TacomaWaWx Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Doesn't make sense how much of an outlier the Euro op. is. Either all the other models are gonna cave to the euro op or the other way around. Wtf is going on. 2 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 12Z EPS is not only colder than the ECMWF... its actually colder than its 00Z run. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Doesn't make sense how much of an outlier the Euro op. is.Difference is in Alaska. Small differences up there have huge impacts on us in this pattern. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 12Z EPS is not only colder than the ECMWF... its actually colder than its 00Z run.So....now what? Cheese and crackers this is gonna drive me crazy. 1 Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 12Z EPS is not only colder than the ECMWF... its actually colder than its 00Z run.EPS has ESP 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 EPS still showing Tuesday being the coldest day... just the like the 00Z run. It starts to moderate by day 9. That could be overrunning snow though. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Best bet at this point is to go with the ensembles since the operational is struggling to handle the pattern change. It’s better for us that the EPS agrees with the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 The EPS says the Op is a big liar.MAPS Please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Models struggle with these rare setups. The models pooped on the first of February 2019 six days out...Remember that! 2 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 MAPS PleaseI just posted a comparison at the coldest point. See above. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Best bet at this point is to go with the ensembles since the operational is struggling to handle the pattern change. It’s better for us that the EPS agrees with the GFS. Hopefully. It's true though I feel like we all pay a lot of attention to the operational models instead of the ensembles. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Models struggle with these rare setups. The models pooped on the first of February 2019 six days out...Remember that! the discussions were having on here now and the model pullback drama is almost an exact copy of last late January. Just was looking at those threads the other day. LOTS of upset angry posts a couple days before the hammer came down on us. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 So....now what? Cheese and crackers this is gonna drive me crazy. Im about to lose my mind myself here lol. Lots of uncertainty still! Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Arctic air makes a short visit to WA on day 8 into day 9 per the EPS. By days 10 and 11 its significantly warmer than on day 8 and 9. This is also a great time to use the control run as a guide to see if the operational run is on its own. The control run is a complete train wreck... just like the operational run. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Im about to lose my mind myself here lol. Lots of uncertainty still!Just a little? Why don’t you (the models) just meet me in the middle? 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Arctic air makes a short visit to WA on day 8 into day 9 per the EPS. By days 10 and 11 its significantly warmer than on day 8 and 9. This is also a great time to use the control run as a guide to see if the operational run is on its own. The control run is a complete train wreck... just like the operational run. Seems like the Euro control run has been swinging more wildly than just about any model with this. 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Best bet at this point is to go with the ensembles since the operational is struggling to handle the pattern change. It’s better for us that the EPS agrees with the GFS. Sort of. It's more of a compromise for Sun-Tue. A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 EPS warming up faster after day 10 than previous runs. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 12z ECMWF 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 GFS, GEM, EPS, ECMWF 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 The Europeans are finally breaking bread with us. Way to go!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Screenshot 2020-01-06 at 11.39.53 AM.png GFS, GEM, EPS, ECMWF The GEM looks like it wants to do bad things to the EPS. A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 I recommend everybody plant a winter veggie garden next fall. It's a good emotional hedge at times like these. No extreme cold, and your garden thrives. Or, extreme cold kills your garden but you get to enjoy the unusual weather. 3 Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 The NAM will be the King model! 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Seems like the Euro control run has been swinging more wildly than just about any model with this.The control run is just an unperturbed ensemble member. 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 EPS warming up faster after day 10 than previous runs.It’s colder after D10 vs 00z, actually, with more cold in closer geographic proximity. Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Looked like Skykomish picked up 5 or 6 inches of snow yesterday. Crazy how much snow that place gets for being under 1,000 feet. 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 And the EPS is much colder by late Tuesday... EPS ECMWF Nice, build that CRB Cold Pool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just a little? Why don’t you (the models) just meet me in the middle? I could make them meet in the middle. Just gotta grab my easel and start painting. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Animation of the 12z EPS 850mb difference from 00z. 12z definitely colder: 3 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 It’s colder after D10 vs 00z, actually, with more cold in closer geographic proximity. Yeah... it ends up keeping it a little cooler in the long range. It seems to be stuck at 318 hours... but the block is pretty weak by then like previous runs showed. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Animation of the 12z EPS 850mb difference from 00z. 12z definitely colder: Note how much warmer Alaska is on the 12z versus 00z in the animation posted previously. The result of this amplification is a deeper western trough and sharper SE ridge. 2 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Animation of the 12z EPS 850mb difference from 00z. 12z definitely colder: Definitely colder at the coldest point too... which might be important. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 So are we marking this down as a winter cancel or no? Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 So are we marking this down as a winter cancel or no? It's TWF. If one bad model comes out it's winter cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Note how much warmer Alaska is on the 12z versus 00z in the animation posted previously. The result of this amplification is a deeper western trough and sharper SE ridge.Wow, that's nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 If the GFS ends up being correct with this episode, then whatever software - hardware - firmware update they did last year was a GREAT investment and utilization of taxpayer monies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 WOW; it is a lock even the cotton farmers, tobacco farmers can make hay out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 12z JMA still on board the Arctic train. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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