December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Phil]

Stupid to berate people for not “staying on message”.

 

This isn’t a political campaign. There are no hearts or minds to be won. Mother Nature will do what she wants regardless of how “positive” or “negative” we are.

[Front Ranger]

There’s definitely more Hudson Bay/Baffin Island ridge on the ECMWF versus the GFS. Which helps put the squeeze play on the AK low/TPV in conjunction with the wave driving out of the NW-Pacific.

 

But said vortex is strong, and its response to said squeeze play is to retreat over the Arctic. It’s stacked like a stove-pipe up there.

 

And that is a legit problem IMO. Could be the issue that defines this winter...how do we drive that frigid airmass out of the Arctic?

So many differences from 1999-00...just don't see that kind of persistence playing out this winter.

 

We may hate that thing now, but as you've alluded it could lead to insane mid lat cold once things break.

[Jbolin]

I have just one thing to say, 

[Jesse]

Tiger was just being tongue and cheek I think.

Ease up on him, his “negativity” (whatever that means) won’t drive the cold away.

Reading the same complaints over and over again gets old, especially when a lot of it isn’t even factually correct.

 

People can act however they want here, and obviously none of it will affect the weather. But all of it does affect the overall readability of this forum.

[Jesse]

Stupid to berate people for not “staying on message”.

This isn’t a political campaign. There are no hearts or minds to be won. Mother Nature will do what she wants regardless of how “positive” or “negative” we are.

Says the guy who constantly jumps on everyone’s cases for rooting for the wrong patterns and not obediently staying on his yearly kool-aid train

[Phil]

I think the constant negativity is no more annoying than people who constantly reference January 1950 or 1969 as legitimate patterns that have a possibility of being replicated on an annual basis.

IMO, the policing of people’s positive/negative thought crimes is more annoying than the thought crimes themselves.

[Front Ranger]

Show us December.

It's been warm, obviously.

 

The point of the map, which included December, is that overall the past 3 months have still tilted cooler than normal for the lower 48.

 

Let's see what happens over the next month.

[Phil]

[Jesse]

IMO, the policing of people’s positive/negative thought crimes is more annoying than the thought crimes themselves.

Maybe you are policing my thoughts now. I was simply sharing my opinion. It won’t affect the weather, I promise!!

[Jesse]

I’m allowed to disagree with your preferences, Jesse.

Very true. If only it were mutual.

 

#zonalflowkills

[Timmy Supercell]

I think the constant negativity is no more annoying than people who constantly reference January 1950 or 1969 as legitimate patterns that have a possibility of being replicated on an annual basis. 

 

Jan 1950 is likely a once in a century type month for snowfall. It's fun to talk about but I'll be a persnickety geezer by the time it happens next.

[Jesse]

It was a foggy one out last night!

 

Low of 31.

[Deweydog]

Christmas Eve debates on the righteousness of either unrealistic negativity or unrealistic optimism are also a terrible sign moving forward.

[Jesse]

Christmas Eve debates on the righteousness of either unrealistic negativity or unrealistic optimism are also a terrible sign moving forward.

Both are stupid. Best to aim for a middle ground. Or in your case, higher ground!

[umadbro]

Last night's drama was so much more entertaining than today's. Step it up kids!

[Phil]

Maybe you are policing my thoughts now. I was simply sharing my opinion. It won’t affect the weather, I promise!!

This could get philosophical in a hurry.

 

Still, there’s a key difference. One of us merely voiced a personal opinion re: warm rain/zonal flow and never claimed to be annoyed by others’ divergent opinions, while the other is annoyed when others express said opinions (and also gets annoyed when people aren’t “positive” 24/7).

 

I expressed dissent and encourage dissent. You despise dissent and actively seek to shut it down.

[Jesse]

This could get philosophical in a hurry.

Still, there’s a key difference. One of us merely voiced a personal opinion re: warm rain/zonal flow and never claimed to be annoyed by others’ divergent opinions, while the other is annoyed when others express said opinions (and also gets annoyed when people aren’t “positive” 24/7).

 

 

Keep us all in line Phil!

