December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Phil]

Why would want the models to remain wet? The time is here for cold!

Rain misers want their rain. Screw cold and snow.

[ShawniganLake]

I’ll never understand you guys.

For tracking interesting weather? It’s the most interesting thing we’ve seen in awhile.

[Jesse]

EUG Ensemnle 12-21 12z.png

 

Much better than previous runs for sure.

[FroYoBro]

Rain misers want their rain. Screw cold and snow.

 

Why do you even post on this forum?

[snow_wizard]

I'd love to see some cold on the prime time from now till late Jan. The pattern last Feb in early Jan would of been of the f***** charts.

 

The 0z CFS runs have been fantastic the past few days.  This is the 30 day mean for January.  Within this there is a long period of very cold weather.

[ShawniganLake]

Rain misers want their rain. Screw cold and snow.

Sometimes our wet winters are also snowy. Of course you continue to ignore this fact.

[Jesse]

Just 4-5 months before Phil switches it up and starts telling Tim he should want rain all summer!

[TacomaWaWx]

For tracking interesting weather? It’s the most interesting thing we’ve seen in awhile.

Yeah...what a bunch of dummies tracking the biggest rain event in 10-15 years in some places.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The 0z CFS runs have been fantastic the past few days.  This is the 30 day mean for January.  Within this there is a long period of very cold weather.

 

I'll believe it when I see it.  Isn't the CFS typically pretty bush?

[HighlandExperience]

The 0z CFS runs have been fantastic the past few days.  This is the 30 day mean for January.  Within this there is a long period of very cold weather.

 

Maybe we can finally have a cold January. 

[snow_wizard]

Why do you even post on this forum?

 

I'm actually glad he does.  He has a lot of knowledge and can look at things from the perspective of somebody who doesn't have a cold NW bias.  He has ties to this area so his interest isn't totally a mystery.

[Deweydog]

I'll believe it when I see it. Isn't the CFS typically pretty bush?

Josh says 500 hour forecasts only have about a 75% verification score. That’s only a solid C.

[snow_wizard]

I'll believe it when I see it.  Isn't the CFS typically pretty bush?

 

It has some value if used carefully.  The mean of the last 50 runs or so has been favorable for us.  It fits the context of where we have been and what the background state is this winter.  Epic rain events like this have a rich history of leading to cold.

[TacomaWaWx]

Were over 0.70" now today...might be 3 consecutive days over an inch of rain if this keeps up.

[FroYoBro]

Josh says 500 hour forecasts only have about a 75% verification score. That’s only a solid C.

 

I'm started to get excited about the snowstorm. 

 

Only 4 days away. 

[TacomaWaWx]

It has some value if used carefully.  The mean of the last 50 runs or so has been favorable for us.  It fits the context of where we have been and what the background state is this winter.  Epic rain events like this have a rich history of leading to cold.

 

Keep us posted on next month! Hoping for something good we will see dont want to get my hopes up just yet though.

[Phil]

Why do you even post on this forum?

Shut up Pedro.

[FroYoBro]

I consistently scold irrational preferences. IE: Summer death ridges and warm rain in the winter. Both of those suck and I stand by that opinion. Deal with it.

 

Robot man tries to understand what opinions are. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

It has some value if used carefully.  The mean of the last 50 runs or so has been favorable for us.  It fits the context of where we have been and what the background state is this winter.  Epic rain events like this have a rich history of leading to cold.

 

Even when there's nothing close to epic down this way? Yesterday, we had a +18F departure with no rain in boring-a$$ WAA.  I find it hard to believe anything interesting is headed this far south.  Y'all should get something up there though.

[Deweydog]

[ShawniganLake]

[Phil]

Sometimes our wet winters are also snowy. Of course you continue to ignore this fact.

Those tend to be northern stream dominated regimes.

 

This ain’t even in the 2007/08 ballpark. The conduit to cold/snow this winter can only be upstream rossby wave breaking and retrogression given the boundary conditions present, and that’s a dry pattern initially.

 

I want to see you guys break your stupid January curse this year. I’m predicting a colder than average January. But that ain’t gonna happen in a zonal pattern in this particular winter.

[Phil]

[Timmy Supercell]

People are being ridiculous about the temperature today. 

 

It is normal to have a pattern like this once a winter. 

 

I know, it's happened in great seasons before. And once or twice every winter it does rain at my place.

[BLI snowman]

I consistently scold irrational preferences. IE: Summer death ridges and warm rain in the winter. Both of those suck and I stand by that opinion. Deal with it.

 

I don't think you understand the meaning of 'preference' in this case.

 

Obviously all else being equal we would have preferred cold/snow the past few days.

 

That didn't happen, so in lieu of that we are happy to at least see some active weather after a long dead stretch.

 

Not that complicated.

[Deweydog]

Euro looks COLD!

