St Paul Storm Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Ok. Nearly all 18z GEFS members have a storm early next week. And for the most part they are in relatively good agreement. If this doesn’t pan out, the GFS and the ensembles have a definite problem. Or maybe we already knew that? But it’s concerning if all of the other models are right and these are not. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 GFS is hot garage. If it’s the outlier, it can definitely be discounted. And I hope I’m wrong because I want snow. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Every GFS ensemble has the storm, at least to some degree and the GFS mean is cranking it up a notch. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 11, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Every GFS ensemble has the storm, at least to some degree and the GFS mean is cranking it up a notch.Either this is the biggest coupe ever, or the biggest head fake ever, in the medium range. It’s like, how could the ensembles be increasing its odds of a storm and be wrong??? I guess we’ll just have to wait and see. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Tom, Let’s do this! Go GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Either this is the biggest coupe ever, or the biggest head fake ever, in the medium range. It’s like, how could the ensembles be increasing its odds of a storm and be wrong??? I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.Normally I wouldn't put anything past the GFS but I think we can have a little confidence that there will be a storm of some degree based on what happened around Halloween. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 I got a good feeling that this going to come down to the NAM. Oddly my dad has actually liked the gfs this season. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 20191211 Storm Tweet.JPGAlso favorable for cold air! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 18z EC a little more north and a lot more juiced! Could be a good sign for tonights run. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 In the "fwiw" dept, today's 18z NAVGEM also has a nice reflection. Seems to be agreeing with the GFS 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 18z EC a little more north and a lot more juiced! Could be a good sign for tonights run. Needs to lose that flat bowling ball look and turn more northeast up the OHV. I don't think the blocking's that strong. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 NOAA: Deep column anticyclone is then forecasted to build into the regionfor the beginning of next week. Models have shown high consistencyin bringing a system in vicinity of Southeast Michigan Tuesday.Strong upper level jet dynamics is expected to result in a wellorganized mid latitude cyclone. Latest deterministic ECMWF run showsa southern shift of the storm track with strong ridging in placeover much of the Great Lakes. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Good to see the 00z ICON bring the storm back, no overly strong though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Good to see the 00z ICON bring the storm back, no overly strong though. 18z at end of h120 already had an improved look. Plenty of time for all models to trend better. Remember how poorly Vet's Day was modeled. I think at this range the GFS still didn't even show a storm iirc. Because it had been so horrible, I didn't even pay attention, tho most others seemed bothered it didn't have the storm. I could care less if one model is late to the party. Last year it seems like all the globals took turns "leading" and at other times following. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Good to see the 00z ICON bring the storm back, no overly strong though. Took a look. I see it's issue. It takes the 1st wave and just slings it ENE in rapid fashion. At 12z Monday morning it has it 2 state east of the where the last GFS run had a SLP. 0z running.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 00z GFS looking sharper with the energy. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Took a look. I see it's issue. It takes the 1st wave and just slings it ENE in rapid fashion. At 12z Monday morning it has it 2 state east of the where the last GFS run had a SLP. 0z running..You are absolutely right about that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Need that EC storm that blows up in E Canada to keep moving and the models to slow down the ejection of the S Plains low. It's gotta have space to breathe and turn northeast. If the GFS is incorrect in it's slower timing this will run into the confluence from the beast to the east and stay weak and south. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Huge hit coming for a lot of you guys out west...12"+ showing up for parts of KC/NE/S IA 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Uh.... LOL Of course, tonight's UK and Euro will show nothing like this. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Clinton, LOL..The GFS has you shooting into the 40’s and rain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 00z GFS....come on GFS, you gotta be right! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Continues to insist on bringing a mix or rain into my latitude. This would be soooo last winter. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 It shows much of the snow falling here during daylight, which automatically means it's likely to be wrong. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 00z GFS...another look... 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Clinton, LOL..The GFS has you shooting into the 40’s and rain Not much better here..sadly I'll be able to "sniff" the see good snows one freakin county address north. I can see it now..sigh Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 It also shows a big snow here in December and the 2010s precedent suggests that it's wrong. 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 00z GFS...another look... Nice score for you too Tom. Why does it lose a lot coming up thru the Mitt. Euro a few days back stayed strong or increased northeast Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 You gotta scratch your head and think to yourself, if the GFS is right, what the heck is wrong with the other models??? Someone's gonna cave...does it start tonight with the rest of the global suite??? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 My God I wish the GFS in the 5 day range would be right for once. At least the last couple runs are trending in the right direction. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 It also shows a big snow here in December and the 2010s precedent suggests that it's wrong. Iowa is a pretty big territory. The entire state getting a BD isn't likely. Parts got a good bliz last year in Nov. There was the bliz circa Dec of 2010? Maybe 2009 idk. Iowa gets hit plenty, except Cedar Rapids seems to be good for rain, nasso much for snow. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Nice score for you too Tom. Why does it lose a lot coming up thru the Mitt. Euro a few days back stayed strong or increased northeastThese are details that can be figured out later but I did notice that as well. Storms have had a tendency to continue strengthening while tracking NE into ONT. Might just be a run that showed a weakening state instead of a strengthening. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 00z GFS...another look... I'm sure with this mix signature a lot of that "snow" over mby would be IP or something other, no? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 This is a Christmas miracle. Be right for once GFS. I promise I’ll never bad mouth you again. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 I'm sure with this mix signature a lot of that "snow" over mby would be IP or something other, no? 20191212 0z gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_120 MI zoom.pngJaster-- we are a hair close to all snow 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 The Canadian takes so much longer to come out than it used to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Canadian is in between the ICON and GFS, but closer to the ICON. It has decent energy ejecting out of the west, but then it kinda shears out. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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