December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Timmy Supercell]

That is quite sad. One year ago yesterday for me.

 

65-67mph at KLMT in Feb 2015. But quite a few t'storms have produced similar winds since then. There was a severe t'storm I had in August, I still regret not getting video on that.

[catnip]

[FroYoBro]

We would be getting kinda close to snow if it was only 10 degrees colder. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Not a bad location, but not amplified.  But it is the ensemble mean, not a single run.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

14-km EPS Global 500mb 360 (1).png

 

14-km EPS Global undefined undefined 360.png

Nice offshore blocking. Will need it to retrograde and amplify up into Alaska to get Arctic air down here.

 

FWIW here is the 12z EURO Control run out to day 15.

 

[Front Ranger]

I wonder if anyone down here has any left over from Dec 1990? That was the last time Eugene/Springfield had a White Christmas. I doubt they ever have one again in my lifetime.

Tons of white Christmases down there before that.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

F53E04B6-A76F-4D44-B294-89B04CC18368.png

This is the single most recent run, and here are the 500's for it.  Probably the last map I can post today.  The latest CFS weekly looks somewhat similar.  But hard to put any faith in the CFS, especially only one run.  Probably cant put any faith in even an average over the last 12 runs either.

 

DISCLAIMER:  For all the haters of this forum, we don't take the CFS run seriously.  We know it is probably bogus.  But who cares, we enjoy it anyway.

 

DISCLAIMER #2:  For Newbies who are not familiar with weather models, these really long term runs are meaningless.  So don't get excited over what we post nor take it seriously.  Because we don't. 

 

[TacomaWaWx]

That is quite sad. One year ago yesterday for me.

One year ago yesterday we were getting slammed by 60mph gusts. Fuuny that another big storm although not a windstorm, hit one year later exactly. Last windstorm (Southerly storm not East windstorm) was 1/6 of this year. 

 We have had more Easterly wind action thiss year than Southerly. Dont think we have even had a 40mph S gust this whole season.

[Requiem]

I'll take a windstorm as consolation for being snubbed this year by most other storms...

 

A nice southerly windstorm really would be nice though.

[TacomaWaWx]

I'll take a windstorm as consolation for being snubbed this year by most other storms...

 

A nice southerly windstorm really would be nice though.

Cant remember the last time we went this far into the year without some type of southerly wind event somewhere in the region. That storm in November was borderline in the PNW.

[Requiem]

Cant remember the last time we went this far into the year without some type of southerly wind event somewhere in the region. That storm in November was borderline in the PNW.

 

April 2017 was the last really good windstorm at my location. Before that it'd be December 2014.

[Timmy Supercell]

Cant remember the last time we went this far into the year without some type of southerly wind event somewhere in the region. That storm in November was borderline in the PNW.

 

Borderline winds maybe, but the snow in southern OR was the earliest snowstorm since 2010. It's been rare to have more than a couple inches by Thanksgiving on the ground here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Tons of white Christmases down there before that.

They happened more often than 29+ years between them. It’s just bad luck.

[TacomaWaWx]

Borderline winds maybe, but the snow in southern OR was the earliest snowstorm since 2010. It's been rare to have more than a couple inches by Thanksgiving on the ground here.

It was an impressive storm dont get me wrong it just missed the majority of the region for the most part. Had some decent offshore winds in a few spots that was about it...cool storm for areas south of Eugene.

[Deweydog]

[Blizzard777]

Bucket O Moisture about 2 end

44*

[Timmy Supercell]

It was an impressive storm dont get me wrong it just missed the majority of the region for the most part. Had some decent offshore winds in a few spots that was about it...cool storm for areas south of Eugene.

 

I have a thing for south winds too, there are reasons I love to look back at Oct 2016 and wished we had a repeat of that this year. 

 

It was even pretty wet and windy in K-Falls that month.

[Deweydog]

This is the single most recent run, and here are the 500's for it. Probably the last map I can post today. The latest CFS weekly looks somewhat similar. But hard to put any faith in the CFS, especially only one run. Probably cant put any faith in even an average over the last 12 runs either.

 

DISCLAIMER: For all the haters of this forum, we don't take the CFS run seriously. We know it is probably bogus. But who cares, we enjoy it anyway.

 

DISCLAIMER #2: For Newbies who are not familiar with weather models, these really long term runs are meaningless. So don't get excited over what we post nor take it seriously. Because we don't.