 

 

...in Alaska...

[Phil]

I'm actually glad he does. He has a lot of knowledge and can look at things from the perspective of somebody who doesn't have a cold NW bias. He has ties to this area so his interest isn't totally a mystery.

Thanks man. Pretty much all of my extended family lives in Seattle and Miami now, which sucks for us travel-wise, but it also makes the get-togethers more special.

 

It’s possible I’m biased in the sense that I hate warm rain in the winter. But I also understand basic meteorology and why particular patterns/progressions may be more/less likely to lead to desired outcomes in particular situations. Hence my confusion with the warm-rain circle jerks in here of late.

[ShawniganLake]

This isn’t 1990/91 in any way, shape, or form. There aren’t any meaningful comparisons to be made.

Okay. Well I still don’t buy into your reasoning of “the only way it gets cold this winter is if there is absolutely no interesting weather at all.”

[Phil]

Okay. Well I still don’t buy into your reasoning of “the only way it gets cold this winter is if there is absolutely no interesting weather at all.”

Huh? Where did I say that?

 

That makes no sense.

[ShawniganLake]

I also understand basic meteorology and why particular patterns/progressions may be more/less likely to lead to desired outcomes in particular situations. Hence my confusion with the warm-rain circle jerks in here of late.

You can be such an a** when people don’t fall in line your reasoning.

[Phil]

I don't think you understand the meaning of 'preference' in this case.

 

Obviously all else being equal we would have preferred cold/snow the past few days.

 

That didn't happen, so in lieu of that we are happy to at least see some active weather after a long dead stretch.

 

Not that complicated.

I guess this clears it up. So you’d prefer rain to a cold and foggy inversion pattern? Because I’d really enjoy the latter but would definitely find the former to be boring.

 

Warm rain on Christmas Eve is the ultimate nightmare scenario for my psyche, but to each their own.

 

I digress.

[FroYoBro]

Almost an inch of rain since midnight. The temperature continues to move toward a more winter like number. 

[Phil]

Again, I digress. Some people find winter rain enjoyable, and I will just have to learn to accept that.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I guess this clears it up. So you’d prefer rain to a cold and foggy inversion pattern? Because I’d really enjoy the latter but would definitely find the former to be boring.

 

Warm rain on Christmas Eve is the ultimate nightmare scenario for my psyche, but to each their own.

 

I digress.

The problem for the West siders is that a cold and foggy inversion never leads to snow.  Because as soon as precip arrives, it warms it up  and rains.  At least rain helps with mountain snow and irrigation, etc.  Sure, everyone would like to see arctic outbreaks and snow, but if the choices are an inversion wit pollution, burning restrictions, no snow anywhere, or snow in the mountains for skiing, irrigation, etc., I think most would pick that.  We can get stuck in foggy inversions for many days at a time where it is pea soup and the temp never changes.  Nobody likes that here, we have been there, done that.  

[Phil]

You can be such an a** when people don’t fall in line your reasoning.

Not trying to be an a**. Sorry if it came off that way.

[BLI snowman]

I guess this clears it up. So you’d prefer rain to a cold and foggy inversion pattern? Because I’d really enjoy the latter but would definitely find the former to be boring.

 

Warm rain on Christmas Eve is the ultimate nightmare scenario for my psyche, but to each their own.

 

I digress.

 

I wasn't aware that we had been in a cold pattern the last few weeks.

 

And in a stunning upset, foggy inversions were voted less interesting to track than record rainstorms by literally everyone in the universe.

[TacomaWaWx]

Near a 5 inch storm total here...this was a pretty big time rainstorm...especially considering how dry this year has been. We are at about 7 inches of rain this month now. 4 inches fell in 24 hours which was more than all of November and the first half of December combined.

[Deweydog]

Hour 241 of the Euro has that ridge doing an about face and amplifying like a *****.

[TacomaWaWx]

I wasn't aware that we had been in a cold pattern the last few weeks.

 

And in a stunning upset, foggy inversions were voted less interesting to track than record rainstorms by literally everyone in the universe.

I certainly found this storm interesting to track...much more exciting than inversions or anything thats happened locally since late October.

[Phil]

The problem for the West siders is that a cold and foggy inversion never leads to snow. Because as soon as precip arrives, it warms it up and rains. At least rain helps with mountain snow and irrigation, etc. Sure, everyone would like to see arctic outbreaks and snow, but if the choices are an inversion wit pollution, burning restrictions, no snow anywhere, or snow in the mountains for skiing, irrigation, etc., I think most would pick that. We can get stuck in foggy inversions for many days at a time where it is pea soup and the temp never changes. Nobody likes that here, we have been there, done that.

That wouldn’t include an inversion under a discontinuous retrogression/-EAMT, though? I get the progression is often the other way around, but that needn’t be the case, especially this year.