Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TacomaWaWx]

Snowed for a bit, changed to rain then back to snow. Precip had died off now. Currently 36. 0.06" of precip today.

[Jesse]

Comparing the 12Z GEFS to the 00Z, you have to squint pretty hard to see major differences.

 

Interestingly the 00Z ensembles have more members between -15 and -20C at PDX than the 12Z ensembles, but the mean is slightly warmer on the 00Z because there are a few warm members that were not present on the 12Z chart.

 

12z:

 

00z:

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I'll take 30 degrees heavy snow over light snow and 19 all day long.

Seconded. Plus, a depressing large number of models have been putting Bellingham in a “stink hole” of just about the least snow of any lowland area for several days now. Even though it was clown range, the apparent emerging consensus had me a little concerned. The “stink hole” seems gone from the most recent batch.

 

Anyhow, more runs to come. Things will doubtless keep bouncing around a bit from run to run.

[MossMan]

Well we did have about 3hrs of great snow in 2011 before the southerlies kicked in. And didn’t we have a nice February event that year as well?

[Perturbed Member]

Well...the bomb cyclone stayed in the same location for days and days (actually went a bit south). Seems unrealistic for this one to go too far north. We'll see though.

 

look at the 500mb differences between the 00z GFS and the 12z. 

 

 

 

The blocking ridge to the west has been pushed a bit further NW, doesn't suppress things as well. The ULL/trough over us has pushed further east. The 00z GFS still gives a lot of snow to PDX but another shift in this same direction with equal magnitude would start to get pretty ugly. Hopefully it is just noise but IMO it does seem like it could become a trend. 

 

Need to check ensembles to see where this run sits.

[Requiem]

look at the 500mb differences between the 00z GFS and the 12z. 

 

 

 

The blocking ridge to the west has been pushed a bit further NW, doesn't suppress things as well. The ULL/trough over us has pushed further east. The 00z GFS still gives a lot of snow to PDX but another shift in this same direction with equal magnitude would start to get pretty ugly. Hopefully it is just noise but IMO it does seem like it could become a trend. 

 

Would be a silly way to ruin the fun for sure. Hopefully not a trend.

[Blizzard777]

Snowed for a bit, changed to rain then back to snow. Precip had died off now. Currently 36. 0.06" of precip today.

35* across the bay 

.06 as well

Wasn’t there to witness the state of the precipitation 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Abbotsford has thickness drop to 497 on the 0Z. Ensemble mean bottoms out at -17.6 for 850s. Not a good sign

 

A toasty 501 dm thickness in Victoria, it was 499 in an earlier run.

[Deweydog]

Would be a silly way to ruin the fun for sure. Hopefully not a trend.

It’s what can easily happen when you don’t have a strong anti-cyclone to help drive it south and west.

 

Flatiron can probably explain it better...

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like fun times ahead! wether it lasts 4-5 days or longer is too hard to tell right now. Either way looks like next week could be pretty epic still.

[MossMan]

Looks like fun times ahead! wether it lasts 4-5 days or longer is too hard to tell right now. Either way looks like next week could be pretty epic still.

Matt is not on board.

[Deweydog]

Matt is not on board.

Sunday’s 18z.......................

[TacomaWaWx]

Matt is not on board.

We're f*cked?

[MossMan]

Temp down to 30!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snow knocked out the internet for a bit. Winding down now. A cool 1".

[Deweydog]

Almost 10pm!!!

 

#pray4pdx

[Chewbacca Defense]

Sorry you had to plug your car in.

 

I'm not, just plugging in the coolant heater so I have a warm car.  Its a diesel so it would take forever to warm up otherwise.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 or 6 days of cold and snow to a classic transition event is a logical solution. Last February spoiled us.

[Gradient Keeper]

Comparing the 12Z GEFS to the 00Z, you have to squint pretty hard to see major differences.

 

Interestingly the 00Z ensembles have more members between -15 and -20C at PDX than the 12Z ensembles, but the mean is slightly warmer on the 00Z because there are a few warm members that were not present on the 12Z chart.

 

12z: 0A2BBE56-6532-48E8-988E-BF65056EAB94.png

 

00z: 3CFBE653-ED14-4142-8FEE-6EDA22EC1A10.png

Yep. Room to turn even colder!

 

Yakima ensembles. Prolonged backdoor cold and look at all of the cold members to -15c suggesting a possible reload backdoor blast. Hmmm.. Portland BARELY above freezing and when you factor in the deep snow cover. We won't make 30. The Dalles only warms to 27 degrees for high temp. Surface temps for Yakima doesn't warm above 23 degrees.

[MossMan]

Did we lose Jim as well?

[OysterPrintout]

look at the 500mb differences between the 00z GFS and the 12z. 

 

 

 

The blocking ridge to the west has been pushed a bit further NW, doesn't suppress things as well. The ULL/trough over us has pushed further east. The 00z GFS still gives a lot of snow to PDX but another shift in this same direction with equal magnitude would start to get pretty ugly. Hopefully it is just noise but IMO it does seem like it could become a trend. 

 

Need to check ensembles to see where this run sits.

ensemble looks better to me 

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

And nothing even remotely nearby on the radar, so don't expect anything for a while at least.

Yeah, some faint stuff starting to show on the west side of VI.  The trajectory isn't right for us but hopefully its a sign of more to come.

[luvssnow_spokane]

EURO!

[runninthruda206]

Here we go!

[Perturbed Member]

Seconded. Plus, a depressing large number of models have been putting Bellingham in a “stink hole” of just about the least snow of any lowland area for several days now. Even though it was clown range, the apparent emerging consensus had me a little concerned. The “stink hole” seems gone from the most recent batch.

 

Anyhow, more runs to come. Things will doubtless keep bouncing around a bit from run to run.

 

You're in a good spot right now IMO. I think BLI will do pretty well.

[Deweydog]

STNEMEVORPMI ORUE ROJAM

[Perturbed Member]

ensemble looks better to me 

 

 

Yeah ensembles appear to look fine. Better than the OP IMO.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

!YAS TNOD UOY

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

STNEMEVORPMI ORUE ROJAM

Conflicting reports!

[runninthruda206]

where is that low gonna fall on sunday!!! i need to know!!!!

[Jesse]

STNEMEVORPMI ORUE ROJAM

WOLLOF OT TCA HGUOT A SAW Z21...WONK T’NOD I

[Jbolin]

STNEMEVORPMI ORUE ROJAM

Make Richard Simmons great again.

[Deweydog]

PDX!!!!!!

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=neU0PWenT9Q

[Jesse]

Make Richard Simmons great again.

Sounds like you’ve been around for awhile. What was your old username?

[Lisa0527]

Is there still hope?

[MossMan]

Make Richard Simmons great again.

[Requiem]

Is there still hope?

 

Um....the hope would be the crazy cold within 240 hours, I think.

[seattleweatherguy]

Is there still hope?

Pray.

[Deweydog]

Him on David Letterman was some of the funniest around.

[TacomaWaWx]

5 or 6 days of cold and snow to a classic transition event is a logical solution. Last February spoiled us.

Seems like a very plausible scenario. I'm fine just having a few days of snow.