 

cfs_z500_anom_northamerica_202001_1.png

Block is too far west.

 

Next...

[Timmy Supercell]

 

 

Remember, those poor puppies, and koalas.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

48F with light rain.

[MossMan]

Anyone remember how the CFS and EPS looked at the tail end of the 1990 Pineapple Express?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

This is the single most recent run, and here are the 500's for it. Probably the last map I can post today. The latest CFS weekly looks somewhat similar. But hard to put any faith in the CFS, especially only one run. Probably cant put any faith in even an average over the last 12 runs either.

 

DISCLAIMER: For all the haters of this forum, we don't take the CFS run seriously. We know it is probably bogus. But who cares, we enjoy it anyway.

 

DISCLAIMER #2: For Newbies who are not familiar with weather models, these really long term runs are meaningless. So don't get excited over what we post nor take it seriously. Because we don't.

 

cfs_z500_anom_northamerica_202001_1.png

Cool

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Anyone remember how the CFS and EPS looked at the tail end of the 1990 Pineapple Express?

 

Many of those details are locked safely inside DomeJosh's informant's head.

[ShawniganLake]

Nice offshore blocking. Will need it to retrograde and amplify up into Alaska to get Arctic air down here.

 

FWIW here is the 12z EURO Control run out to day 15.

 

Yuck. Not close to being good.

[Timmy Supercell]

Also...

 

https://komonews.com/news/local/invasive-giant-hornet-found-in-wa

 

So, please, pray for cold.

I'm gonna hide in a corner for a day after seeing that 

[ShawniganLake]

We had a 3 day storm total of 2.65” and no single day managed to accumulate over 1”

[El_Nina]

Of course it eats honeybees too.

[Timmy Supercell]

Of course it eats honeybees too.

 

I actually like honeybees and I fear other bees.. lol

 

Something is wrong with these wasps/hornets/jackets, they barely have a purpose and when I'm around them I can never tell whats on their mind,

or if I'm scaring them. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hornets and mosquitoes...pure evil.

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like the storm total will be 4.90" here...5.22" 72 hours. 6.99" for December. Pretty decent storm!

[TacomaWaWx]

I have a thing for south winds too, there are reasons I love to look back at Oct 2016 and wished we had a repeat of that this year. 

 

It was even pretty wet and windy in K-Falls that month.

 

Some years are just more fun than others. 16-17 was a fun one...hoping 19-20 can turn more fun at some point...lots of time left.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Warmer for the Winter Solstice than the Summer Solstice in So Cal today, but next week the rain is coming.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Brian, you will be getting a warning and an informational packet from the local NOAA office on how to responsibly share and discuss weather maps with only certified professionals in a controlled and private setting.

Yeah they will probably take me to the woodshed for that!

[MossMan]

We had a 3 day storm total of 2.65” and no single day managed to accumulate over 1”

I have you beat...1.75” for the event! Though we did manage 1.02” yesterday. Olympics did their thing in my area. .54” today.

[Deweydog]

Anyone remember how the CFS and EPS looked at the tail end of the 1990 Pineapple Express?

I remember checking it on my iPhone 8 when I was at a Mother Lovebone/Mudhoney/Nirvana concert at the Showbox and it was wall to wall zonal flow.

[Phil]

14-km EPS Global 500mb 360 (1).png

 

14-km EPS Global undefined undefined 360.png

Still too zonal, but it’s getting there.

[Phil]

Not a bad location, but not amplified. But it is the ensemble mean, not a single run.

 

final14-km EPS Global North America 500 hPa Height Anom (1).gif

Lots of spread though.

 

There are a few euro ensemble members that are legitimately balls-to-the-wall frigid in the West with a monster ridge into AK and a SE-ridge with a big wave-1 presentation in the stratosphere.

 

On the ugly side of the spectrum, there are some members with a broad, potent ridge right over the West with a powerful vortex either over Alaska or Baffin Island/Greenland.

 

The rest are sort of in between but I’d like to see a trend towards more Alaskan ridging with time since those solutions seem to be colder out there.

[MossMan]

I remember checking it on my iPhone 8 when I was at a Mother Lovebone/Mudhoney/Nirvana concert at the Showbox and it was wall to wall zonal flow.

We still had one of these hooked up in our basement in 1990!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

We still had one of these hooked up in our basement in 1990!

What the hell is that thing?

[MossMan]

What the hell is that thing?

The IPhone negative 8.