Deweydog Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Tuesday.MLK My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Day ten looks legit. Day 12 would have us in the icebox! Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Holy crap! I have never seen anything like that. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 NEEDS TO TREND EAST!!! My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Very little lowland snow on the 00Z ECMWF through day 10. Still too early to be confident for me. No doubt it will be colder than normal though. Also a possibility that the second shot could go a little farther west if the block continues to build to the northwest. We have seen that act before many times. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Day 11-12 on the EURO would be jaw dropping if we were to extrapolate out further. Hunch. 6z GFS moves timing up and is amazing. Colder runs ahead. Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!!❄ ❄ ☃ ❄ ❄ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 A very important feature of this run is the deep low at 170E. Much nicer than last night as well. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Very little lowland snow on the 00Z ECMWF through day 10. Still too early to be confident for me. No doubt it will be colder than normal though. Also a possibility that the second shot could go a little farther west if the block continues to build to the northwest. We have seen that act before many times.That b*tch is already cyclogenic at 240 hours. My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Day 11-12 on the EURO would be jaw dropping if we were to extrapolate out further. Hunch. 6z GFS moves timing up and is amazing. Colder runs ahead. Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!!❄ ❄ ☃ ❄ ❄ Not necessarily. That block is building to the northwest pretty fast at day 10. All speculation because day 10 will not end up exactly like that anyways. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Not necessarily. That block is building to the northwest pretty fast at day 10. All speculation because day 10 will not end up exactly like that anyways.I sure don't see it building to the northwest. I would like to see it a notch or two further east though. Yep all we can do is speculate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 I sure don't see it building to the northwest. I would like to see it a notch or two further east though.Run the loop. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Love him or hate him, but Tim is right. That is not an inside slider. That system is primed to dump a lot of cold air over the GOA. Who am I kidding, nobody loves Tim. My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 3 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 6z GFS in 2 hours 23 minutes! Night shift ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Nice to see some that sh*t actually verify. 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 MLKI'll be in San Diego that weekend. My vacation + the Dewey index + the long range GFS has me a little concerned I may miss something noteworthy. Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 I'll be in San Diego that weekend. My vacation + the Dewey index + the long range GFS has me a little concerned I may miss something noteworthy.That sucks. I’ll see what I can do for you but pushing it back to President’s Day gets into some sloppy sun angles. 2 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Love him or hate him, but Tim is right. That is not an inside slider. That system is primed to dump a lot of cold air over the GOA. Who am I kidding, nobody loves Tim. Maybe my kids?? **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 To be fair, it was a dud for the Portland metro area. It was pretty great for everyone north and south of PDX. That low going way south gave Eugene/southern valley and central OR a hell of a snowstorm though. Regionwide that month was pretty impressive, PDX getting missed in the middle of all that snow was technically a small detail in the grand scheme of things even though it pissed weenies here off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Maybe my kids?? Maybe. We’ll see what the EPS says about that. 3 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 It was pretty great for everyone north and south of PDX. That low going way south gave Eugene/southern valley and central OR a hell of a snowstorm though. Regionwide that month was pretty impressive, PDX getting missed in the middle of all that snow was technically a small detail in the grand scheme of things even though it pissed weenies here off.Definitely hurt to see everyone else score while we didn’t, but hopefully this year will be better if something snowy does ensue! 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 00Z EPS at day 8: **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Focusing on the short-mid range the Euro nearly complete caved to the GFS. Day 4-7 Ridge/evolving block is many notches stronger. Just after Day 5 the Alaskan vortex is shoved out. Excellent potential once that is kicked out of Alaska. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Focusing on the short-mid range the Euro nearly complete caved to the GFS. Day 4-7 Ridge/evolving block is many notches stronger. Just after Day 5 the Alaskan vortex is shoved out. Excellent potential once that is kicked out of Alaska. There has been lots of model changes for the first part of next week... across the board. I would say the models converged on a solution. Which obviously normally happens once you get within 7 days. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 00Z EPS at day 9... **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 We have gained the Euro and lost Tim and Matt! 3 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 We have gained the Euro and lost Tim and Matt!ECMWF still does not show meaningful lowland snow within 10 days. And the second shot is too far out. An over-baked block could send that offshore and that is not a pretty scenario. Lots of potential. But the details are very muddy. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 00Z EPS at day 10: **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 The GFS held steady, the GEM took small steps towards the GFS and the ECMWF nearly caved entirely to the GFS. Good progress. Not too concerned about not seeing huge snowstorms in the 200 hour+ range right now. Will worry about those details once we get the large scale stuff right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Definitely hurt to see everyone else score while we didn’t, but hopefully this year will be better if something snowy does ensue! Yep certainly sucked for us. Just the way it is sometimes, even in a good pattern some places just slip between the cracks and miss out. In the long run it does tend to mostly even out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 EPS is better. A step in the right direction. Block tilts Day 11-12. Bitter air is pushing south in BC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Major EPS improvment tonight even as early as hour 180. This is looking really solid now. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 EPS at day 13... strong signal at that range. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 EPS at day 13... strong signal at that range. It's closer and the airmass in BC/AB is FRIGID!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 I cannot wait until the EPS shows great stuff in the single digit day realm.. Enough with the whole 10+ day timeframe. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Night shift!! 43F and cloudy in downtown Springfield. 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 EPS 10-15 day mean: **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 I cannot wait until the EPS shows great stuff in the single digit day realm.. Enough with the whole 10+ day timeframe.I’d like to see some single digits on my thermometer, in real time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 EPS 10-15 day mean: Looks improved to me. I assume if things progress nicely that in a few days we'll see colder ensemble runs across the board with all model camps. Thanks, Tim for posting the EPS maps. 6z GFS in 1 hour 39 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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