December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Cloud]

The daily fuzz is back!!

All members trending southward is always awesome.

[Gradient Keeper]

8:58 AM Near west Gresham temp 32.1 and now having some freezing drizzle off/on. The vehicles have ice on them. Hmmm....

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Been 37F and foggy since midnight. Likely will extend our streak without a high in the 30s.

[TacomaWaWx]

31 and foggy in Tacoma...also a bit icy.

[TacomaWaWx]

Holy sh*t whats beenn happening on this forum the last few days good f*cking lord...we need some interesting weather to happen soon. Things look interesting in the LR but im going to get excited when the models actually lock into something. Until then its just too far out to really get excited about.

[TT-SEA]

Looks really nice at home this morning.... sunny and 34.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Also...we are at 7.28" for December...second freeze of the month here this morning and the 8th of the cold season.

[Timmy Supercell]

Definitely looks like Christmas Eve 

 

Completely snowless but there might be something tonight?

 

 

[Deweydog]

Then one foggy Christmas Eve...

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Happy Christmas Eve! Looks like maybe some light showers overnight but Santa shouldn't have a problem delivering all our presents.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

 

Looking decent after the 3rd of Jan.

[snow_wizard]

Not that anyone will care, becasue I obviously don't know anything, but the MJO forecast has gotten very good also.  When the cold Janaury happens I'm not going to let anyone say it was just luck on my part.  I have been going cold Jan for months now.

 

 

[Phil]

[Gradient Keeper]

Not that anyone will care, becasue I obviously don't know anything, but the MJO forecast has gotten very good also.  When the cold Janaury happens I'm not going to let anyone say it was just luck on my part.  I have been going cold Jan for months now.

I certainly do. Looks promising. Cheer up. Thanks for posting this. Merry Christmas.

[Gradient Keeper]

But what causes the “Aleutian block” in these flat ridge evolutions?

 

Any blast this winter probably won’t have an Aleutian based block at all. It will likely have an Alaskan block.

As the Aleutian ridge merges with our flat/flattening offshore ridge it becomes an Alaska block setting up around 145-160 W and hopefully nosing up through the mainland amplifying into the arctic regions. When it tilts ---> into the Yukon or Western Northwest Territories is usually when we really tap into the cold stuff.

[Timmy Supercell]

Can flurries come out of fog? Flurries are coming down right now. 

[MossMan]

Can flurries come out of fog? Flurries are coming down right now.

Yes! Happened all of the time in Moses Lake.

[Phil]

As the Aleutian ridge merges with our flat/flattening offshore ridge it becomes an Alaska block setting up around 145-160 W and hopefully nosing up through the mainland amplifying into the arctic regions. When it tilts ---> into the Yukon or Western Northwest Territories is usually when we really tap into the cold stuff.

That’s a cold ENSO conduit to -EPO/PNW cold for sure.

 

Often times the warm ENSO conduit is cyclonic wavebreaking in the NW-Pacific tanking the EPO followed by an EAMT reversal/retrograde.

[snow_wizard]

Not that it will have any effect on our weather in the near term, but it appears the sun might be about to wake up.  The flux numbers are going up and there are a bunch of tiny spots.  Still not an official end to the spotless streak, but it might end soon.  If it does we would miss the longest modern day spotless streak by only a couple of days.

[Phil]

That is just absurd cold up in Canada on the clown range 12z GFS. Almost -50C 850mb temps for the 3rd consecutive run.

 

If that gets into the US, warministas are gonna stroke out.

 

[HighlandExperience]

That is just absurd cold up in Canada on the clown range 12z GFS. Almost -50C 850mb temps for the 3rd consecutive run.

 

If that gets into the US, warministas are gonna stroke out.

 

Not really they will blame global warming.

[Jbolin]

Not that anyone will care, becasue I obviously don't know anything, but the MJO forecast has gotten very good also.  When the cold Janaury happens I'm not going to let anyone say it was just luck on my part.  I have been going cold Jan for months now.

Months Jim?

 

More like YEARS!

[Phil]

Not that it will have any effect on our weather in the near term, but it appears the sun might be about to wake up. The flux numbers are going up and there are a bunch of tiny spots. Still not an official end to the spotless streak, but it might end soon. If it does we would miss the longest modern day spotless streak by only a couple of days.

I’m not sure a few sunspots is evidence that solar minimum has been reached/passed. Should be soon, though.

[Timmy Supercell]

Yes! Happened all of the time in Moses Lake.

 

Strange that I haven't seen it all these years until now. Fog is pretty common here but in general I have not seen flakes without any other major source of precipitation.

 

I had a 10+ day stretch of non-stop frozen fog in Dec 2013 and that didn't happen once. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not really they will blame global warming.

 

Not really, the lower 48 is torching right now...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensembles are okay, still a lot of spread as it is the long range. I think best case scenario right now is probably something between late December 2015 and January 2012. 

[Phil]

Not really they will blame global warming.

Good point.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Ensembles are okay, still a lot of spread as it is the long range. I think best case scenario right now is probably something between late December 2015 and January 2012.

At best.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At best.

 

I kind of think a late December 2012/15 type scenario is probably best case in the 3rd-8th range...Probably would not be enough to improve the mood on here... I think any arctic potential will be in the 10-20th range and then MAYBE again the first week of February.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF Day 3

 

Heights much lower over BC and us too. Ridge holding a bit further west.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

 

[Jesse]

I kind of think a late December 2012/15 type scenario is probably best case in the 3rd-8th range...Probably would not be enough to improve the mood on here... I think any arctic potential will be in the 10-20th range and then MAYBE again the first week of February.

Thank you for morning cFS recap and happy holidays Andrew.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Thank you for morning cFS recap and happy holidays Andrew.

 

You are so welcome. And MERRY CHRISTMAS!

 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/12/24/trump_made_it_safe_to_say_merry_christmas_again.html

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Phil created weather.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Phil created weather.

 

If so he did not do a great job.

[Deweydog]

The Arctic doesn’t outbreak until Phil says it can.

[ShawniganLake]

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

 

[Timmy Supercell]

Frog already wants to burn off. That's unfortunate.