December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Phil]

Tell that to Feb 1989. No doubt this thing has super potential to go good for us. Earlier runs tapped into the cold and dumped into the East. This run some of it makes it down this way.

Remember, that was driven by a huge SSW under Niña/+QBO boundary conditions. In which case you’re almost certain to score in some form or another.

 

A major SSW could theoretically release the TPV and unload that cold over you assuming a favorable wavetrain. But otherwise, the vortex up there needs to be weakened and dislodged.

[Guest CulverJosh]

So what Phil is saying is that the cold air up there needs to come down here. Amazing analysis.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEFS long range is looking very promising. This progression is what we want to see and follows both the 00z EPS/Control run. Hmmm... Here we go!!!!

Day 10-16

 

[Jesse]

12z GEFS long range is looking very promising. This progression is what we want to see and follows both the 00z EPS/Control run. Hmmm... Here we go!!!!

 

Day 10-16

floop-gefs-2019122212.500h_anom.na(3).gif

 

Glad to see you back.

[Deweydog]

It’s December 22nd.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Classic!

[MossMan]

Bombshell Sunday! When Matt has a one liner post it might just be sarcasm...Phil says no to anything good for us happening anytime soon, the opposite of a few years ago which should work in our favor...And Domes imaginary friend is now on vacation...Exciting stuff!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

HUGE change in the EPS tonight. It holds the cold in AK instead of dumping into the Eastern US. At the same time a ridge slowly amplifies over the GOA and forces below normal heights to sag much further West than previous runs. Yes!

This is the 850mb temp anomaly map for the control model. That actually shows the AK cold dropping toward us and already here to some extent. The change in the mean was pretty dramatic so it's pretty exciting.

Yeah, great 00z EURO EPS run last night. Especially the control run. That's a ton of Vodka Arctic air in BC!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Yep. BIG improvement in fact. Block/positive anomaly is further west in the sweet spot. The cold isn't dumping out off Alaska into the Gulf of Alaska. Heights in BC/AB dramatically lower than previous runs. No deep trough carving out over the eastern half of the country. There is some amplification noted with the block, we just need more of it and tilt. Of course a southeast ridge always helps. Interesting how the Day 11-15 EPS mean and Control run are mirroring each other. My optimism is building.

 

Hoping to see the 12z and 00z EURO runs today continue this improvement.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Going forward the thing to watch for at the very end of the month is going to be how flat or amplified the ridge just off the coast ends up being depicted on the models. A flatter ridge can more easily lead to a good outcome as upstream high pressure cells can more easily piggy back onto the flat ridge. We want that cold air in AK to remain until a GOA ridge can amplify enough to drive it toward us.

Yeah, good analysis. All about timing it right.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM is worlds better than the GFS Op and much improved from previous runs. The blocks sets up further west and isn't being shoved eastward. Heights crashing southward in BC/AB. Hmmm....

 

Day 6-10

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2.15" for the event.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z GEFS long range is looking very promising. This progression is what we want to see and follows both the 00z EPS/Control run. Hmmm... Here we go!!!!

 

Day 10-16

floop-gefs-2019122212.500h_anom.na(3).gif

Looks primed for retrogression. Let's go!!!

[Jesse]

2.15" for the event.

[ShawniganLake]

2.15" for the event.

That’s pretty decent. Pretty similar amount up here.

[Deweydog]

Big Euro run. Strap in guys.

[Guest CulverJosh]

That GOA ridge looks too progressive.

[TT-SEA]

That GOA ridge looks too progressive.

 

 

Luckily the whole pattern "locked in" last Monday and we are guaranteed cold and snow very soon.     

 

I want access to those super-secret and all-knowing models.  

[BLI snowman]

That GOA ridge looks too progressive.

 

My friend from NASA is on vacation to January 12 and says it's cold and dense there.

[MossMan]

Luckily the whole pattern "locked in" last Monday and we are guaranteed cold and snow very soon.

 

I want access to those super-secret and all-knowing models.

Actually the “Lock-In” happened on Thursday.

[Deweydog]

Does anyone else actually feel kind of sad for him?

 

Maybe it’s just because it’s close to Xmas...

[FroYoBro]

Does anyone else actually feel kind of sad for him?

