this winter as well. Though I’m not buying into the “super niño” idea, in which case it shouldn’t be perpetual.

Either way I’m just thankful we’re leaving this 3yr niña behind. I want real winters again.

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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We had about 6 weeks of split flow this past winter. Seems like its an annual occurrence these days regardless of ENSO status.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

1952-53 is the GOAT when it comes to split flow hell.

PDX hasn't even been able to top that January for warmth. 

YET...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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46 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We had about 6 weeks of split flow this past winter. Seems like it’s an annual occurrence these days regardless of ENSO status.

Yeah this past January was basically a super niño pattern. Except the niña residuals kept it from performing here.

Glad to leave 2022/23 in the dustbin of history.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

PDX hasn't even been able to top that January for warmth. 

YET...

Wonder if by the 2001-30 normals January will be the warmest month of the winter in some parts of the PNW.

Can't be many places above the Tropic of Cancer where that holds true.

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Tim hasn’t posted the 12z euro yet so I assume it’s trended cooler/wetter than 00z.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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3 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

I love Chicago too.  I don't see Seattle being bad,  spent a couple weekends right downtown for concerts in April.  also there for Biz 3-4 times a year.  Seems fine to me.  sure it has some homeless.  what city of that size doesn't?

I don't go to Portland as often (twice a year) and stay in the Pearl area.  seems fine.

I haven't been to Seattle since 2019 so I do not have any personal observations to share, though my wife was there about a month ago and said it was much worse than when we had been there in 2019. Both PDX and Seattle have probably recovered a bit from the riotous summer of 2020, when I went through downtown PDX in August 2020 it looked like the set of some kind of post apocalyptic movie. 

Overall, I think we have been largely desensitized to the open air drug markets and houselessness. I think our leaders are trying, I have been impressed with Governor Kotek's focus on housing, but in the end as is often the case in our country instead of tackling the root of the problems, we treat the symptoms.  

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Phil said:

Tim hasn’t posted the 12z euro yet so I assume it’s trended cooler/wetter than 00z.

Or he's really busy with his WORK. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Or he's really busy with his WORK. 

I was busy!     Definitely trended towards GFS.  We will see if it holds. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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32 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I haven't been to Seattle since 2019 so I do not have any personal observations to share, though my wife was there about a month ago and said it was much worse than when we had been there in 2019. Both PDX and Seattle have probably recovered a bit from the riotous summer of 2020, when I went through downtown PDX in August 2020 it looked like the set of some kind of post apocalyptic movie. 

Overall, I think we have been largely desensitized to the open air drug markets and houselessness. I think our leaders are trying, I have been impressed with Governor Kotek's focus on housing, but in the end as is often the case in our country instead of tackling the root of the problems, we treat the symptoms.  

The mayor of Seattle has made it his top priority to clean the city up and the results are showing.    Voters spoke.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

1952-53 is the GOAT when it comes to split flow hell.

I think of January 1953 at least as quite consolidated, actually. Very zonal across the CONUS and frigid up north.

I think of 2004-05 as being sort of the benchmark for split flow. 1940-41 if you want to go way back. Most Ninos have it in abundance by mid January.

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The mayor of Seattle has made it his top priority to clean the city up and the results are showing.    Voters spoke.

It's largely a visibility issue -- the high-traffic and tourism areas have been cleaned up. The actual number of people experiencing homelessness is probably about the same as pre-pandemic. It does matter though, you want the high traffic areas with tourists to look nice. I will say that I was skeptical of the constant sweeping of RVs but the number of really egregious situations has noticeably decreased in my neck of the woods and the overall numbers seem to have gone down. I would argue that the city as whole was never actually dangerous like portrayed by the media, but visibility and perception matter so it's good that people are realizing that it's fine to visit. Population is continuing to grow and there are still dozens of cranes with new developments, so the outlook for the city is pretty good. 

The commute patterns are really weird right now especially after the Amazon RTO, traffic is insane on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, worse than pre-pandemic. Other days it's still pretty light. I'm glad I don't commute. I don't know how you manage things like public transportation and traffic engineering when you have one or two days per week that have way, way more demand than others. It isn't helping that the light rail expansion to the east side has been delayed until 2025. 

 

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53 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The mayor of Seattle has made it his top priority to clean the city up and the results are showing.    Voters spoke.

Are people in treatment? Are overdose deaths dropping? Is affordable housing being built? I’m glad people are recognizing the problem, that’s the easy part. Real solutions will take a tremendous amount of public investment. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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26 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It's largely a visibility issue -- the high-traffic and tourism areas have been cleaned up. The actual number of people experiencing homelessness is probably about the same as pre-pandemic. It does matter though, you want the high traffic areas with tourists to look nice. I will say that I was skeptical of the constant sweeping of RVs but the number of really egregious situations has noticeably decreased in my neck of the woods and the overall numbers seem to have gone down. I would argue that the city as whole was never actually dangerous like portrayed by the media, but visibility and perception matter so it's good that people are realizing that it's fine to visit. Population is continuing to grow and there are still dozens of cranes with new developments, so the outlook for the city is pretty good. 

