Omegaraptor Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Oregon department of agriculture recently released their December-February forecast. It is not pretty... The 3 analogs they used were 1969-70, 1977-78, 1980-81. OUCH. Pretty sure they predicted a warmer than average October, a dry September, and a cool August as well. I would not worry too much about them. Also 1980-81 was a solar max year. Monthly forecasts have one thing in common: they’re almost never accurate. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Wives... who needs em?! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Wives... who needs em?! It's why we die younger. Its like congress. We like our wife, but we don't understand how anyone else would like theirs. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Clear and 33 with a thin smog layer about 100ft thick still remaining. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Dipped as low as 33 so far this morning. Currently 36 with dense fog. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 People need to make up their minds. Zonal, blocking, zonal blocking, zonally infused blockbusters, zombified Chuck Knoblauchs, etc. Time is wasting and Christmas lists need to be submitted S O O N. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 EPS has been very consistent in the long range. Definitely more active... but not that cold. Still a hint of split flow as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Pretty mild morning in the valley. Looks like most temps are running in the mid-40s. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 6z GFS HUGE Mt. Snows and even some for the Coast Range. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 SSTs tanking across the board with a huge resurgence of cold water off South America. #2ndYearNinoHOAX 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Temperatures are about 5 degrees cooler in the southeast metro outside of the city. 33 in Damascus, 36 Happy Valley but 40 in Gresham. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Very shallow fog that keeps coming in going. Temperatures are bouncing between 36-40 as it moves in and out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 EPS has been very consistent in the long range. Definitely more active... but not that cold. Still a hint of split flow as well. A better pattern, but definitely no hint of lowland snow. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 SSTs tanking across the board with a huge resurgence of cold water off South America. #2ndYearNinoHOAX Meh. Just a small upwelling wave. Not even on-par with the one in September. There’s a deeper downwelling wave building out in the WPAC now. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 43 and cloudy this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 SSTs tanking across the board with a huge resurgence of cold water off South America. #2ndYearNinoHOAX]SON ONI came in at +0.3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 This must be one of the strongest Nino's on record right now. Right Phillip? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 06z GFS was a fantastic run. I’d probably throw down a crisp Andrew Jackson to see that verify verbatim. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 This must be one of the strongest Nino's on record right now. Right Phillip?It’s Philip, with one L. Nobody can figure that out, lol. Definitely one of the strongest +IODs on record, which is largely responsible for your dryness (E-IO/Maritime Continent subsidence). Which is “El Niño adjacent”. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 I’ve seen discussion of this lately, and I wholeheartedly agree. There should be a “niño 5” added to the western portion of the Pacific Basin to capture the western flank of the warm pool, and instead of taking the Niño 3.4 average, one should average the entirety of the ENSO regions (with a 6 month running mean for niño 1.2) to calculate the ONI. Would correlate much more strongly to atmospheric dynamics across the NH during boreal fall/winter. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 And perhaps factor the VP200 anoms/upper level dynamics from 100E to 120W into the picture via a low pass filter to really gauge the spatial/multi-domain communication of the “ENSO” system state. Would solve so many problems, even if not all of them. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Because this winter is a nightmare of mixed messages from the forecasting community. “ENSO NEUTRAL!!!”..yeah not so much. Okay, yes it’s true that the current regime is not remotely close to a *canonical* El Niño, but no way in hell is the system state indicative of a “neutral” ENSO. It’s been an unwavering background state across the EHEM that is “El Niño adjacent”..through which many modoki/niño-west characteristics that arising and translating into the Pacific, even if modestly. Remember the EHEM is where many (if not most) of the El Niño effects on wavetrains come from anyways (the circulation over the E-IO/Indo-Pacific/warm pool heat engine). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Because this winter is a nightmare of mixed messages from the forecasting community. “ENSO NEUTRAL!!!”..yeah not so much. Okay, yes it’s true that the current regime is not remotely close to a *canonical* El Niño, but no way in hell is the system state indicative of a “neutral” ENSO. It’s been an unwavering background state across the EHEM that is “El Niño adjacent”..through which many modoki/niño-west characteristics that arising and translating into the Pacific, even if modestly. Remember the EHEM is where many (if not most) of the El Niño effects on wavetrains come from anyways (the circulation over the E-IO/Indo-Pacific/warm pool heat engine).Who cares ya silly science man! When snow? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Thing is, modoki/niño west events have a history of producing decent winters in the PNW outside that brutal stretch in the 1980s/1990s, which was mostly due a terrible BDC/stratosphere (thanks to solar/volcanism/CFCs) that only delivered out there during Niña/+QBO winters or solar minima and failed in almost every other circumstance. Can’t treat every ENSO the same. Depends on the entire nature and capacity of the background state it exists within. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Who is Phil talking to? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Currently 31 and partly foggy. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Who cares ya silly science man! When snow?Brief window of opportunity late month, if that fails next chance (maybe the best chance?) is late January (IMO). Models right now are a gargantuan hot mess. Some of these projections for late December are lol-tastic and will probably end up backwards vs reality. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Morning low of 43 in Tacoma. No rainfall overnight...we’re at 0.60” for December. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Brief window of opportunity late month, if that fails next chance (maybe the best chance?) is late January (IMO). Models right now are a gargantuan hot mess. Some of these projections for late December are lol-tastic and will probably end up backwards vs reality.I want to hear that January will be epic. All of January. That is all. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 The next 5 days on the gfs look good. 1-2 inches of rain in the western OR/WA lowlands...not major snow in the cascades but a much needed boost. 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Clear and frosty in north Bellingham this mornong. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 I want to hear that January will be epic. All of January. That is all. Was: #endOfNovember #allOfDecemberIs: #endOfDecember #allOfJanuaryComing soon: #endOfJanuary #allOfFebruary 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Finally looks like we eliminate that stupid Scandinavian vortex/Mongolian high during week 2. Closes a pathway for downstream frictional torque of AAM input from East-Asia and manifests pressure on the NAM. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Finally looks like we eliminate that stupid Scandinavian vortex/Mongolian high during week 2. Closes a pathway for downstream frictional torque of AAM input from East-Asia and manifests pressure on the NAM. AAM?NAM? Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Crystal clear here this morning... some light frost. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 I want to hear that January will be epic. All of January. That is all.I'm still liking later this month into early January. The timing seems right given pattern progressions this cold season, and the state of the Pacific. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 I'm still liking later this month into early January. The timing seems right given pattern progressions this cold season, and the state of the Pacific. Always nice when there's snow to accompany the holiday decorations. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Atmospheric angular momentum and something else. I think I would guess North American Monsoon but I don’t know if that’s a thing at this time of year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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