December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Deweydog]

459dm heights. Don’t see that... ever.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'm not much of a drinker but this Harvey's hot buttered rum is gooood.

[AbbyJr]

Really promising. A mere eyelash or two from being really good.

 

Yeah it's worth noting timing has moved ahead big time. CFS WINS!!!!

 

The CMC Ensemble looks very similar to the Euro:

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I can finally take some time off and relax. This had been the longest working year I think I've ever had and have averaged 65 to 70 hrs a week since March.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The 18z looks like an old Kmart sandwich... With extra lettuce.

[Omegaraptor]

Snowing at Timberline.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Snowing at Timberline.

 

Are you up there now?

[Omegaraptor]

Are you up there now?

Yeah, going back down soon. I posted sunrise pics earlier.

[Guest CulverJosh]

I heard it was snowing on the top of all the higher peaks.

 

#EpicDecemberContinues

[Omegaraptor]

Sub 40 high on Tuesday?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

GEFS: Lower heights/Temps heads our way, sees the big, bad high pressure moving in, gets scared and retreats north.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Sub 40 high on Tuesday?

 

Would be the first one since Nov 30 and only the 2nd this cold season.

 

#NewNormal

[Omegaraptor]

Would be the first one since Nov 30 and only the 2nd this cold season.

 

#NewNormal

Would be the first one for us. We stayed with highs in the low 40s the entire late Nov cold period.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Improvements on the Euro ensembles. While there is still a +EPO signal, there is also a -PNA signal shown. A few tweaks to the EPO and this could turn into an arctic pattern for the PNW. I also like that the trough has been trending west from previous runs. In any case, its better than the persistent split flow regime we've had to endure for so long.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-8312000.png

The CMC Ensemble looks very similar to the Euro:

 

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-8312000.png

Looking good. If we can get some amplification with that block then watch out. Very cold Arctic air ready to be tapped into.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The CMC Ensemble looks very similar to the Euro:

 

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-8312000.png

 

Looks ok but not that great.

[GHweatherChris]

Someday it will cold and snow again, lock in that prediction!!

[Guest CulverJosh]

Ok guys. Just got a “vacation” email from my NWS insider.

 

He is going to call me tomorrow around 9 am. He told me that things are even more interesting than before. He said 1950 could be on the table, his words.

 

Hgh desert Mat and Dave from Troutdale, both members of this site, will be in on the call. Should be interesting. Stay tuned....

[Omegaraptor]

Think consolidated jet!!!!

 

Think highs in the low 40s!!!!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Esquimalt]

The 18Z ensembles are a big improvement from the 12Z thought

[Timmy]

Ok guys. Just got a “vacation” email from my NWS insider.

 

He is going to call me tomorrow around 9 am. He told me that things are even more interesting than before. He said 1950 could be on the table, his words.

 

Hgh desert Mat and Dave from Troutdale, both members of this site, will be in on the call. Should be interesting. Stay tuned....

doubling down on your folly. Sounds about right.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The 18Z ensembles are a big improvement from the 12Z thought

 

 

Cooler and wetter for sure.

[Timmy Supercell]

Ok guys. Just got a “vacation” email from my NWS insider.

 

He is going to call me tomorrow around 9 am. He told me that things are even more interesting than before. He said 1950 could be on the table, his words.

 

Hgh desert Mat and Dave from Troutdale, both members of this site, will be in on the call. Should be interesting. Stay tuned....

 

Sh*t's about to get real, everyone. I gotta refill my wine cellar before nuclear winter blankets the northwest!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Ok guys. Just got a “vacation” email from my NWS insider.

 

He is going to call me tomorrow around 9 am. He told me that things are even more interesting than before. He said 1950 could be on the table, his words.

 

Hgh desert Mat and Dave from Troutdale, both members of this site, will be in on the call. Should be interesting. Stay tuned....

 

Not January, 1950 unfortunately.

[GHweatherChris]

I have a good feeling 2020 is on the table, my words not his, 9 days to go to get there!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 18z ensembles were decent in the long range. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Given how the rest of the month looks to shake out Fairbanks, AK will probably end December with a negative departure after November's brutal torch. a -32 departure yesterday with a -30/-35 split. 

[Winterdog]

The 18z ensembles were decent in the long range.

