jaster220 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Trends in the GEFS ensemble members of the SLP track now starting to show it tracking thru S IN...the HP to the north seems to be growing a little stronger. "Bless You" GEFS.. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Looks like I'm in the sweet spot for Freezing rain on all the models. Hopefully the storm overcomes the warmer air aloft. For the first wave? I think if the 2 wave option plays out, you will do ok on wave 2. I'm the one sweating the ice ain't nice issue all the way around. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Man, this storm has so much moisture in mby, that if it was all snow, I'd be measuring this in ft. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Looks like the CMC went SE...... Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 For the first wave? I think if the 2 wave option plays out, you will do ok on wave 2. I'm the one sweating the ice ain't nice issue all the way around. I just hope no ice. I think a few miles N/S are going to make a difference for a lot of people. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 "Bless You" GEFS.. Another look sans the busyness of the individual members. Location/strength of that HP is gonna be key as to Tom's hopes that progression of CAA could be under-modeled: 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Another look sans the busyness of the individual members. Location/strength of that HP is gonna be key as to Tom's hopes that progression of CAA could be under-modeled: 20200108 6z GEFS_mslp_anomaly_trends fh120-h84.gifYep, major role on that HP and how strong it holds in. Notice that SE turn it takes on that last loop. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 12z CMC = ice storm for me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 12z GEFS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Canadian huge ice for some areas 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Ukie blasts Chicago with a ton of snow from the 2nd wave. Clips eastern Iowa with the first, missing Iowa City and CR to just barely to the east. Sure hope that shifts back NW just a tad like it was showing. Still plenty of variability in the track and what happens between wave 1 and 2. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Trends aren’t really our friend, particularly with the second wave trending ever so slightly faster. That’s the deal breaker, the speed of the second wave relative to the first. It needs to slow down or we get missed to the south and wind up with nothing. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Really starting to downplay any snow around here. Maybe 1". I won't complain as we've had our share, but many parts of Eastern and Southeastern Nebraska that keep getting missed look to get missed again. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 With the UK mostly losing the first wave now for Iowa, this whole thing has one foot out the door. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Insider's comments from LOT office.. While a primarily rain event is very much in the cards with a painful miss just north/northwest, it's still well within the envelope of possibility for the deformation snows to nail much of the Chicago metro at this range, particularly I-55 and northwest. As has already been mentioned, there have been important changes in the handling of the southern wave. Also, convection has been known to mess with mass fields of systems, along with the possibility of robbing some of the moisture transport. And there will be a ton of convection south of here with this system. There very well could be an area of warning criteria ice somewhere in interior northern Illinois. However, as laid out in Carlaw's AFD, there are so many points of uncertainty with that aspect of forecast 3 days out. There's reason to doubt huge ice accums with very heavy precip rates forecast, and possibility convection causes more sleet. That said, with the strengthening northerly winds Friday night into Saturday, it won't take huge ice accums to cause significant issues with falling tree limbs and power outages. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Insider's comments from LOT office..The 12z Ukie really develops the defo zone all the way down in OK and tracks thru most of MO (esp STL) in a NNE fashion throughout IL/SE WI/NW IN and it looks like S MI gets into the cold sector. Let's see what the Euro shows in a bit. Edit: Ukie spits out about 1.10" qpf in the defo band with temps in the 20's for Chicago and across N IL into C IL. Heaviest band of snow looks like it sets up from Springfield/Champaign Urbana/Chicago for IL members. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 12z GEFS... I noticed that despite the favorable trends of the GEFS MSLP position for the 2nd wave, it still is leaning way NW with the snow shield. Most of those don't even have much snow across SMI. Op GFS has more snow south, and the 12z Ukie looks much more favorable for both your place and mine fwiw. Edit: I guess the weaker members are snowy for SMI, it's the stronger members mostly across NMI 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 The 12z Ukie really develops the defo zone all the way down in OK and tracks thru most of MO (esp STL) in a NNE fashion throughout IL/SE WI/NW IN and it looks like S MI gets into the cold sector. Let's see what the Euro shows in a bit. Haha, thinking and typing simultaneously about that 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 I noticed that despite the favorable trends of the GEFS MSLP position for the 2nd wave, it still is leaning way NW with the snow shield. Most of those don't even have much snow across SMI. Op GFS has more snow south, and the 12z Ukie looks much more favorable for both your place and mine fwiw. Edit: I guess the weaker members are snowy for SMI, it's the stronger members mostly across NMIThe Ukie has been handling the ULL much better and with more consistency. I would imagine the Euro follows suit. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if it amps up and tracks right over head again like yesterday's 12z run. The positive about the HP to the north is that it is lining up almost due north of the storm which isn't allowing this storm to cut even farther NW. Our problem with previous storms were that the HP's to our north were sliding east out ahead of the system which allowed storms to cut W/NW of here. I don't see it being an issue this time around. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 12z CMC mean Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Euro looks weaker and closer to GFS at 72 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 The Ukie has been handling the ULL much better and with more consistency. I would imagine the Euro follows suit. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if it amps up and tracks right over head again like yesterday's 12z run. The positive about the HP to the north is that it is lining up almost due north of the storm which isn't allowing this storm to cut even farther NW. Our problem with previous storms were that the HP's to our north were sliding east out ahead of the system which allowed storms to cut W/NW of here. I don't see it being an issue this time around. Glad your confidence is high from this range on that. Certainly agree and have said many times that we can't seem to get the classic High-over-Low scenario to show up for us. Perhaps we will see it this time, eh? Fwiw, WPC yesterday afternoon doubled-down on the main action staying more SE and didn't jump on the shift NW in the models (unlike a certain office I won't mention): 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Is that the king caving? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 At Clinton GEM still running NW with 12z GEFS I see. So which models are in the NW camp vs the more SE camp (talking wave 2)? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Woo, Euro back nw. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Euro came back NW with the 2nd wave. once again... YES PLEASE! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Euro makes no sense. HP to the north is too strong. It will adjust more SE later tanite or tomorrow. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Euro with some impressive snow rates from 6pm to midnight Saturday. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 As I like to do, I was watching the Euro 500 mb maps come in and it was obvious it would be going back nw. The distance between the northern and southern waves increased a bit again.... not as much as 12z yesterday, but certainly better than last night. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Euro with 2" from wave 1 for IC/CR then about 6" more for wave 2. I'd be a happy customer if that played out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 At Clinton GEM still running NW with 12z GEFS I see. So which models are in the NW camp vs the more SE camp (talking wave 2)?The NAM and GFS are the furthest SE at the moment. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 I'd split the difference. I'm going to miss out on heavy snow by 2 counties and I'll be squarely in the Ice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 12z Euro.... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 The NAM and GFS are the furthest SE at the moment.You have to consider how the atmosphere will overall be in play during that timeframe. Euro will follow these 2 eventually. Its playing catch up. It did the same thing last time, where the GFS was the winner. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Tom, I can’t see KC on that map. Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Tom, I can’t see KC on that map. Lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 As I like to do, I was watching the Euro 500 mb maps come in and it was obvious it would be going back nw. The distance between the northern and southern waves increased a bit again.... not as much as 12z yesterday, but certainly better than last night. Reading 500mb maps is not my forte, what specifically do you look for on these? Do you mind posting some maps? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 12z Euro.... Yuck, and (sigh) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Yuck, and (sigh) It basically followed suit to yesterdays 12z and last nights 00z run was a carbon copy of the previous days 00z run. Isn't it weird how that works out? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Should be some interesting AFD's this afternoon. still like where I am at. Happy with 3-5 and still potential to be a Big one 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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