Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[snow_wizard]

I can't wait till Day 2 and it shows cold rain

 

That usually doesn't happen any more.  The models are much improved from 10 years ago.

[MossMan]

Yeah that was good one too. High risk/high reward kind of battle ground setup. Never looked particularly cold down here.

I don’t remember anything good in Jan 2011 up here.

 

Edit: because the models busted!

[snow_wizard]

Day 6 past 4 runs

 

1 2 20 00z ECMWF Day 6 4 runs.gif

 

That high latitude lobe is much stronger on this run.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

 

[snow_wizard]

I don’t remember anything good in Jan 2011 up here.

 

That one was shown to be a big snow maker followed by cold and it kind of fizzled.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Day 7

 

Seasonably cool.

[GHweatherChris]

I love the Arctic stuff. Much more enjoyable and truly wintry.

And I am ok with the fact our opinions differ.

[MossMan]

Seasonably cool.

That’s how NWS Seattle (and Rich Marriott) is going to put it.

[snow_wizard]

Not only is the GOA stuff much better at day 7, but the upstream trough forcing the ridge is a lot deeper vs previous runs.

[Deweydog]

Phasing on the Euro still not too favorable with the pattern breaker the GFS is currently in love with. Might be a good thing as things continue to evolve over the next few days...

[snow_wizard]

Seasonably cool.

 

Oh please...

[GHweatherChris]

No blood shall be shed in the Continental "Air".

[snow_wizard]

Phasing on the Euro still not too favorable with the pattern breaker the GFS is currently in love with. Might be a good thing as things continue to evolve over the next few days...

 

This run is far superior to 24 hours ago though.

[MossMan]

Seasonably chilly.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I don’t remember anything good in Jan 2011 up here.

 

Edit: because the models busted!

 

You had at least 5 feet of hypothetical snow that month.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 Not yet

 

[bainbridgekid]

Early Jan 2011 has a special place in my heart for busted mid-range cold.

At one point that one showed 3 separate foot+ snowstorms inside 150 hours from strong lows coming in South of Seattle. The trough ended up digging too far offshore forcing the first low to come in well North of us around the North tip of Vancouver Island and the others followed suit. We got a brief but decent overrunning event (widespread 3-5 inches around most of Western Washington) and then a bunch of very mild rain and wind.

 

Never looked particularly cold though and was always a very tenuous situation that was highly depended on the exact track of the areas of low pressure.

[snow_wizard]

Huge change over AK vs last nights runs.  That was the main complaint everyone had about that run.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Need to start seeing timing move up.

[snow_wizard]

Day 8 Not yet

 

 

Wow you guys are picky.  This run is better in many ways than last nights.

[GHweatherChris]

Seasonably chilly.

Not for a Monday afternoon.

[snow_wizard]

Need to start seeing timing move up.

 

It's happening.  Take it to the bank.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9

 

[snow_wizard]

Nice trend on the Euro over the past 4 runs to bring the cold air closer.

 

Here I thought I as the only one who liked this run.  Tough crowd!

[TT-SEA]

Definitely took a step towards the GFS around D8.

 

Is it finally giving in? Maybe at least partially?

Probably going to end up compromising.

[Cloud]

Here I thought I as the only one who liked this run.  Tough crowd!

I'm loving it so far. 

[runninthruda206]

DAY 9!!!

[Deweydog]

Just never quite meets up with the energy dropping out of the NW Territories. Close though...

[luvssnow_spokane]

Wow you guys are picky.  This run is better in many ways than last nights.

Yes it is better. Better overall placement.

TONIGHT

 

PREVIOUS

[AbbyJr]

Phasing on the Euro still not too favorable with the pattern breaker the GFS is currently in love with. Might be a good thing as things continue to evolve over the next few days...

Its trends we look for in the long range. Euro has made huge steps towards the GFS tonight.

[Gradient Keeper]

I'll stick to what I mentioned two days ago. Saturday 00z runs is when we'll have a really, really good idea, but things are looking promising.

[luvssnow_spokane]

OMG!! Here it comes... aligning with GFS much better -  BRING IT!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Honestly what the EURO shows looks pretty plausible. It's not a very amplified pattern, so we aren't able to tap into the super cold stuff. Some nice cold onshore flow like 2002 is our best bet, but things could still trend colder. 

[Weiner Warrior]

Look at that Low!

[TT-SEA]

I'll stick to what I mentioned two days ago. Saturday 00z runs is when we'll have a really, really good idea, but things are looking promising.

Agreed.

[ShawniganLake]

Euro would lay down a good bit of snow in B.C. next Friday. I’ll take it. Though the trough doesn’t tap arctic air it is much better than any euro so far.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

 

[AbbyJr]

Wow you guys are picky.  This run is better in many ways than last nights.

Looking at this comparison, its absolutely crazy and bizarre that anybody would be complaining. 

 

00Z (Tonights)

 

 

12Z (Earlier today)

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'll stick to what I mentioned two days ago. Saturday 00z runs is when we'll have a really, really good idea, but things are looking promising.

 

Tuesday. 

[Esquimalt]

Euro would lay down a good bit of snow in B.C. next Friday. I’ll take it. Though the trough doesn’t tap arctic air it is much better than any euro so far.

Yeah a good bit everywhere except Vic lol