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Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

snow_wizard

By snow_wizard
in West of the Rockies

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Jesse
Jesse

Some views of the cabin we’ve been staying at. About 12 miles west of Bend. Definitely getting my snow and cold fix out here.        

SilverFallsAndrew
SilverFallsAndrew

A lot of thoughts tonight. First the weather. Absolutely gorgeous day in NE Oklahoma today. Awoke to dissipating high clouds and a heavy frost up in Nowata County. Skies completely cleared by mid-morn

ShawniganLake
ShawniganLake

Max depth was around 19” 

Posted Images

Prairiedog Community Regular

Prairiedog

Posted
Posted

00z WRF-GFS 1.33km Hi Res

Snowfall Totals through 4 PM Tuesday

 

3-5" PDX metro. NICE! Then the bigger storm Wednesday-Thursday!

 

or_snow24.72.0000.gif

I guess this will be a good test for the WRF.  I haven't seen it be a model I have a lot of confidence on.  Would be nice if it performs.  This will be very interesting when this is all over to compare all the models and see if we can get a better feel for that they can or can't do well.  I'm sure there are secret government NWS people down in a basement working on it now.  Expect leaks soon.  ICON and GEM will win the day.   Wouldn't that be something. 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

12Z ICON did shift west with the low later in the week.   Pretty much takes away the snow it showed for Seattle on Thursday on the 00Z run.

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_35.png

 

 

06Z GFS showed a better set up...

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_20.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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FroYoBro Grand Master

FroYoBro

Posted
Posted

Last 3 GFS runs now show this low in about the same position south of PDX. The WRF seemed to think this track would produce snow in PDX. Still think it is more likely to be snow in the air than anything that accumulates but it is something to watch.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_6.png

 

Yeah, I think we will at least get to see some wet flakes fall at the peak. 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

12z GFS clearly shows the CZ sliding south down the Sound during the evening and night.

 

Euro is really the only one that keeps it north. Would be nice for the 12z to change that.

 

 

WRF shows it from Olympia eastward around midnight.   ECMWF shows it will be from Everett/Lynnwood eastward at that time.

 

Ridiculous difference for something that will happen in about 12 hours.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Skagit Weather Veteran

Skagit Weather

Posted
Posted

Most recent WRF continues to refuse to show snow here while every other model (GFS, Euro, HRRR, NAM) now show at least an inch. If I hadn't seen the WRF fail I would be more worried, but still a little unsettling.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Yeah that is about the perfect track for PDX on the 12z GFS. Still 84 hrs out thuogh..

 

12Z GFS continued a trend started by the 00Z run to weaken that low and bring it in much farther south.   Takes away the big snow event that some previous runs and the 00Z ECMWF showed for the Seattle and Vancouver BC areas at that time.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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FroYoBro Grand Master

FroYoBro

Posted
Posted

12Z GFS continued a trend started by the 00Z run to weaken that low and bring it in much farther south.   Takes away the big snow event that some previous runs and the ECMWF showed for the Seattle and Vancouver BC areas at that time.

 

You have the snow map for Oregon during that Wednesday night/Thursday storm?

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

Total snow from Wednesday morning through Friday morning...

 

gfs-deterministic-oregon-snow-48hr-92624

 

That would be nice.

 

39 here currently. Temp rose 5 degrees since midnight. What an arctic blast!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

Posted
Posted

The coldest point of this run is colder than last night's 00Z too. 516 thickness line gets pretty close to PDX late Tuesday into Wednesday. 

 

A better intrusion of cold sets us up well for things being more suppressed later in the week, which bodes well for snow chances.

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

...

 

You knew it was going to warm up a bit this morning. 

 

Just getting impatient ;). If models are correct it should drop to freezing by around sunset. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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TacomaWaWx Grand Master

TacomaWaWx

Posted
Posted

Raining good in Tacoma this morning. 0.21" so far to put us at 4.03" for January. We had 3.95" for all of January last year what an improvement. This is also day 13 in a row with rainfall. Been very wet since the AR in mid December.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Winterdog Veteran

Winterdog

Posted
Posted

Wish this massive dump of rain I’m currently getting was snow.

 

37 degrees.

12Z says we are screwed.  I'm guessing the NWS will let the watch expire and turn it into an advisory for all areas except where the warning is now in effect. I'm thinking less than 2" for my area anyway.

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

Mt. Hood snowpack now up to 66% of normal. A week ago it was around 20%.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Total snow through tomorrow afternoon per the WRF... this has been trending towards less snow for the last few runs.    

 

ww-snowacc-36-0000.gif

 

 

 

Here was the 00Z run for comparison...

 

ww-snowacc-48-0000.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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