[Thermal Trough]

[Jesse]

Sorry Phil, I can think for myself. I don’t need to agree with your pre-approved patterns with regard to what will be good for us down the road (which oddly, is always whatever provides the least interesting weather possible at present).

 

Don’t drink the kool-aid guys.

[Jbolin]

Sorry Phil, I can think for myself. I don’t need to agree with your pre-approved patterns with regard to what will be good for us down the road (which oddly, is always whatever provides the least interesting weather possible at present).

 

Don’t drink the kool-aid guys.

What about Flavor-Aid?

[Jesse]

What about Flavor-Aid?

Looks like the NAM of kool-aids.

[Phil]

Sorry Phil, I can think for myself. I don’t need to agree with your pre-approved patterns with regard to what will be good for us down the road (which oddly, is always whatever provides the least interesting weather possible at present).

 

Don’t drink the kool-aid guys.

Absolutely. I’m just sharing opinions. While my pattern analysis is based on boundary conditions specific to this year only (my thoughts would be completely different if this was a niña/+QBO or even an east-based niño) I could be also completely full of s**t and you guys could be right.

[GHweatherChris]

Looks like the NAM of kool-aids.

Sometimes it's good.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I try to take anything negative in my life and flush it down the ******* toilet! After watching the love of my life die it put everything in perspective. Whenever you think you have it tough there is someone that has it tougher!

[bainbridgekid]

Pretty good Ensemble agreement for at least a minor cold snap around January 3rd-5th.

 

Mean dips below -5 and there are a lot of members in the -8 to -10 range. Then a good number stay chilly through the end of the run.

 

[Jesse]

Absolutely. I’m just sharing opinions. While my pattern analysis is based on boundary conditions specific to this year only (my thoughts would be completely different if this was a niña/+QBO or even an east-based niño) I could be also completely full of s**t and you guys could be right.

Well I am just sharing mine too. Tigerwoods constant whining is ******* annoying. Notice I didn’t tell him he had to stop, just giving some feedback.

[Jbolin]

I try to take anything negative in my life and flush it down the f***** toilet! After watching the love of my life die it put everything in perspective. Whenever you think you have it tough there is someone that has it tougher!

D**n straight, very little in this world matters when it hits you personally.

[Jesse]

And for the record, I really like TWL as a person.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS not too far away in the 10-15 day period:

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Negativity breeds more negativity. It is a cancer. It has a snowballing effect. Nothing good comes from it. Positivity or optimism likewise can set a similar mood with others. No real downside to that. Being unrealistic is easier to ignore than one who is expressing negativity. Just my thoughts.

 

18z GFS in 1 hour 22 minutes

18z GEFS in 2 hours 53 minutes

00z GFS in 7 hours 22 minutes

[Jesse]

I try to take anything negative in my life and flush it down the f***** toilet! After watching the love of my life die it put everything in perspective. Whenever you think you have it tough there is someone that has it tougher!

Troof. Merry Christmas man. Seeing how you have rebuilt a good life for yourself and stayed so positive in spite of tragedy has been pretty inspirational.

[TT-SEA]

And day 15...

 

[GHweatherChris]

I want some cold and snow too.

[Deweydog]

Merry Christmas!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

And day 15...

 

That looks like notable improvement to me. Thanks, Tim for posting the EPS maps so regularly whether they show pure s**t or encouraging optimism. Merry Christmas

[GHweatherChris]

Merry Christmas!!!

Christmas is tomorrow.

[Deweydog]

Negativity breeds more negativity. It is a cancer. It has a snowballing effect. Nothing good comes from it. Positivity or optimism likewise can set a similar mood with others. No real downside to that. Being unrealistic is easier to ignore than one who is expressing negativity. Just my thoughts.

 

18z GFS in 1 hour 22 minutes

18z GEFS in 2 hours 53 minutes

00z GFS in 7 hours 22 minutes

Did you end up beating the out of Josh?

[MossMan]

And day 15...

 

Good and steady improvements!

 

Currently 38 degrees and cloudy here at home.

[GHweatherChris]

And day 15...

 

 

Sliding east.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Here is the 500mb at day 15.