December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[MossMan]

In all honesty, I hope people are taking today’s discoveries with a big grain of salt. There’s really nothing at the moment which shows much of any shift from what looks like a teleconnective disaster.

Way to ruin Positive Sunday.

[Phil]

I believe it also played out that way in 1990 and 2008, though.

Both were full blown +QBO (and low subtropical AAM).

 

Discount that at your own peril.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

While I don't have access to EPS spaghetti Weatherbell does show the spread on the PNA and EPO indices so that will give some clue as to how wild some of the EPS members might be.

Yeah, I'm interested in seeing those members. At weather.us they have all the 50 EPS members but usually takes a few hours after the operational run to upload.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yeah, I'm interested in seeing those members. At weather.us they have all the 50 EPS members but usually takes a few hours after the operational run to upload.

 

Also, if someone posts them, can we pls have them for SEA, PDX, and EUG?

[MossMan]

Yeah, I'm interested in seeing those members. At weather.us they have all the 50 EPS members but usually takes a few hours after the operational run to upload.

Jesse says buy it and look for yourself.

[Jesse]

Jesse says buy it and look for yourself.

You are so thin skinned. I didn’t mean anything bad in what I said. It’s actually fun tracking the models. Euro maps are free and easy to access on Pivotal Weather now. I just started using the site a couple weeks ago and it’s great.

 

https://home.pivotalweather.com/

[Jesse]

[BLI snowman]

I believe it also played out that way in 1990 and 2008, though.

 

2008 was a pretty deep -ENSO background.

 

There was a pretty persistent Alaska vortex in November and early December 1990, which we eventually tapped into.

[MossMan]

You are so thin skinned. I didn’t mean anything bad in what I said. It’s actually fun tracking the models. Euro maps are free and easy to access on Pivotal Weather now. I just started using the site a couple weeks ago and it’s great.

 

https://home.pivotalweather.com/

And you are so thinned skin to think that I am thin skinned!

[FroYoBro]

And you are so thinned skin to think that I am thin skinned!

 

Skin burn.

 

So like a normal burn. 

[BLI snowman]

We don't need the full PV to fall right over us in order to score some cold and snow. We just need a lobe/chunk of it to detach and slide south, which Phil's own animation trying to show us being screwed hinted at itself. Unlike East Coast weenies that believe it's PV or bust, PNW weenies are generally content with solid cold and snow without the need of it being historic beyond belief.

 

And I'd argue it is always better to have cold nearby to tap into than not. I'd rather have cold up in AK/Yukon at-the-ready instead of on the other side of the globe or bottled up over Baffin Island, regardless of if some guy in DC says that's not what we want.

 

Yeah, it's pretty exceptional for us to actually see the PV dislodge and then move anywhere near us. Most of our arctic outbreaks don't involve that.

[FroYoBro]

Up to 46 here.

 

[Guest CulverJosh]

Go Hawks!!!!!!

[High Desert Mat?]

My mom works at the nws. Therefore I know josh’s connection now. Cut the cord already Josh and get off the nipple!!!

[Guest CulverJosh]

My mom works at the nws. Therefore I know josh’s connection now. Cut the cord already Josh and get off the nipple!!!

You know better. Should be snowing before he gets off vacation.

[Timmy Supercell]

It hasn't even sprinkled once today. And looks like it's not going to either.

 

[AbbyJr]

Improvements on the Euro ensembles. While there is still a +EPO signal, there is also a -PNA signal shown. A few tweaks to the EPO and this could turn into an arctic pattern for the PNW. I also like that the trough has been trending west from previous runs. In any case, its better than the persistent split flow regime we've had to endure for so long. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A few thoughts...

 

1) Will be nice to have a seasonally cool airmass in place this week. Probably still ends up an above average month, but only slightly. 

2) About 75% of the country is going to torch this week. Here in Tulsa they could hit 70 a couple times, average high in the upper 40s. 

3) Good to see the cold in Alaska. 

4) Dewey is right, there is nothing that exciting showing up in the models for us. 

5) If we score in January it will probably be during the 2nd or 3rd week of the month. 

 

One of these years we will see an arctic in January....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FWIW the CFS seems to be latching on to a really cold solution from about January 4-15th. 

 

Actually it stays chilly through the end of the run. The 00z showed the arctic air concentrated around the 15-20th. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Nice and wet out there today. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hovering between 43F-45F.

[Deweydog]

I think you go for it here...

[MossMan]

Hmmmm.

[BLI snowman]

I think you go for it here...

 

Throng wread.

[Jesse]

Nice slug of rain heading for Portland.

[MossMan]

Oops!!

[Deweydog]

Throng wread.

So you don’t wanna go for some Arctic air and Arctic snow?

[Gradient Keeper]

Improvements on the Euro ensembles. While there is still a +EPO signal, there is also a -PNA signal shown. A few tweaks to the EPO and this could turn into an arctic pattern for the PNW. I also like that the trough has been trending west from previous runs. In any case, its better than the persistent split flow regime we've had to endure for so long. 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-8312000.png

Really promising. A mere eyelash or two from being really good.

 

FWIW the CFS seems to be latching on to a really cold solution from about January 4-15th. 

 

Actually it stays chilly through the end of the run. The 00z showed the arctic air concentrated around the 15-20th. 

Yeah it's worth noting timing has moved ahead big time. CFS WINS!!!!

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Also, if someone posts them, can we pls have them for SEA, PDX, and EUG?

On weather.us, it's a map view like at tropicaltidbits and pivotalweather. They got spaghetti maps but its premium and cost extra.

[BLI snowman]

So you don’t wanna go for some Arctic air and Arctic snow?

 

I suspect we will get a delay of game of punt it into 2020-21 territory (late October).

[Deweydog]

I suspect we will get a delay of game of punt it into 2020-21 territory (late October).

The CFS showed that being a 4th and 1 play action with a deep ball to the back of the end zone caught by Steve Largent.

[BLI snowman]

The CFS showed that being a 4th and 1 play action with a deep ball to the back of the end zone caught by Steve Largent.

 

Hopefully Jim Zorn makes it to the Pro Bowl next winter.

[MossMan]

Hopefully Jim Zorn makes it to the Pro Bowl next winter.

Isn’t he the head coach for the Dragons now?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

On weather.us, it's a map view like at tropicaltidbits and pivotalweather. They got spaghetti maps but its premium and cost extra.

 

Yeah looks like $8 a month.

[BLI snowman]

Isn’t he the head coach for the Dragons now?

 

Looks like it.

[Deweydog]

18z!!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

18z!!!

 

Pretty shittty splitty after Christmas.

[Deweydog]

That is a shitload of cold up there.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

That is a shitload of cold up there.

 

All primed to slide east.

[Deweydog]

All primed to sit there.

Feeexed eet fer ya.