Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[MossMan]

Yeah...it blows my mind that many would rather have endless gloom than bright, sunny, cold weather with snow on the ground. I have never gotten that. You can even detect the hatred for cold and snow in the 19th century newspaper accounts of our big bouts of winter we had back then.

They don’t like driving in it and it’s a big hassle...According to my cashier at Lowe’s this morning.

[TT-SEA]

Don't plan on having a garden either. It can freeze any day of the year in La Pine, even in July and August. I have personally witnessed a July frost in Sunriver.

 

 

Ouch!

 

That would be a deal killer for us.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Ever heard of the Donner Party?

 

Yeah... in the 19th century, climate control in living spaces was nowhere near as good as it was now, and people died of cold weather far more often. The winter of 1861-62 was a very harsh and unpleasant experience for natives and early settlers alike. They had a very valid reason to hate cold and snow back then.

I can't remember if it was a magazine article or a radio program, but a few years ago I read that nostalgia for winter was a relatively new phenomenon that has only happened since the Industrial Revolution and homes with central heating.

[Guest LaPineLurker]

I may work my way towards a larger town like Burns or something.  Heard it is really quiet and nice there.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Ouch!

 

That would be a deal killer for us.

 

What is that growing up the side of that fence?

[luvssnow_spokane]

In my humble opinion there is no such thing a bad winter, just bad clothes.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I may work my way towards a larger town like Burns or something.  Heard it is really quiet and nice there.

You might be in for a shock on how cold it can get there. Serious cold.

[TT-SEA]

What is that growing up the side of that fence?

Snow peas.

[weather_fan]

Newbie lucker here. Joined this group because of last Feb.

 

I have trouble understanding the graphs and jargon used in this group. It would great if someone can clear those for newbies like me. For starters what is the meaning of the following terms:

 

1. GFS

2. Euro

3. 18z, 12z, 0z

4.  Alaskan heights?

.....I will have more.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

The trees are so sporadic over here.  Figured I was at sea level.

Trees have nothing against warmth or low elevations. The Amazon Basin is low and summer-hot year round and has huge trees. The few intact old-growth lowland forests west of the Cascades have huge trees, and there's lots of second and third growth that's smaller but quite dense and lush.

 

The main thing trees can't tolerate is too little water. It's the dryness that's making the forests on the thin side where you are. If it gets cold enough the cold can stop tree growth, but you're nowhere near that cold in LaPine.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

They don’t like driving in it and it’s a big hassle...According to my cashier at Lowe’s this morning.

Maybe this is why:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EaksWCnHaDM

 

Or this:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qzBdW1OVcWw

 

We get way more snow here, but they do a better job of plowing the roads since it snows so much more, and most people here have AWD or 4 wheel drive and know how to drive in the snow.  And we do have some hills here.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Snow peas.

Yumm love those. Are they easy to grow? I miss growing a garden. We only grew basics like corn carrots cucumbers and potatoes.

[TT-SEA]

Yumm love those. Are they easy to grow? I miss growing a garden. We only grew basics like corn carrots cucumbers and potatoes.

Very easy and you can plant them really early. We are usually picking by the first of July. And stage a second round at that time for September.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Newbie lucker here. Joined this group because of last Feb.

 

I have trouble understanding the graphs and jargon used in this group. It would great if someone can clear those for newbies like me. For starters what is the meaning of the following terms:

 

1. GFS

2. Euro

3. 18z, 12z, 0z

4.  Alaskan heights?

.....I will have more.

GFS = Global Forecast System, the old name for the American forecast model now called the FV3

EURO = the global weather model based in Europe.  Unlike the American model, it is run by a private company and the contents of it are harder to come by, and much of the maps are only available by subscription to paid sites.  Though some of them will let you post their maps on places like this.

18Z etc.  That is the times that the models are run, Z being Zulu time.  18Z is 10AM our time, 0Z is 4PM our time, etc.  That is not when we start seeing the runs, but when the data is collected for them, I think.

 

Alaskan heights just means high pressure, or lack thereof, over Alaska.  

[seattleweatherguy]

Newbie lucker here. Joined this group because of last Feb.

 

I have trouble understanding the graphs and jargon used in this group. It would great if someone can clear those for newbies like me. For starters what is the meaning of the following terms:

 

1. GFS

2. Euro

3. 18z, 12z, 0z

4.  Alaskan heights?

.....I will have more.

 

GFS global forecast system

Euro ECWF

18z is 3 or 4 pm run depending on daylight savings time

12z is 9 or 10 am depending on dst

00z is 9 or 10 pm depending on dst

 

Alaskan heights going up can help cool or cold air going down into PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Even the 18z shows SW winds with thicknesses in the mid 520’s. Generally you’re gonna hit the 40’s with those numbers.

Yeah at Day 7 not too likely to change to colder unless the low is weaker Day 4-5.

[Requiem]

Newbie lucker here. Joined this group because of last Feb.

 

I have trouble understanding the graphs and jargon used in this group. It would great if someone can clear those for newbies like me. For starters what is the meaning of the following terms:

 

1. GFS

2. Euro

3. 18z, 12z, 0z

4.  Alaskan heights?

.....I will have more.

 

Alrighty, I'm no expert but I think I can answer some of these questions. Welcome to the forum!

 

1. The GFS (Global Forecasting System) is a weather modeling system used by the National Weather Service here in America. It is an American model and one of two main models used in long, mid, and short-term forecasting.

 

2. The European model is a (as the name suggests) European weather model run by the ECMWF. Typically considered the most accurate model in the world, it is considering amazing for short term precip and surface dynamics. A very valuable model, but has its shortcomings like every other.

 

3. Those are all times. Zulu time, to be precise. The GFS updates 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z, while the EURO (full-range) runs 00Z and 12Z.