 

I guess this winter a -3C mean for 850’s would be considered decent.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I guess this winter a -3C mean for 850’s would be considered decent.

 

Pretty much.  It's basically 02-03 status so far. Only difference is the 534 thickness line has crossed us one time. We still haven't had a high temp in the 30s this Dec and even 2002 had 2 early in the month.

 

Hasn't been a Dec without a high in the 30s here since 1958.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Hammer is about to drop.

[Phil]

We don't need the full PV to fall right over us in order to score some cold and snow. We just need a lobe/chunk of it to detach and slide south, which Phil's own animation trying to show us being screwed hinted at itself. Unlike East Coast weenies that believe it's PV or bust, PNW weenies are generally content with solid cold and snow without the need of it being historic beyond belief.

 

And I'd argue it is always better to have cold nearby to tap into than not. I'd rather have cold up in AK/Yukon at-the-ready instead of on the other side of the globe or bottled up over Baffin Island, regardless of if some guy in DC says that's not what we want.

You clearly didn’t grasp my point. I never said the TPV itself would ever be expected to drop south of the border.

 

To put it simply, the cold bottled in Alaska will not drop due south into the PNW without sufficient wave activity fluxes/amplification. Without a low-freq Aleutian ridge tendency (given the state of the tropics/AAM moats this year), the delivery mechanism will not be the prototypical -ENSO/+QBO variety as in years like 1988/89 et al.

 

If you don’t believe me, watch what happens over the next three weeks if that vortex comes to fruition. I hope it doesn’t, because I swear I want you guys to score..(plus I want my forecast to verify in the contest, lol). I’m just being blunt and 100% honest here. Doesn’t mean I’m correct..I could be totally wrong. But I’m done mincing words.

[GHweatherChris]

Hammer is about to drop.

I dropped a hammer today, almost hit my foot. Almost...

[Front Ranger]

You clearly didn’t grasp my point. I never said the TPV itself would ever be expected to drop south of the border.

 

To put it simply, the cold bottled in Alaska will not drop due south into the PNW without sufficient wave activity fluxes/amplification. Without a low-freq Aleutian ridge tendency (given the state of the tropics/AAM moats this year), the delivery mechanism will not be the prototypical -ENSO/+QBO variety as in years like 1988/89 et al.

 

If you don’t believe me, watch what happens over the next three weeks if that vortex comes to fruition. I hope it doesn’t, because I swear I want you guys to score..(plus I want my forecast to verify in the contest, lol). I’m just being blunt and 100% honest here. Doesn’t mean I’m correct..I could be totally wrong. But I’m done mincing words.

 

It's already been alive for a couple days up there.

[GHweatherChris]

You clearly didn’t grasp my point. I never said the TPV itself would ever be expected to drop south of the border.

 

To put it simply, the cold bottled in Alaska will not drop due south into the PNW without sufficient wave activity fluxes/amplification. Without a low-freq Aleutian ridge tendency (given the state of the tropics/AAM moats this year), the delivery mechanism will not be the prototypical -ENSO/+QBO variety as in years like 1988/89 et al.

 

If you don’t believe me, watch what happens over the next three weeks if that vortex comes to fruition. I hope it doesn’t, because I swear I want you guys to score..(plus I want my forecast to verify in the contest, lol). I’m just being blunt and 100% honest here. Doesn’t mean I’m correct..I could be totally wrong. But I’m done mincing words.

If you say you could be incorrect or wrong why are you so adamant about it not being able to happen? Just curious.

[umadbro]

Ok guys. Just got a “vacation” email from my NWS insider.

 

He is going to call me tomorrow around 9 am. He told me that things are even more interesting than before. He said 1950 could be on the table, his words.

 

Hgh desert Mat and Dave from Troutdale, both members of this site, will be in on the call. Should be interesting. Stay tuned....

 

Hahahahahaha

[Anti Marine Layer]

Will the Split Flowers beat the Rain Dumpers? What's the score?

[Deweydog]

[GHweatherChris]

[ShawniganLake]

Hammer is about to drop.

Haha. Crave attention much?

 

“Everyone look at me”

[Omegaraptor]

Not January, 1950 unfortunately.

December 1950 was one of the warmest Decembers on record...