The commute patterns are really weird right now especially after the Amazon RTO, traffic is insane on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, worse than pre-pandemic. Other days it's still pretty light. I'm glad I don't commute. I don't know how you manage things like public transportation and traffic engineering when you have one or two days per week that have way, way more demand than others. It isn't helping that the light rail expansion to the east side has been delayed until 2025. 

 

Great update. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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36 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I think of January 1953 at least as quite consolidated, actually. Very zonal across the CONUS and frigid up north.

I think of 2004-05 as being sort of the benchmark for split flow. 1940-41 if you want to go way back. Most Ninos have it in abundance by mid January.

2004-05 is a great example. Horrible winter. 

  • Sick 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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52 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I think of January 1953 at least as quite consolidated, actually. Very zonal across the CONUS and frigid up north.

I think of 2004-05 as being sort of the benchmark for split flow. 1940-41 if you want to go way back. Most Ninos have it in abundance by mid January.

Yeah, much of Jan 1953 was zonal, but if you look at the entire wet season in 1952-53 (Oct-Apr), split flow was a reoccurring pattern.

Agree that 2004-05 was another big one, especially for mid winter.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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34 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Are people in treatment? Are overdose deaths dropping? Is affordable housing being built? I’m glad people are recognizing the problem, that’s the easy part. Real solutions will take a tremendous amount of public investment. 

 I am not sure Andrew.    But I know we can't let the city be a mad max dystopian world where there are no rules.   That plan does not work at all.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 I am not sure Andrew.    But I know we can't let the city be a mad max dystopian world where there are no rules.   That plan does not work at all.  

I agree. I’m just asking if the problem is being solved or just moved/hidden? Our country is very good at pretending things are OK.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I agree. I’m just asking if the problem is being solved or just moved/hidden? Our country is very good at pretending things are OK.

Unfortunately... there are many people who don't want to be helped and prefer the lawless society plan.   Which in turn ruins it for everyone.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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In early June last year I posted a pic of the prominent big leaf maple by our garden which is mature and very large tree and said it was not right and did not fill out as full as it usually gets.   The same thing happened to our red leaf maples that we have planted in our yard.   They looked sort of sparse all summer last year.    They all look normal now and very full.  You can't see through them like we could last summer.    I am not sure why this happened and why they are back to normal now... but the smoking gun seems to be the backwards spring last year.    We got warm in late March and early April and they started leafing out and then it was cold and wet into June.    This year it stayed cold enough for the leaf out to be delayed and they did much better with a spring that started cold and ended up warm.    

Just a theory... but I can't think of any other way to explain it.  

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20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In early June last year I posted a pic of the prominent big leaf maple by our garden which is mature and very large tree and said it was not right and did not fill out as full as it usually gets.   The same thing happened to our red leaf maples that we have planted in our yard.   They looked sort of sparse all summer last year.    They all look normal now and very full.  You can't see through them like we could last summer.    I am not sure why this happened and why they are back to normal now... but the smoking gun seems to be the backwards spring last year.    We got warm in late March and early April and they started leafing out and then it was cold and wet into June.    This year it stayed cold enough for the leaf out to be delayed and they did much better with a spring that started cold and ended up warm.    

Just a theory... but I can't think of any other way to explain it.  

Maple are very resilient. I can’t believe how quickly they are coming back in the fire zones. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Maple are very resilient. I can’t believe how quickly they are coming back in the fire zones. 

On another tree related note... while our deciduous trees look great this year we are having an issue in our area with hemlocks dying from the ground up.   This started in March when it was still wet and cold so its not related to the current warm spell.   This is almost certainly due to the ridiculous summer and fall we had last year.    Staying hot and not getting meaningful rain until late October probably pushed them over the edge.   Our HOA is actually having someone from the state come out to diagnose the problem.   But there is probably not anything that can be done about it.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Here is the message we got from the HOA:

As some of you may have noticed, there are a considerable number of dead and dying Hemlock trees in our neighborhood. This is evidenced by branches containing nothing but dead (orange) needles advancing from the ground up. This is due to a foliar disease affecting mostly Hemlock that is likely caused by recent drought conditions. The Forest Management Committee is aware of this situation and have arranged to have state Department of Natural Resources forest pathologists do an on-site visit to our neighborhood in June. Below is a link with the latest, pertinent information regarding this die off.
If you have an affected tree that you feel presents a danger to yourselves and/or your property, by all means remove it. Other affected trees that pose no imminent danger can be left standing for the visiting experts to observe and advise us on.
If you’re not sure a tree is affected, or you have any other questions forest related, reach out to myself or the other FMC members and we’d be more than happy to assist you.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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