 

Maybe it’s just because it’s close to Xmas...

I’m probably done picking on him.

 

It’s too easy.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z Canadian Ensembles MASSIVE improvement tantalizingly close to dropping the arctic hammer on us. I'm trying to upload the Day 9-16 loop but it's not letting me.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF Day 6-8 I don't hate this

 

 

 

[Timmy Supercell]

That GOA ridge looks too progressive.

 

This would be a good time to hear more from that email boyo palo buddy. 

 

January might be drier than December.

[Front Ranger]

Yes, 65 at Timberline, 34 in Portland, dense.

 

Here we go. I've been waiting for the snowfall forecast.

[Phil]

Now closing in on the space age record for consecutive spotless days with 39..record is 42 back in 1996 so we just need to make it 3 more days to tie, and 4 more to set a new space age record.

 

Next longest (pre-space age) streaks are 43, back in 1912, and 45, back in 1878.

[Deweydog]

Only up to 44 at PDX...

[Phil]

The 1912/1913, 1901/1902, 1878/1879, and 1855/1856 solar minimums had some insane spotless streaks.

 

And it’s not due to differences in instrument quality, since modern measurements are calibrated to preserve homogeneity with older data.

[Winterdog]

Really tough not to be excited about the models today. I’m thinking if all goes the way we would like we will be happy.

[Gradient Keeper]

Some encouraging trends with the 12z EURO Op, GEM Op, GEFS, CMCE. Let's keep this going and see timing move ahead. C'MON!!!!

[kokaneekidz]

It just keeps trending more and more in the proper direction.... Yesterday (1500) snow level. Now 500-1000!!!!! Think Slush*************

 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A weak upper trough will
be over the area Wednesday and Thursday. It looks largely dry but
ensembles suggest spotty light precipitation cannot be entirely
ruled out. Snow levels will be fairly low and there might be some
chunky rain over hills above 500-1000 feet in the the early
morning hours. No snow accumulations are expected for now. 

[OysterPrintout]

I’m probably done picking on him.

 

It’s too easy.

 

I dunno if you lash out at people a bunch for analyzing any sort of medium to long term model analysis on an actual weather forum and then start a shtick that is either directly hypocritical or just an extremely boring slow troll then you probably deserve people ripping on you for a while during slow weather.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty interesting analogs from the 12z run.  Jan 1989, Jan 1963, late Dec 1953, and some other good ones.  A large number of La Nina analogs as well as some El Nino.  Interesting mix. 

 

Let's not forget we have several days of solidly chilly weather in the short term to enjoy also.

[Requiem]

I dunno if you lash out at people a bunch for analyzing any sort of medium to long term model analysis on an actual weather forum and then start a shtick that is either directly hypocritical or just an extremely boring slow troll then you probably deserve people ripping on you for a while during slow weather.

 

IDK what you're talking about-- I get emails from my HAARP/Kremlin contact and he's 150% real, I promise.

[snow_wizard]

The 1912/1913, 1901/1902, 1878/1879, and 1855/1856 solar minimums had some insane spotless streaks.

 

And it’s not due to differences in instrument quality, since modern measurements are calibrated to preserve homogeneity with older data.

 

Good point.  I have noticed one site referencing some tiny spots that last for less than a day.  Those aren't officially counted because of the reasons you cite.  At any rate this solar min has been exceptional.  As far as smoothed data it would appear this is the deepest back to minimum we have had since the Dalton min.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF is showing a good hard frost Christmas night and the next night.  It's going to be a nippy week.  I'm glad we got the heavy rain out of the way when we did.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z WRF 4km Sounding PDX

 

This looks real interesting on Christmas Eve morning. 10 AM. That's really close to a snow sounding! Not a lot of moisture, but hmmm!

[ShawniganLake]

Now closing in on the space age record for consecutive spotless days with 39..record is 42 back in 1996 so we just need to make it 3 more days to tie, and 4 more to set a new space age record.

 

Next longest (pre-space age) streaks are 43, back in 1912, and 45, back in 1878.

Nice. We had a butt load of snow in 1996

[MossMan]

Things are finally starting to look up! DJ and Jim are back, and Jake is feeling it as well!!

 

Currently 39 with a few peeks of the sun.