Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[wxmet]

Out to 72 hrs, the ECMWF has a stronger block than the GFS the PV lobe is digging further SW. 

[Cloud]

where is that low gonna fall on sunday!!! i need to know!!!!

Regardless of where the low is on Sunday it still won’t bring lowland snow, the models have been very consistent with that and temps are in the low 40s. The cold air won’t rush in until after the low passes.

[OysterPrintout]

Probably gonna jinx it because it's still early but it looks good so far and even though it caved to the GFS on the earlier pattern I think we'd all still prefer to have the KING on our side.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Out to 72 hrs, the ECMWF has a stronger block than the GFS the PV lobe is digging further SW.

 

Slightly colder as well

[Front Ranger]

Not to turn the screws any further but these battle ground setups are starting to take on a bit of a 2011 look.

 

Sleep tight everybody!!!!

 

You're not wrong. There's still enough time for things to trend that way...or reverse again.

[Front Ranger]

I like January 1998 as an eventual realistic analog down here with some subtle differences. Probably a best case scenario for us.

 

All just fun speculation...

 

But you didn't say that after this morning's runs, did you? 

[SnarkyGoblin]

Out to 72 hrs, the ECMWF has a stronger block than the GFS the PV lobe is digging further SW. 

Yep.  Stronger even than last night's spectacular EURO run.

[TacomaWaWx]

35 here in Tacoma...maybe we will have our first freeze since 12/26 tonight.

[Omegaraptor]

5 or 6 days of cold and snow to a classic transition event is a logical solution. Last February spoiled us.

To be fair, last Feb did not get Arctic cold at any time, unlike what’s coming up. Eugene did not get below 24°F that entire time despite the epic foot and a half snow event there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Probably gonna jinx it because it's still early but it looks good so far and even though it caved to the GFS on the earlier pattern I think we'd all still prefer to have the KING on our side.

 

Absolutely.

[seattleweatherguy]

Record cold temps or warmer and snowier!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

January 1998 triggers some painful childhood memories. 

[Cloud]

Already looking colder on the Euro. Stronger block maintained into hour 96.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Day 4 for sure colder

[SouthHillFrosty]

EURO EURO EURO

[wxmet]

Similar low track to the GFS for Sunday's event with a C-zone developing after the low passes.

[Jesse]

To be fair, last Feb did not get Arctic cold at any time, unlike what’s coming up. Eugene did not get below 24°F that entire time despite the epic foot and a half snow event there.

*Makes sweeping statement about whole month for entire region to someone over 100 miles north of him

 

*Uses station over 100 miles south of him to back up said statement

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM was not bad overall. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Already looking colder on the Euro. Stronger block maintained into hour 96.

Yep ... better

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene will always have 12/8/13.

[Requiem]

*Makes sweeping statement about whole month for entire region to someone over 100 miles north of him

 

*Uses station over 100 miles south of him to back up said statement

 

I find the fact that Eugene never got below 33 during their big snowstorm fascinating. Proof you don't need a perfect amount of cold air to deliver a great snow dump if you have the synoptic setup. 

[Omegaraptor]

Finally, from the 00z GFS ensemble member snowfall vs. 18z...

 

KBLI - 85% 4 inches or more (same), 70% 7 inches or more (+20%)

 

KPAE - 95% 4 inches or more (+5%), 65% 7 inches or more (+45%)

 

KPDX - 80% 4 inches or more (+10%), 55% 7 inches or more (-5%)

 

Here's the chart for KSEA. Ends up being about a 10% increase for both groups of totals.

 

Trends north.

[Requiem]

Trends north.

 

Oh stop, it's fine for now. The fact that we got more members on the GFS for at least four inches is a better sign than I could have hoped for, considering there seemed to be a noticeable amount of 18z runs with very little snow for PDX.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Here comes the mother load of cold!

[Esquimalt]

Fair amount of more snow around Western WA on Monday.

 

That’s a beauty of a convergence zone over my house

[Omegaraptor]

Arctic air needs a passport

[Jesse]

I find the fact that Eugene never got below 33 during their big snowstorm fascinating. Proof you don't need a perfect amount of cold air to deliver a great snow dump if you have the synoptic setup.

 

Sure, but there were definitely a few different shots of arctic air into the region last February. The details of one event at one location aside.

[Requiem]

Sure, but there were definitely a few different shots of arctic air into the region last February. The details of one event at one location aside.

 

Oh, of course. I was just exalting that particular snowstorm. I believe parts of N. Wa had pretty frigid air that month.

[Jesse]

Oh, of course. I was just exalting that particular snowstorm. I believe parts of N. Wa had pretty frigid air that month.

No worries, your response was fine. I was challenging Omega’s claim that nobody saw arctic air last February, but unfortunately he has a tendency to move on as if nothing’s happened when his claims are challenged.

[luterra]

I'm one of those folks who only shows up here when things get interesting...

 

The mid-week low has completely disappeared at hr 120, will see how that progresses.

[wxmet]

PV is further south and west and the lift associated with it along with the onshore flow looks to bring scattered snow showers regionally on the ECMWF.

[Front Ranger]

Big differences upstream with the Euro compared to GFS/GEM. Doesn't have that low digging into ridge south of the Aleutians at day 5.

[Skagit Weather]

The cold air is just slowly trickling in on the Euro.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Totals from 4PM Saturday through 4PM Monday...

 

 

Looks like about 6-10" here. I'll live...

[Perturbed Member]

Looks really good for western WA. Going into the cold with some snow cover. Too much shadowing for PDX to get anything once it is cold enough, the standard drill for cold showery NW flow. Great for snow for places with some elevation though. I think you'll do ok k%%.

 

[Omegaraptor]

The super cold air just gets stuck at the 49th parallel.

[Requiem]

Now where is that midweek low, is the question?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Definitely a little warmer at the surface for Puget Sound on Monday.

 

 

Interestingly it is essentially the same down here. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Serious lob of  cold coming in off the pacific. Could spin up a nice little low of Vancouver Island with that. 
 

TONIGHT

 

PREVIOUS

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Totals from 4PM Saturday through 4PM Monday...

 

 

Looks like the timing has moved up slightly, a bit more inline with the GFS now. Also looks like Vancouver, BC and the Fraser Valley could get slammed with snow going into this. Would be nice to see the timing continue to move up, seems to correlate with the best snowfall going into this event.