 

4. Higher Alaskan heights usually help usher cold air into our area. Lower heights typically don't. That's why you'll here a lot of cheering for an Aleutian Ridge on here.

 

Other terms that are helpful are mesoscale model (which is a model such as the NAM, helpful for short-range forecasting and precip intensity and all that stuff), as well as trough which is typically an area of lower heights.

 

I hope that answers your questions, anyone can correct me if I'm not accurate. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

You might be in for a shock on how cold it can get there. Serious cold.

 

I've often thought they should rename Burns, "Freezes." Would be much more accurate.

 

[TT-SEA]

Looking through my summer pics is making me smile right now... best place on Earth when its nice here.

 

[TT-SEA]

But winter can be beautiful too...

 

[Deweydog]

Newbie lucker here. Joined this group because of last Feb.

 

I have trouble understanding the graphs and jargon used in this group. It would great if someone can clear those for newbies like me. For starters what is the meaning of the following terms:

 

1. GFS

2. Euro

3. 18z, 12z, 0z

4. Alaskan heights?

.....I will have more.

1. It’s the American statistical forecast model that runs four times a day.

 

2. European model that runs twice. Generally viewed as the king of the hill.

 

3. Reference to Greenwich mean time and the time each model run initialized.

 

4. Right now it’s a reference to upper level ridging in Alaska. Typically the coldest PNW patterns are associated with strong ridging up there (high upper level heights) while here heights are exceptionally low associated with the cold upper level air mass.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3. Those are all times. Zulu time, to be precise.

Otherwise known as Greenwich or Universal time, 8 hours ahead of Pacific Standard Time. So 00z = 18 hours local time, i.e. 6:00 pm (on the previous day).

[AbbyJr]

Because the TPV is no longer in AK (a low in a AK isn’t necessarily the vortex itself) and there’s help from the Scandinavian ridge in keeping the cold pool on our side of the pole.

How does one differentiate a low in AK from the TPV? 

[Front Ranger]

Some pretty crazy analogs to the 18z run.  A lot of oldies, but goodies!  Interesting to note the Jan 2005 analog proves that 1950 would also be an analog, because 1950 was a very close match to 2005 in spite of 2005 bombing out.  For some reason the CPC stopped using analogs from 1950 a few years ago.

 

 

BECAUSE THEY HATE US.

[fubario]

The trees are so sporadic over here.  Figured I was at sea level.

Wait...you thought you were at sea level, but you're at 4k ft?? Were u blindfolded  when you arrived there? lol

[Prairiedog]

I imagine LaPine is going to be seeing some snow soon..

Been snowing there on and off since this am.  Have friends that live there.  They probably will be getting a lot more.  I think she said they had an advisory out for 4-12"

[MossMan]

Maybe this is why:

 

 

Or this:

 

 

We get way more snow here, but they do a better job of plowing the roads since it snows so much more, and most people here have AWD or 4 wheel drive and know how to drive in the snow. And we do have some hills here.

The one car in Portland that plays pinball with every single obstacle on the hill is still one of my all time favorites!

Then there is this footage of DomeBuster trying to get his Jeep out of a snow bank! Also a favorite!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Great pics Tim. I love it here from mid-April to mid-July. We don't stay green all summer down here like you do. 

[TT-SEA]

Wait...you thought you were at sea level, but you're at 4k ft?? Were u blindfolded  when you arrived there? lol

 

 

That is pretty funny.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The one car in Portland that plays pinball with every single obstacle on the hill is still one of my all time favorites!

Then there is this footage of DomeBuster trying to get his Jeep out of a snow bank! Also a favorite!

 

Classic!!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Wait...you thought you were at sea level, but you're at 4k ft?? Were u blindfolded when you arrived there? lol

He thought high desert had a different meaning.

[Front Ranger]

While we all wait for the 00z:

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vz91QpgUjFc

 

Really frustrating that 228 people dislike that video.

[MossMan]

Really frustrating that 228 people dislike that video.

I bet the Lowe’s lady was one of those 228 people.

[Meatyorologist]

I think the 18z is off it’s rocker. None of the models had showed what it’s showing after about 260 or so. It completely flips the ridge and trough around on us. I hope that’s not a trend.

Here’s a little lesson: don’t get too worked up over the long range GFS.

[DamascusGuy]

Good win by the Hawks.  I heard maybe snow in a few days?  

 

Just a lurker here?

I’ve got a vacation home near Sunriver and our elevation is near 4,200 ft. Took these photos 2-27-2019 after a big snow dump. We had 18” of snow in our area after the storm passed by. This area gets big time snow at times and most of us love it and those that don’t normally don’t stay around long. We put heat cables on our roof to protect from ice dams which can really be a problem in this area. The photo I attached shows a house with huge icicles and no cables. Our home used to get these after big snow dumps and now we don’t. We love Central Oregon and the fun weather that it offers year round.

[Requiem]

Ok, Mark's RECAP: Too early to really know anything and he's not calling anything yet, but he thinks there's a good chance something interesting happens next week for Portland. If EURO is better he'll likely be more excited for anything. 

 

Seems very similar to his statement at about the same time frame before the February event.

[yellowstone]

NWS Seattle currently calling for 500ft snow levels next Sunday in the EPSL.

Ok, I’ll bite. I’m familiar with the forecast discussion, but what is the EPSL? Link?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Ok, I’ll bite. I’m familiar with the forecast discussion, but what is the EPSL? Link?

east puget sound lowlands

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Ok, I’ll bite. I’m familiar with the forecast discussion, but what is the EPSL? Link?

East Puget sound lowlands

 

Edit: we need a glossary for times like these. I would do it but I have the prose of an 8 year old.

[Frontal Snowsquall]